Armenia used to be as soon as extensively thought to be Russia’s closest best friend within the South Caucasus, with the 2 international locations keeping up deep political, financial and army ties. However forward of pivotal parliamentary elections on June 7, Armenia is going through the private disaster in its family members with Moscow because it secured independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
One week earlier than the elections, Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia, Sergei Kopyrkin, in protest at Yerevan’s rising ties with the EU.
Kopyrkin’s go back got here an afternoon after the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, warned Armenia that it used to be leaving itself uncovered to what he referred to as the “Ukrainian scenario” by means of deepening its cooperation with western establishments.
This diplomatic rift has been accompanied by means of financial drive. Russia has imposed a chain of restrictions on Armenian exports since overdue Would possibly, bringing up sanitary and technical considerations, whilst concurrently threatening to droop its fuel handle Armenia.
The leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, who make up the Eurasian Financial Union (EAEU), have additionally just lately demanded that Armenia grasp a referendum to choose from them or the EU.
A couple of years in the past, this rift would were tough to foresee. Russia has extensively been considered Armenia’s essential strategic spouse and safety guarantor for many years. Armenia joined the Moscow-led Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO) in 2002 and the EAEU later in 2015. It additionally hosts a Russian army base close to the north-western town of Gyumri, and is dependent closely on Russia for power provides and business.
Their partnership started to erode in 2024. That yr, Armenia iced up its participation within the CSTO, accusing the bloc of failing to intrude all through Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive towards the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh. The 2 international locations had prior to now fought a battle over the area in 2020, which ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire.
The Armenian govt, which is led by means of Nikol Pashinyan, therefore pursued nearer political and safety ties with the EU and US. It expanded defence cooperation with France and publicly wondered the worth of Armenia’s conventional dependence on Russia. Armenia additionally recognised the jurisdiction of the World Felony Court docket in 2024, regardless of the courtroom having issued an arrest warrant for Putin.
Those strikes culminated within the adoption of the EU Integration Act in March 2025, paving the best way for the Armenian govt to start out the method of gaining EU club. Months later, in December, the EU and Armenia officially followed a framework designed to deepen political, financial and safety cooperation.
Armenia’s westward engagement has turn out to be increasingly more visual during 2026. Greater than 30 Ecu leaders, together with Ecu Fee president Ursula von der Leyen and Ecu Council president António Costa, collected within the Armenian capital of Yerevan in early Would possibly for a summit of the Ecu Political Group.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio visited Armenia later within the month and signed a strategic partnership settlement with Armenia’s overseas minister, Ararat Mirzoyan.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two main wars over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh area.
Nemanja Cosovic / Shutterstock
Russia isn’t just shedding a longstanding best friend in Armenia. It’s also shedding certainly one of its major levers of affect within the South Caucasus: its key function as a mediator within the Armenia-Azerbaijan war.
Already in overdue 2023, Azerbaijan and Armenia initiated a procedure to agree on and officially outline their shared border. And during the last yr, the 2 international locations have held direct bilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and signed a declaration on peace on the White Area. They’ve additionally begun business and financial cooperation.
Those efforts have influenced public attitudes in Armenia. The share of Armenians reporting nationwide safety and border problems as the highest drawback going through their nation dropped from 44% in June 2025 to 21% in February 2026. Russia’s regional affect will simplest decline additional as Armenia and Azerbaijan transfer in opposition to longstanding peace.
Armenia’s selection
This broader geopolitical realignment paperwork the backdrop to Armenia’s upcoming elections. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract birthday party promotes a realistic “post-Karabakh” direction. This comes to acknowledging present realities, pursuing normalisation with Azerbaijan and its shut best friend Turkey, and regularly deepening ties with western companions.
The 2 major opposition forces – the Sturdy Armenia Alliance and the Armenia Alliance – recommend nearer strategic coordination with Moscow. They blame the present management for the lack of Nagorno-Karabakh and promise to halt the peace procedure with Azerbaijan and Turkey if they arrive to energy.
The Sturdy Armenia Alliance used to be based in 2025 by means of billionaire Russian citizen Samvel Karapetyan. The Armenia Alliance, however, is led by means of Robert Kocharyan, who served as Armenia’s president from 1998 to 2008. Kocharyan used to be additionally a board member of the Russian funding large, Sistema. He stepped down in 2021.
The Ecu Parliament has raised considerations about Russian interference within the election. Russia has been accused of accomplishing an enormous pre-election marketing campaign to undermine Pashinyan. This has allegedly concerned the unfold of on-line disinformation and a plan to move tens of hundreds of Armenians dwelling in Russia house to vote for the opposition.
As Armenians head to the polls, they are going to be deciding greater than the composition in their subsequent govt. They are going to be opting for between competing visions of the rustic’s long term. In some ways, they are going to be figuring out whether or not the post-Soviet generation of Armenia’s shut dependence on Russia is coming to an finish.
Polling means that the Civil Contract birthday party is on target to win. This implies Armenia will most likely proceed its normalisation procedure with its neighbours whilst deepening cooperation with western companions.
But Russia’s rising efforts to improve the Armenian opposition can’t be disregarded. A special consequence on June 7 may just carry bad revanchist sentiments, stalling regional peace efforts and slowing Armenia’s integration with Europe.
