When the United States and Israel introduced their moves on Iran on February 28 and Iran retaliated through concentrated on the Gulf Arab states, I used to be intently tracking social media accounts from the area. I analysis Center East politics, with a focal point at the Gulf, and the social media platforms I take advantage of are filled with folks residing within the area – together with western migrants, or as they have a tendency to taste themselves, expats. To my wonder, from a lot of them I noticed the similar message: “It is safe and normal here.”
This used to be now not a trivial declare – those messages have been despatched because the international locations they are living in got here beneath assault. However the attitudes they exhibited replicate a huge technique lengthy cultivated through Gulf Arab regimes. This targets to instil within the those that choose to are living there a way of safety, in addition to aspiration for the way of life on be offering and loyalty against the rustic for making that way of life to be had.
Extra importantly, the expats’ reactions uncovered the function that international citizens and influencers have performed in advancing a specific working out of “normality”. Now not most effective do they settle for authoritarian rule within the Gulf, they’ve been pushing out messages about lack of confidence somewhere else.
To be transparent, a large number of international staff did go away the Gulf, reportedly within the tens of 1000’s, when the struggle started. Besides, lots of the preliminary reactions on social media, whether or not folks stayed or opted to go away, projected this feeling of safety.
A part of the United States safety hub
Those regimes have evolved a picture designed to draw world connectivity, international capital and flows of folks and items. The UAE, particularly Dubai, has transform an emblem of tax-free residency and comfort tourism. Qatar has established itself as dependable fuel exporter and world-class mediator. Saudi Arabia has introduced a sweeping reform challenge recasting nationwide id and the dominion’s world function in championing “moderate Islam”, whilst Bahrain has labored early since independence to transform a regional banking hub.
Those state-building processes thrived beneath the protection umbrella of US and different western army bases around the Center East. Firmly embedded in the United States sphere of affect, Gulf monarchies have benefited from treasured diplomatic duvet and get admission to to world markets. Different regional regimes, in the meantime – particularly Iran – have been excluded. This used to be extra incessantly because of their hostility against the United States than for his or her brutal repression and disastrous governance at house.
By means of directing world consideration to threats equivalent to Iran, Gulf regimes cast a powerful sense of home normality. However in recent times, a much less dependable US regional coverage has made the protection association increasingly more unsure, prompting Gulf regimes to discover choices. With out renouncing deeper engagement with the United States, they welcomed cooperation with different powers out of doors the area, like China, in addition to the potential of nearer members of the family with Israel or even a modus vivendi with Iran.
In spite of ongoing rivalries, together with inside the regional discussion board, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), regional struggle de-escalation and control looked to be the most popular way to proceed insulating the Gulf normality. But the continued destruction in Gaza, nearer US-Israeli alignment within the latter’s pursuit of regional dominance, and the following drive on Iran’s community of proxies has undermined this refined stability.
A US warplane refuels above Palm Islands, Dubai, March 2026 – the United States has been instrumental in offering safety for Gulf international locations. However is that now beneath danger?
SSgt. Paige Weldon/U.S. Air Power Picture/Alamy Are living Information
Expats get political
The assault on Iran uncovered international citizens’ function in maintaining the picture of “normality”. Till then, expats and influencers embodied this normality through exhibiting protected, privileged and apolitical lives.
I noticed posts making an attempt to divert consideration from the specter of conflict within the Gulf through folks claiming to really feel more secure beneath missile assaults in Dubai and Doha than “after 9pm” in London or Manchester. Different posts most well-liked the chance of missile assaults to being “bombed by 50% taxes”.
Those types of feedback generally tend to imitate narratives driven through far-right actions within the west round crime, taxation and immigration.
A viral pattern concentrated within the UAE however replicated throughout different Gulf international locations featured influencers responding to the query “Aren’t you scared?” with imagery of participants of the ruling households and messages equivalent to: “No, because I know who protects us.” The UAE president’s much-publicised stroll in Dubai Mall adopted this paternalistic framing of safety.
After the preliminary surprise, many influencers returned to the previous type of messaging, now not posting in regards to the conflict and specializing in appearing their privileged “everyday” lives.
Controlling the message
It’s necessary to needless to say Gulf Arab regimes possess powerful censorship apparatuses and huge nationwide safety and anti-cybercrime regulations that penalise content material deemed to “cause panic” or “disturb public order”.
Government in Saudi Arabia have been swift to remind citizens that “photography serves the enemy”, banning unofficial sharing of wear and tear led to through the conflict, whilst the UAE threatened serious sentences for folks posting unfavourable messages. There were reviews of folks detained for posting the incorrect content material – greater than 300 in Qatar by myself. Heightened safety issues uncovered western expats to coercive practices usually reserved to political dissidents.
Having invested efforts in insulating their home tasks from exterior threats via in the hunt for political lodging with neighbours, together with Iran, Gulf leaders might now pursue a unique technique. In reality, we’re already seeing some other approaches as more than a few Gulf international locations figure out their very own very best way to the converting scenario of their area. Some, like Bahrain, stay adverse to Iran. Others, together with Saudi Arabia, are extra nuanced of their method, having a look total to verify safety within the area.
However for regimes and expats alike, this can be a time of reckoning for the parameters maintaining “normality” within the Gulf. Maximum definitely, the area won’t ever be the similar.
