From April 24 to 29, 2026 in Santa Marta, Colombia, a novel convention goals to place fossil gasoline transition on the center of the global time table. Within the context of fossil dependence and geopolitical tensions, the problem is going past the power transition: this is a query of trying out the capability of states to transform motion an crucial local weather objective that’s not lately dedicated to the desired stage. This can be a actual criminal, financial and fiscal lock that protects fossil capitalism, which must be disarmed.
The governments of Colombia and the Netherlands are organizing, from April 24 to 29, 2026, in Santa Marta (Colombia), the primary global convention devoted to the simply go out from fossil fuels. The problem is apparent: hanging fossil gasoline go out on the center of a political, criminal and fiscal street map in response to decreasing dependency, reworking provide and insist and strengthening global cooperation.
This isn’t any other summit: this is a check of credibility. In 2024, international power call for has greater additional, and fossil fuels proceed to occupy a central position within the international power combine. In spite of the adjustments presented to section out coal all through COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, then section out fossil fuels all through COP28 in Dubai in 2023, improve for fossil fuels continues and the power transition stays sluggish. International locations proceed to undertaking, by means of 2030, fossil manufacturing ranges well past what could be appropriate with a 1.5°C trajectory.
We due to this fact know two issues: the go out of fossil fuels is very important; however is lately no longer engaged on the required top.
The distance between the evolution of fossil gasoline manufacturing as deliberate by means of international locations (purple line) and what it will take to fulfill the 1.5 or 2°C temperature building up goals (blue and inexperienced traces). Manufacturing Hole Document, 2025
This assembly additionally takes position within the global context of “climate backlash” and the brutal reaffirmation of the fossil order.
In the US, the motto “Drill, baby, drill” has revived manufacturing, whilst geopolitical crises (Ukraine, Venezuela and, now, Iran) make the want to smash our dependence on hydrocarbons extra pressing than ever.
The “elephant in the room” of the local weather negotiations is basically that the global criminal framework protects fossil capitalism. The end result: a real criminal “lock-in” that contributes to keeping up the established order on fossil fuels. Because of this, monetary flows are nonetheless predominantly orientated in opposition to fossil fuels, in spite of the efforts of states, global establishments and sure personal actors. We want to transfer from the good judgment of partial decarbonisation of call for to an actual revision of the criminal structure, coherent between nationwide regulation, Eu Union regulation and global regulation, to make it appropriate with the go out from fossil fuels.
Methods to set priorities? We’re growing, in a coverage temporary devoted to fossil gasoline phasing out, a listing in addition to 14 proposals for concrete movements. Right here we provide a few of these proposals, which the Santa Marta Convention can also be a chance to comprehend.
Provide aid, within the blind spot of the global local weather regime
For thirty years, the global local weather regime has been basically constructed across the aid of greenhouse gasoline emissions. For a very long time, the problem of decreasing the availability of fossil fuels remained at the again burner. We’ve sought to scale back emissions with out critically organizing the closure of the infrastructures answerable for them.
Subsequently, the Santa Marta Convention must put at the desk problems that conventional local weather international relations has have shyed away from for too lengthy. Methods to get out of dependence on fossil fuels in power and business? Methods to prepare a discount in provide? How are we able to take away the global criminal limitations that also protected fossil capital, beginning with arbitration between traders and states, particularly below the Power Constitution Treaty?
In this closing level, 220 economists and legal professionals not too long ago known as on Colombia, in a letter to President Gustavo Petro, to withdraw from the Investor-State Dispute Agreement (ISDS) gadget and to collect a coalition of states made up our minds to withdraw from it. This place highlights a a very powerful level: getting out of fossil fuels isn’t just a question of local weather coverage, but additionally of disarming the criminal mechanisms that proceed to verify the profitability of fossil investments.
Fossil order, secure by means of a criminal, financial and fiscal “lock”
Fossil capitalism is due to this fact supported by means of a structuring criminal assemble. Fossil traders are secure by means of contracts, can consolidate their rights in long-term contracts, are liked by means of tax regimes, secured by means of insurance coverage and supported by means of private and non-private financing.
Privileged, fossil traders can nonetheless assault, sooner than particular courts, the international locations during which they create out their actions if the latter, deciding to right kind their carbon trajectory, violate their rights. Fossil traders are, if truth be told, legally secure by means of a lot of criminal tools. Thus, there are millions of bilateral funding treaties, plurilateral treaties, funding treaties, funding and mining codes, in addition to insurance coverage insurance policies and promises in opposition to dangers borne by means of traders.
Allow us to point out, as an example, a few of the plurilateral agreements: Power Constitution Treaty. Even though condemned by means of many Eu states, it continues to use below its sundown clause, which imposes a twenty-year duration sooner than successfully retreating from the settlement.
Subsequently, the phase-out of fossil fuels can not be thought to be a easy technological transition. We will have to assault the criminal, financial and fiscal constructions that perpetuate the fossilized order. This fossil “lock-in” leads to a tangle of infrastructure, rents, price chains, subsidies, contractual protections and criminal promises that make go out important and politically pricey.
Exploitation of fossil fuels can’t forget about planetary barriers, and the regulation will have to be advanced to take this into consideration. This calls for canceling profitability expectancies, neutralizing survival or termination clauses, keeping up promises presented by means of canceled funding contracts and redirecting monetary flows. This additionally contains tackling the conflictual nature of divestment, coping with stranded property and fighting petrochemicals from changing into a strategic haven for Carbon Majors.
Local weather litigation, important however no longer enough
Additionally, the opinion of the Global Court docket of Justice in 2025 reminds {that a} state that doesn’t take suitable measures to offer protection to the local weather gadget might endure global accountability. And that incorporates when it promotes the manufacturing or intake of fossil fuels, grants exploration licenses or maintains subsidies. Defossilization is due to this fact not only a fascinating horizon: it turns into a criminal and urban horizon, within the type of preventive duties of diligence, potency, coherence and local weather cooperation.
Local weather disputes introduced around the globe are already a part of this modification. They not prohibit themselves to condemning inactiveness, however query the normative inconsistencies, public improve and criminal measures that perpetuate the fossil criminal order. Then again, the pass judgement on himself is not going to shut both the wells or the gasoline terminals. It might smash the structure of criminal prohibition that protects fossil fuels, within the title of shielding human rights or the correct to a wholesome atmosphere. However he will be unable to make political selections, as an example to reserve the closure of those infrastructures.
Right here, Santa Marta can change into one thing extra than simply any other convention. This can be a second of fact in regards to the capability of states to control the shutdown of fossil gasoline process, relatively than suspending it within the title of so-called financial realism, even supposing that realism produces expanding local weather, monetary, well being or even democratic disruption.
Subsequently, the query is not whether or not we must transfer clear of fossils (the solution is sure!), however whether or not states will after all conform to take at the normative penalties and prepare it in a good and environment friendly means. As a result of getting out of fossils calls for a lot more than just “greening” what exists. We will have to prevent permitting the growth of sectors incompatible with the 1.5°C objective, redirect monetary flows, combine petrochemicals into go out insurance policies, deactivate criminal limitations to fossil capital and prepare a simply transition. Such a lot of avenues we increase in our coverage temporary.
It’s not imaginable to have fun the transition whilst the consolidation of the fossil economic system continues. In Santa Marta, the problem might be to grasp which states will after all agree to finish this shutdown and prepare, each in regulation and coverage, an effective and truthful go out from fossil fuels.
