It’s summer time grilling season, however for plenty of American citizens, surging costs imply red meat is now not what’s for dinner.
The price of red meat, having spiked since early 2025, is coming underneath much more drive. The latest is the screwworm outbreak that hit farm animals in Mexico and has now unfold to america, the place the farm animals herd has already fallen to ranges no longer noticed for the reason that Fifties, due partly to drought.
In the meantime, doable industry disruptions loom. Simply earlier than U.S. and Mexican industry negotiators started assembly on June 16-17, 2026, to speak about the long-standing deal binding North The united states, President Donald Trump warned that Washington won’t renew the settlement, which used to be negotiated all over his first time period, and as a substitute doubtlessly withdraw from it altogether.
As global industry and farm animals economists, now we have studied how North American industry has deeply built-in farm animals and red meat markets, influencing manufacturing, costs and the motion of animals and meat merchandise throughout Canada, Mexico and america. And since red meat is each a best agricultural import and export for the U.S., the trade is particularly prone to any disruptions to the prevailing industry deal. As one instance, the price of floor red meat is up via greater than 20% simply since January 2025.
Present industry uncertainty, reflecting Trump’s extra fragmented, bilateral method to negotiations, couldn’t come at a worse second for inflation-weary customers. The rising turmoil within the North American red meat marketplace dangers additional tightening provides and elevating costs.
A harmonized marketplace
Move-border industry used to be anchored in 1994 via the North American Loose Business Settlement, which established loose industry between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. It remained in position till Trump changed it with america–Mexico–Canada Settlement, which got here into drive in 2020. Not like NAFTA, that deal should be collectively reviewed each six years and features a 16‑yr sundown clause. Pork, like different items lined via the settlement, used to be exempted from the price lists that Trump imposed on the ones buying and selling companions in 2025.
Officially, all 3 nations should come to a decision via July 1, 2026, whether or not to increase the deal for any other 16 years or let it revert to a chain of annual opinions till the entire expiration in 2036. However Canada, whose dating with Trump is particularly fraught, is up to now sitting out the talks. As a substitute, U.S. and Mexican negotiators are assembly via themselves and feature now grew to become to agriculture, with red meat as one of the vital key sectors.
Pork costs, manufacturing selections and provide are intently tied in combination around the 3 nations, successfully making a unmarried North American red meat marketplace. Livestock and red meat merchandise transfer seamlessly throughout borders, because of the decrease price lists and harmonized rules that resulted from the 1994 and 2020 industry offers. The U.S. imports younger “feeder” farm animals to be fattened for slaughter from Mexico, in addition to mature, or “fed,” farm animals in a position for slaughter from Canada, either one of which in the end move to U.S. packing vegetation. To lend a hand meet client call for in Mexico, the U.S. additionally exports red meat merchandise and fed farm animals.
This integration could also be vital for keeping up america’ personal red meat provide. Virtually all U.S. farm animals imports are from Mexico and Canada, amounting to round 2.1 million head in 2024, valued at greater than US$3 billion. That quantity might glance small towards the overall quantity slaughtered within the U.S. that yr – round 32 million head – however having a gentle waft into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada is helping stabilize provides and organize costs.
The significance of that dating become transparent in 2025, when are living farm animals imports plunged via greater than 50%. That lower persevered into 2026, as younger farm animals imports from Mexico collapsed via greater than 80% because of the screwworm outbreak. The parasite has now been came upon in farm animals in south Texas and New Mexico, which triggered Canada to slap bans on are living farm animals from the area.
The place’s the meat?
The present industry talks transcend the meat sector, and agriculture extra widely, to surround problems comparable to regulations of foundation, exertions and environmental requirements, virtual industry and funding provisions that form North American provide chains. On the identical time, U.S. industry negotiators are bringing the Trump management’s extra protectionist and transactional method to the desk.
Pork is without doubt one of the necessary industry relationships at stake if negotiators fail to conclude the evaluation. In 2025, Mexico used to be the third-largest marketplace for U.S. red meat exports, exceeding $1.3 billion, whilst Canada used to be the fourth-largest marketplace at $874 million. At the turn facet, Canada and Mexico ranked 2d and 1/3, respectively, amongst nations exporting red meat to the U.S., with greater than $5 billion mixed.
U.S. farmers and ranchers, like this staff in Omaha, Neb., closely lobbied the primary Trump management for favorable provisions within the 2020 industry deal that changed NAFTA.
AP Picture/Nati Harnik
Trump’s risk however, the U.S. has so much to lose if it quits the 2020 deal altogether. Because the U.S. Perfect Court docket dominated towards Trump’s sweeping emergency price lists previous this yr, the management has a more potent incentive to stay its different gear in industry talks. And U.S. farm teams, a key Trump constituency, are strongly lobbying the Trump management to stay the deal.
If the U.S. exits the pact, North American industry would most probably revert to extra elementary global regulations, which might loose Mexico and Canada to impose their very own price lists, elevating prices for manufacturers, processors and, in the end, customers.
The 2 buying and selling companions would actually have a freer hand with nontariff limitations, comparable to requiring stricter inspections, extra bureaucracy and doable quotas on U.S. exports, all of which might decelerate industry. As a result of farm animals steadily go borders a couple of occasions all over manufacturing, even small delays can create vital disruptions.
The end result would most probably be much less environment friendly provide chains, fewer imported farm animals, tighter U.S. provide and, finally, upper costs. And a few U.S. ranchers are already bracing for a worst-case state of affairs, like what soybean farmers have already noticed when a key export marketplace disappears.
“We can’t lose demand for our products,” one rancher informed us. “Look what happened with soybeans last year when China quit buying.”
