Just about 10 months after agreeing to the primary segment of a ceasefire, Israel and Hamas are being forced – rather reluctantly – to transport to “phase 2.”
On July 30, 2026, President Donald Trump introduced that Hamas had accredited to disarm and switch safety and civilian affairs within the Gaza Strip to a technocratic Palestinian management – a key needful of segment 2 of the U.S.-brokered peace plan for Gaza, together with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave. Trump’s Board of Peace printed a highway map the next day for the way it’s to be completed.
To Trump, it was once a “major milestone” towards lasting peace. However as a professional on Palestinian politics, I see main impediments to implementation. The transfer to “phase 2” comes regardless of “phase 1” being not up to wholly a success. For the reason that ceasefire was once signed on Oct 9, 2025, Israel has killed greater than 1,100 Palestinians and shifted the “yellow line” at the back of which its forces had been because of withdraw from an agreed-upon 53% of Gaza territory to now over 65%. In the meantime, the day-to-day lifestyles stipulations for Palestinians within the enclave have in large part no longer advanced.
Additionally, it’s unclear how dedicated Hamas and Israel are to the following level. For now, neither can agree on a chain: Hamas says no disarmament with out Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists no withdrawal till disarmament.
Sturdy-arming Hamas
With little growth in bettering residing stipulations in Gaza and with Israel proceeding to kill its operatives, Hamas has confronted intense drive in fresh months to make additional concessions. Amid a reportedly heated inner deliberation, Hamas made up our minds that disarmament seems now because the least expensive trail for its motion – and for the two million Palestinians caught in Gaza.
The step forward required in depth drive by way of out of doors mediators from Egypt, Turkey and Qatar on Hamas to just accept the Board of Peace Top Commissioner Nickolay Mladenov’s highway map to segment 2.
It additionally handiest came about after Hamas had finished its inner elections and elected Khalil al-Hayya chairman of its political bureau. The former Hamas committee, established after the demise of Yahya Sinwar, had no consensus amongst them and may just no longer ship on consequential problems.
Or even then, the step forward may just no longer have came about with out the direct intervention of Mohammed Dahlan. In the beginning from Gaza, the United Arab Emirates-based exiled former Fatah chief is an influential businessman, powerbroker and best adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. He has invested effort and time in serving to Palestinians in Gaza by way of sending meals and clinical provides, paid for by way of his host nation.
In spite of being a senior chief of a rival birthday celebration, Dahlan has pledged to check out to bridge the distance between Hamas and rival factions. On the similar time, he additionally cuts a arguable determine because of his perceived closeness to the American and Israeli institutions, his falling out with present Palestinian Authority management and his heavy-handed techniques when he led safety efforts in Gaza prior to Hamas took price there in 2007.
Mohammed Dahlan has turn into a pivotal determine within the Gaza peace plan negotiations.
Lior Mizrahi/Getty Photographs
But for the folks in Gaza now, it sounds as if the hope of aid and restoration supersedes political bickering. Dahlan – coordinating his efforts with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a member of the president’s Board of Peace – stepped in and used his leverage to persuade Hamas to publicly settle for probably the most contentious portions of the street map that maintain the handover of energy in Gaza and Hamas’ disarmament.
Israeli defiance
Now, it sounds as if that Hamas hopes the onus will probably be at the U.S. and the world neighborhood to be sure that Israel complies with segment 2.
Israeli High Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has but to totally spell out his response to the street map. He stays in a gentle place regionally, particularly amongst a cupboard that comes with right-wing politicians who imagine that even simply symbolic Israeli concessions in Gaza could be tantamount to give up. In the meantime, Israeli Knesset elections are scheduled for Oct. 27, and Netanyahu’s recognition has been souring of past due.
Whilst in large part hewing to Netanyahu’s place, the Trump-sponsored segment 2 settlement nonetheless does no longer permit Netanyahu to claim overall victory towards Hamas. And anything else much less would resonate negatively with many Israelis.
However Netanyahu can’t publicly reject it, both, for the reason that Trump has trumpeted the “breakthrough.” As such, Netanyahu has handiest mentioned that there are disagreements between him and the Trump management referring to Gaza.
President Donald Trump met with Israeli High Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the White Space in a while prior to the peace highway map was once launched.
Maâayan Toaf (GPO)/Handout/Anadolu by way of Getty Photographs
Others in his cupboard move additional. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich
and Settlements Minister Orit Strook, each far-right politicians, have known as on Netanyahu to revoke any approval of the plan and convey the subject to a cupboard vote.
Below the Board of Peace file, the events have two weeks to finalize a time table for an settlement that may reach Hamas disarmament and cessation of Israeli assaults.
But Israel’s instant response to the deal was once the renewal of intense bombing in Gaza and the demise of greater than a dozen folks, which precipitated a rebuke from Mladenov.
The million-dollar query
Hamas’ reluctance and Israel’s defiance issues to a key drawback in imposing segment 2 of the peace plan for Gaza: an entire loss of agree with, evidenced by way of the truth that post-ceasefire Hamas has remained the manager army power in Gaza, and Israel hasn’t ever stopped its army marketing campaign and career of the enclave.
So why had been the Board of Peace and mediators insistent on shifting ahead with the plan now?
Numerous problems seem to be at play. The implementation of the peace plan for Gaza is possibly the one probability Trump has of burnishing his self-proclaimed symbol as a dealmaker at the global level prior to the U.S. midterm elections. That’s very true given the unresolved and politically unpopular conflict in Iran and little growth find a method to the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
But imposing the phrases of segment 2 isn’t any simple job. It calls on Hamas to show over each heavy weaponry reminiscent of missile launchers and lightweight guns, together with all weapons. It additionally calls for the dismantlement of the militant team’s tunnel community and guns production. This is some enterprise: It will require compliance from all participants and factions of the gang.
However it’s extra sophisticated than that. Israel has created and financed Palestinian militias running within the yellow space below Israeli keep watch over. In line with the plan, additionally they should disarm. All Palestinian clans and households in Gaza would even be a goal for disarmament, which might have an have an effect on on the way forward for Hamas and Palestinian armed fight.
In the meantime, Israel stays mum on how keen it’s to in reality withdraw from Gaza and stop its army marketing campaign. To that finish, the most important hurdle dealing with the implementation of the newest deal is sequencing. Hamas sees the disarmament procedure as a parallel one to Israel’s sluggish withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip; Netanyahu has mentioned that there will probably be no withdrawal from Gaza prior to Hamas’ complete and entire disarmament.
That Israeli place has now been followed by way of Board of Peace leader Mladenov – hanging Hamas and different Palestinian factions in an excessively tricky state of affairs.
In the back of the entire negotiations and disagreements over sequencing are the Palestinians in Gaza themselves. Some are hopeful that the implementation of the plan would alleviate their day-to-day depressing life and give a boost to stipulations. However similarly, many have misplaced hope within the Trump plan, as Israeli bombs proceed to show their properties into rubble.
And the newest highway map makes handiest passing connection with Palestinian self-determination, mentioning that it goals to “facilitate launching a credible political path that achieves self-determination and Statehood.”
That turns out many ways off. For now comes the tricky job of forcing reluctant events to stick to a highway map with many attainable bumps and potholes alongside the best way.
