The EU officially unblocked a €90 billion (£78 billion) mortgage for Ukraine on April 23 after Hungary and Slovakia dropped their opposition. This transfer came visiting every week after defeat in parliamentary elections introduced the 16-year tenure of Hungary’s high minister, Viktor Orbán, to an finish. He’s going to get replaced by means of Péter Magyar of the pro-Europe Tisza birthday celebration.
However at a summit concurrently going down in Cyprus, EU leaders struggled to agree on a club timeline for Ukraine. That is regardless of the phenomenal tempo of the war-torn candidate nation’s accession-related reforms. The hesitation of EU member states additionally comes despite the fact that the bloc has prioritised its growth schedule since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
In the meantime, any other candidate nation, Montenegro, is making growth on becoming a member of the bloc. Ambassadors from all EU member states stated on April 22 that that they had determined to arrange an “ad hoc working party” to draft an accession treaty for the Balkan country. The president of the Eu Council, António Costa, described this as “a big step” against club.
Montenegro needs to change into the EU’s twenty eighth member by means of 2028, concluding a procedure that started when it implemented just about twenty years in the past. It’s aiming to near formal negotiations by means of the top of 2026 so the accession treaty can then be followed and ratified by means of every of the EU’s 27 member states.
On the other hand, regardless of this formal growth, there are reservations in regards to the high quality of the reforms Montenegro is wearing out to align with EU requirements. Those reservations relate to the rustic’s efforts to struggle corruption, ensure that judicial independence and ensure a loose and pluralistic media atmosphere.
The accession treaty is thus anticipated to incorporate intensive transitional preparations, a duration after accession all the way through which a brand new member does no longer totally take part in sure EU programmes and insurance policies. This may give Montenegro time to conform.
4 frontrunners lately stand out within the EU club queue: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine.
Eu Union, 2025, CC BY-NC-ND
Officially, EU growth is a merit-based procedure pushed by means of a candidate nation’s compliance with political, financial and felony requirements. However politics play a task, too. That is showcased by means of the contrasting growth Ukraine and Montenegro have made against EU club.
Montenegro’s small dimension and club of Nato make consensus amongst member states on its accession slightly simple to succeed in. The similar can’t be stated for Ukraine. Its greater dimension, wartime context and the dimensions of its doable accession make Ukraine a much more contentious resolution for member states.
Politicisation of growth
The politicisation of the growth procedure, the place particular person member states form the accession procedure in keeping with their home personal tastes, is most likely the principle issue explaining why the EU has struggled to copy Montenegro’s growth throughout different candidate international locations.
Regardless of their readiness to transport ahead with opening negotiations, Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova’s formal accession growth has been stalled for a number of months. Selections associated with Ukraine’s EU club, specifically, had been vetoed a couple of occasions by means of Orbán.
The outgoing Hungarian high minister leveraged bilateral disputes with Ukraine to justify blockading growth in accession talks. He related issues over power safety, in addition to a confrontation over disrupted Russian oil provides via Ukraine, to the rustic’s EU trail. Orbán used those disputes to veto the outlet of negotiations.
Even Montenegro won’t experience a easy trail to EU club if Croatia continues to hyperlink bilateral problems equivalent to maritime disputes to growth. The confrontation between the 2 international locations essentially issues the Prevlaka peninsula. It is a strategically important house, which controls get entry to to Montenegro’s simplest deep-water bay and primary naval base.
In keeping with Zvezdana Kovač of the Centre for Civic Schooling, an organisation that screens Montenegro’s growth against becoming a member of the EU, Croatia is a “manageable risk” in Montenegro’s accession procedure. In a 2025 interview with the New Union Submit web site, she famous that Croatia’s responses “are not driven by a strategic desire to block Montenegro” and it keeps “a clear interest” in having EU member states as its neighbours.
Vetoes pushed by means of bilateral disputes have contributed to disillusionment in some candidate international locations. In North Macedonia, which first implemented for EU club in 2004, Bulgaria’s endured veto over deep-seated language and id disputes has helped convey to energy a central authority led by means of Hristijan Mickoski that not prioritises accession in any respect prices.
The EU’s various responses to protests and its contrasting members of the family with governments in Georgia and Serbia, two different candidate international locations, have additionally alienated many specifically in Belgrade.
Whilst the EU’s reaction to democratic backsliding in Georgia has been strict, concentrated on the ruling birthday celebration by means of enforcing visa restrictions for diplomatic passport holders, the solution to Aleksandar Vučić’s govt in Serbia has been extra wary. Serbian opposition teams have reacted to this with dismay.
The EU spoke back to Serbia’s dealing with of student-led protests with warning, last in large part silent in regards to the unrest.
Andrej Cukic / EPA
If the EU sees growth as central to its safety, choices can’t chance being derailed by means of one or two member states. Transferring from unanimity to certified majority balloting in enlargement-related choices would assist accelerate decision-making within the Council.
However, on the similar time, the EU should ensure that it does no longer admit international locations that later fail to uphold its requirements – a lesson drawn from Hungary’s an increasing number of authoritarian trajectory over the last 16 years of Orbán’s rule.
Whilst Montenegro seems to be coming into the general degree of its trail to EU club, disagreements over Ukraine’s timeline display that some member states have no longer essentially shifted their solution to the usage of growth as a geopolitical software.
For now, the EU is managing fairly than overcoming politicisation in its accession procedure. This dangers an growth coverage that continues to be inconsistent and unreliable.
