When the USA and Israel introduced their moves on Iran on February 28 and Iran retaliated through concentrated on the Gulf Arab states, I used to be carefully tracking social media accounts from the area. I analysis Heart East politics, with a focal point at the Gulf, and the social media platforms I take advantage of are stuffed with other people dwelling within the area – together with western migrants, or as they have a tendency to taste themselves, expats. To my marvel, from a lot of them I noticed the similar message: “It is safe and normal here.”
This used to be no longer a trivial declare – those messages have been despatched because the international locations they are living in got here beneath assault. However the attitudes they exhibited replicate a large technique lengthy cultivated through Gulf Arab regimes. This targets to instil within the those that decide to are living there a way of safety, in addition to aspiration for the way of living on be offering and loyalty against the rustic for making that way of life to be had.
Extra importantly, the expats’ reactions uncovered the position that overseas citizens and influencers have performed in advancing a specific figuring out of “normality”. No longer best do they settle for authoritarian rule within the Gulf, they’ve been pushing out messages about lack of confidence somewhere else.
To be transparent, numerous overseas employees did go away the Gulf, reportedly within the tens of hundreds, when the war started. Besides, lots of the preliminary reactions on social media, whether or not other people stayed or opted to depart, projected this feeling of safety.
A part of the USA safety hub
Those regimes have advanced a picture designed to draw world connectivity, overseas capital and flows of other people and items. The UAE, particularly Dubai, has grow to be a logo of tax-free residency and comfort tourism. Qatar has established itself as dependable fuel exporter and world-class mediator. Saudi Arabia has introduced a sweeping reform mission recasting nationwide id and the dominion’s world position in championing “moderate Islam”, whilst Bahrain has labored early since independence to grow to be a regional banking hub.
Those state-building processes thrived beneath the protection umbrella of US and different western army bases around the Heart East. Firmly embedded in the USA sphere of affect, Gulf monarchies have benefited from valuable diplomatic duvet and get admission to to world markets. Different regional regimes, in the meantime – particularly Iran – have been excluded. This used to be extra frequently because of their hostility against the USA than for his or her brutal repression and disastrous governance at house.
By way of directing world consideration to threats similar to Iran, Gulf regimes solid a powerful sense of home normality. However in recent times, a much less dependable US regional coverage has made the protection association increasingly more unsure, prompting Gulf regimes to discover possible choices. With out renouncing deeper engagement with the USA, they welcomed cooperation with different powers out of doors the area, like China, in addition to the potential of nearer members of the family with Israel or even a modus vivendi with Iran.
Regardless of ongoing rivalries, together with inside the regional discussion board, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), regional war de-escalation and control gave the look to be the most popular approach to proceed insulating the Gulf normality. But the continuing destruction in Gaza, nearer US-Israeli alignment within the latter’s pursuit of regional dominance, and the following force on Iran’s community of proxies has undermined this subtle steadiness.
A US warplane refuels above Palm Islands, Dubai, March 2026 – the USA has been instrumental in offering safety for Gulf international locations. However is that now beneath risk?
SSgt. Paige Weldon/U.S. Air Drive Picture/Alamy Reside Information
Expats get political
The assault on Iran uncovered overseas citizens’ position in maintaining the picture of “normality”. Till then, expats and influencers embodied this normality through showing protected, privileged and apolitical lives.
I noticed posts making an attempt to divert consideration from the specter of struggle within the Gulf through other people claiming to really feel more secure beneath missile assaults in Dubai and Doha than “after 9pm” in London or Manchester. Different posts most well-liked the chance of missile assaults to being “bombed by 50% taxes”.
Those forms of feedback have a tendency to imitate narratives driven through far-right actions within the west round crime, taxation and immigration.
A viral pattern concentrated within the UAE however replicated throughout different Gulf international locations featured influencers responding to the query “Aren’t you scared?” with imagery of individuals of the ruling households and messages similar to: “No, because I know who protects us.” The UAE president’s much-publicised stroll in Dubai Mall adopted this paternalistic framing of safety.
After the preliminary surprise, many influencers returned to the previous type of messaging, no longer posting concerning the struggle and specializing in appearing their privileged “everyday” lives.
Controlling the message
It’s essential to take into account that Gulf Arab regimes possess tough censorship apparatuses and large nationwide safety and anti-cybercrime regulations that penalise content material deemed to “cause panic” or “disturb public order”.
Government in Saudi Arabia have been swift to remind citizens that “photography serves the enemy”, banning unofficial sharing of wear brought about through the struggle, whilst the UAE threatened serious sentences for other people posting unfavourable messages. There were studies of other people detained for posting the improper content material – greater than 300 in Qatar by myself. Heightened safety issues uncovered western expats to coercive practices normally reserved to political dissidents.
Having invested efforts in insulating their home tasks from exterior threats thru searching for political lodging with neighbours, together with Iran, Gulf leaders might now pursue a distinct technique. In reality, we’re already seeing some other approaches as more than a few Gulf international locations figure out their very own perfect way to the converting state of affairs of their area. Some, like Bahrain, stay antagonistic to Iran. Others, together with Saudi Arabia, are extra nuanced of their manner, having a look total to verify safety within the area.
However for regimes and expats alike, this can be a time of reckoning for the parameters maintaining “normality” within the Gulf. Maximum indisputably, the area won’t ever be the similar.
