In April 2026, Spain introduced a brand new legalization program for undocumented migrants, which is estimated to learn greater than 500,000 other folks. On the finish of 2025, Germany concluded the regularization marketing campaign introduced in 2023, for which greater than 80,000 other folks implemented. Those fresh examples to which shall we upload the Italian and Portuguese regularization campaigns all over the Covid-19 pandemic – display us that this sort of marketing campaign is on no account outstanding. As mentioned within the analysis, those campaigns are, if truth be told, an integral a part of Ecu migration insurance policies and supply a reaction to abnormal scenarios led to via employers’ call for for exertions, migrants’ aspirations to succeed in Europe and the restricted selection of prison channels to be had for this.
Even though they’re widespread, those campaigns however reason robust reactions within the political sphere, the place the problem of migration – and particularly abnormal migration – is the topic of extremely polarized debates. That is in particular the case in Belgium; but in addition in France, the place Bruno Retailleau – candidate of the Les Republicains birthday party within the upcoming presidential elections – not too long ago proposed to “kick Spain out of Europe”, at the grounds that its newest marketing campaign to keep watch over rights is opposite to what Europeans need.
Amongst combatants of granting prison standing to migrants, it’s frequently stated that this sort of coverage would inspire new migrants to return to Europe and keep there irregularly, with out legalization being supported via public opinion. In a prior survey carried out some of the Algerian inhabitants, we had been already ready to turn that the “pull factor” that this type of regularization marketing campaign would supposedly create does now not exist. Then again, the query of whether or not there may be public improve for regularization has won little consideration from researchers to this point.
Public opinion on migration
There may be now a wealth of scholarly analysis at the elements that form public opinion about immigration on the whole. Those findings let us know that particular traits (age, gender, schooling, ethnicity, and so on.), in addition to media protection and interpersonal touch with immigrants, affect attitudes towards immigration.
Moreover, as opinion polls such because the Eurobarometer display, the general public is most often poorly knowledgeable about immigration.
Is it due to this fact only a subject of higher informing the general public to extend improve for campaigns for law? Even though present research don’t let us definitively conclude that corrective knowledge will increase improve for immigration, they do point out that presenting factual knowledge within the type of narratives and private statements may also be extra persuasive than just presenting statistics.
In a similar way, analysis into the position of framing in discourse research has proven that appeals to feelings are a compelling verbal exchange technique within the box of migration. From these kind of research, we will conclude that each the content material and the type of the message are prone to affect other folks’s opinion concerning the law of undocumented migrants.
A brand new main survey of the Belgian inhabitants
In a contemporary clinical e-newsletter, we provide the result of an experiment built-in into a web-based survey of a panel of two,121 other folks representing the grownup inhabitants in Belgium.
For the reason that remaining regularization marketing campaign arranged in 2009, the Belgian political debate on immigration has grow to be considerably polarized. Due to this fact, the context does now not appear to be appropriate for the implementation of a brand new regularization marketing campaign, regardless of the presence of roughly 112,000 undocumented migrants within the nation in a rustic with a inhabitants of eleven.8 million, of which 20% are immigrants. To the contrary, the present centre-right federal executive led via the Flemish nationalist Bart De Wever intends as a substitute to put in force – within the phrases of the Minister for Asylum and Migration, Anneleen Van Bossuit – “the strictest asylum and migration policy ever adopted”, as a result of it’s supposedly “the policy that the people are calling for”.
To substantiate this declare, we sought to measure the real degree of improve some of the Belgian inhabitants for the legalization of undocumented migrants, but in addition to check the impact of 5 other messages at the degree of public improve for regularization campaigns.
Contributors in a survey carried out via the polling institute Bpact in March 2025 – had been due to this fact randomly assigned to a keep watch over crew that won no message and 5 experimental teams that won a message of about 100 phrases at the matter of regularization.
Those messages offered: (1) clinical knowledge about undocumented migrants in narrative shape; (2) the shifting tale of an undocumented migrant going through deportation and with the improve of his neighbors; (3) financial and social advantages from the legalization of undocumented migrants; (4) double requirements within the government’ remedy of undocumented migrants in comparison to tax evaders; and (5) inequalities between rich migrants who get pleasure from privileged get admission to to place of dwelling in Europe and deprived migrants with few choices to legally arrive in Europe.
In our survey, all members had been then requested to offer their opinion on granting prison standing to undocumented migrants on the whole, but in addition on legalization that might be restricted to undocumented migrants who paintings, in understaffed professions or the ones with everlasting social ties in Belgium. The explanation why you will need to distinguish between improve for various profiles of undocumented migrants is that even probably the most formidable regularization techniques, such because the Spanish migration style she offered this 12 months, situation regularization on positive standards.
The result of our analysis emphasize the significance of this differentiated way. Certainly, best 21% of respondents imagine that government must keep watch over all undocumented migrants. Against this, 53% are in choose of legalizing undocumented migrants who paintings, with relatively extra improve (54%) for regulating migrants in professions suffering from understaffing. Moreover, 45% of respondents supported granting prison standing to these with shut social ties within the nation. Additionally it is price noting that between 20% and 25% of members are neither for nor in opposition to the legalization of those other classes of other folks.
In regards to the affect of the 5 messages we examined, best two had an important impact. Presenting clinical knowledge on undocumented migrants in a story shape (message 1) resulted in an build up of about 7 share issues, favoring the legalization of undocumented migrants on the whole, in addition to those that paintings. In the meantime, publicity to the poignant lifestyles tale of an undocumented particular person (message 2) resulted in an 8 share level build up in improve for legalization for other folks with long-term relationships, or even a ten share level build up for the ones in professions going through shortages.
What must be accomplished with conditional public improve for law?
At the one hand, even though differentiating improve for the granting of prison standing in line with positive standards might elevate moral issues via risking the introduction of a hierarchy amongst immigrants between the ones deemed “deserving” and the ones deemed “undesirable” – this way may additionally, within the context of robust political opposition, function a kick off point for opening the talk on prison standing and steadily increasing get admission to to different migrant teams.
However, the find out about supplies two key insights for coverage makers. It displays that, opposite to positive preconceptions, there may be authentic public improve for the legalization of migrants. It additionally signifies that this improve in large part relies on the best way the coverage is gifted: the selection of message and its framing can considerably build up public improve and cut back perceived electoral possibility.
