Within the tournament, the SNP didn’t win the entire majority First Minister John Swinney sought within the 2026 Scottish election. Alternatively, between them the SNP and the Vegetables gained 73 seats, 57% of all MSPs. It’s the greatest ever contingent of pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood.
But between them the 2 events gained simply 41% of the regional record vote. The avowed purpose of the parliament’s mixed-member proportional electoral gadget is to provide a distribution of seats proportional to each and every birthday party’s percentage of the record vote. Alternatively, because the desk underneath presentations, this isn’t the primary time disproportionality has benefited the birthday party of presidency and its attainable allies. However it’s the largest discrepancy but – even more than that which favoured the Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition on the first two Holyrood elections.
SNP and Vegetables benefited closely from disproportionality.
Professor John Curtice, CC BY
Why was once the end result so disproportional? The explanation lies basically within the result within the constituencies. The primary-past-the-post gadget used to elect constituency MSPs displays a birthday party’s status relative to its competition relatively than just the proportion of the vote it has gained. In spite of profitable a somewhat modest 38% of the constituency vote throughout Scotland, the SNP had a 19-point lead over its nearest rival, Labour. Given additionally that SNP beef up is geographically somewhat flippantly unfold, this type of hole was once inevitably going to imply the birthday party would win the huge bulk of the constituency seats. Most effective the ones the place certainly one of its warring parties was once particularly sturdy in the community had been more likely to steer clear of its grab.
Within the tournament, the SNP gained 57 constituencies. Against this, if in each and every constituency the rises and falls in each and every birthday party’s beef up had matched precisely what came about throughout Scotland as an entire, the SNP would have gained 4 extra, 61 seats. Geographical variation within the events’ performances did cut back the SNP tally slightly – despite the fact that within the Highlands & Islands the SNP discovered itself compensated for its resultant internet lack of one seat within the allocation of record seats, leaving the birthday party with its ultimate general of 58 seats. General, the geographical variation in birthday party efficiency resulted within the SNP being 3 seats down on what would in a different way have came about.
Two of those losses had been to the Vegetables – one in Edinburgh and one in Glasgow. Because it came about, on the other hand, the consequent relief within the SNP’s illustration in Edinburgh lead the way for the Vegetables to pick out up a regional top-up seat on which they’d in a different way have narrowly misplaced out. Most effective the second one further SNP loss within the capital (to the Liberal Democrats) served to cut back the tally of pro-independence MSPs. Alternatively, the Inexperienced luck in Glasgow Southside enabled Labour to realize a top-up seat and thus did cut back the pro-independence tally through every other seat.
SNP percentage of record vote down
In brief, the positive factors and losses of constituency seats that arose on account of in the community remarkable birthday party efficiency diminished the entire tally of pro-independence MSPs through two – and thus helped to cut back the size of the disproportionality in favour of pro-independence MSPs. Nonetheless, the massive tally of pro-independence MSPs was once wholly unsurprising given the birthday party’s tallies at the constituency vote.
On the identical time, on the other hand, the SNP’s percentage of the regional record vote was once a report 11 issues underneath that within the constituencies. This additional served to extend the pro-independence disproportionality.
The desk underneath presentations what would have came about if all of the seats in each and every of the 8 areas have been allotted through proportional illustration. In impact it presentations what would have came about if the electoral gadget was once reaching its mentioned purpose. The SNP would have gained 18 fewer seats, scattered throughout each and every area excluding Highlands & Islands. Against this, the over-representation loved through the SNP in 2021 was once simply 4 seats. The mixed tally of SNP and Inexperienced seats would were best 60, 13 down on their exact general and 5 wanting a majority.
Reform UK would were a transparent 2d underneath birthday party record PR.
Professor John Curtice, CC BY
Holyrood’s electoral gadget was once devised through Labour and the Liberal Democrats within the Scottish Constitutional Conference. First of all it served their pursuits smartly. Alternatively, after touchdown the SNP a majority in 2011 on simply 44% of the vote, it has now, on a fair decrease tally, given the SNP and the Vegetables the most important ever majority of pro-independence MSPs. The primary legislation of politics is the legislation of accidental penalties.
A model of this text is to be had as a part of the Scottish Election Research 2026.
