Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace framework in Washington on August 8 after just about 4 many years of struggle. The 2 international locations, lengthy divided over territorial disputes, dedicated to finish hostilities, normalise family members and admire every different’s territorial integrity.
Brokered by means of america president, Donald Trump, it had the entire glitzy look of a complete peace settlement. However in truth, it’s simply a transfer in that path. There are nonetheless some ways it will spoil down.
The verdict of Armenia’s top minister, Nikol Pashinyan, to pursue peace is politically dangerous. Armenian army defeats to Azerbaijan in 2020 and 2023, and the lack of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh area, left deep scars.
Many Armenians feared concessions would legitimise Azerbaijan’s army beneficial properties or erode nationwide sovereignty. Diaspora voices warned of “rewarding aggression” and ignoring the rights of displaced Karabakh Armenians. But Pashinyan pressed forward, arguing a diplomatic agreement was once the one path to safety and prosperity.
His pivot clear of depending on Russia – a former safety guarantor whose credibility in Armenia has crumbled after failing to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing Nagorno-Karabakh – alerts a profound geopolitical shift. The USA is now the guarantor of safety, finishing the Minsk procedure that has been operating to get to the bottom of the struggle since 1994.
Sovereignty secured
One of the vital thorniest problems was once Azerbaijan’s call for for a land path throughout southern Armenia to hook up with its Nakhchivan exclave. Armenians feared this would imply ceding regulate of nationwide territory. The USA-brokered settlement resolves the dispute.
Armenia keeps complete sovereignty and jurisdiction over any new path. All shipping hyperlinks will function below Armenian legislation, with Armenian customs and safety in position. It is a marked development at the obscure “unimpeded” transit clause within the 2020 ceasefire, which left room for dispute.
Via enshrining sovereignty within the textual content, Armenia can reassure its public that the hall isn’t an extraterritorial carve-out, however a shipping hyperlink it’s internet hosting. On the other hand, the hall runs on the subject of the Iranian border. And the Iranians, additionally driven out in their influential position in Armenia by means of this deal, have already rejected it.
The peace deal creates a US-overseen transit space that may permit ‘unimpeded connectivity’ between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave.
Peter Hermes Furian / Shutterstock
The transit hall, which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey in addition to to Nakhchivan, can be named the Trump Direction for World Peace and Prosperity. The USA has secured a 99-year construction hire for the path. Deliberate infrastructure comprises highways, railways, pipelines and fibre-optic cables.
Armenia helps to keep prison regulate, however beneficial properties funding and transit earnings from those endeavours with out bearing development prices. Azerbaijan will achieve quicker, less expensive export routes for oil, fuel and manufactured items to Turkish and Eu markets. Armenia additionally stands to get pleasure from get entry to to Turkey if the border reopens – the Turks closed it in 1993 in make stronger of Azerbaijan.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed separate bilateral agreements with america on power, generation and infrastructure, signalling a parallel push to modernise their economies as they normalise family members. Georgia, historically probably the most pro-western and strategically essential state within the South Caucuses, has been sidelined by means of this association. It is a end result of its extra pro-Russia stance.
The Washington summit has capped years of intermittent mediation makes an attempt. What set this spherical aside was once sustained, high-level US engagement. The Trump management despatched envoys again and again, stored negotiations concerned about solvable problems, and re-framed the transit hall as a shared business mission.
US involvement could also be a integrated ensure. Via taking a long-term stake within the hall’s construction, Washington has an pastime in making sure the settlement is applied and revered. For Armenia, US backing gives reassurance towards renewed coercion from Azerbaijan sponsored by means of Turkey. And it opens the door for Azerbaijan to forge deeper ties with the west throughout a duration of unhealthy family members with Russia.
Hurdles forward
In spite of the celebratory signing, the peace deal faces important hurdles. The settlement sidesteps the plight of Armenian prisoners of warfare and detainees nonetheless held in Azerbaijan. It additionally ignores the suitable of go back for over 110,000 Armenian civilians who had been forcefully expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian opposition and diaspora teams have criticised the accord for “sidelining justice”.
Political demanding situations within Armenia additional cloud the deal’s long term. Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, has demanded that Armenia amend its charter to resign any territorial claims – in particular doing away with the 1990 declaration of independence that implied Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Armenia. Baku insists this alteration is a prerequisite for a “final” peace treaty.
Such exterior force is deeply delicate. Pashinyan has agreed in theory that Armenia wishes a brand new charter by means of 2027 to mirror post-war realities. But when the alterations are perceived as capitulation to Azerbaijani diktat, the home backlash might be intense.
Armenian demonstrators conflict with insurrection police throughout a rally towards Pashinyan in Yerevan in June 2024.
Narek Aleksanyan / EPA
The Armenian opposition – already angered by means of the lack of Karabakh – will most probably take hold of on any constitutional concessions as proof of nationwide humiliation. With parliamentary elections at the horizon in 2026, Pashinyan’s competitors are positioning to marketing campaign towards the peace deal.
They argue that his western-leaning “peace agenda” endangers Armenia’s sovereignty and safety. Some have hinted they might reject or renegotiate the settlement if they arrive to energy. Pashinyan’s birthday party was once polling poorly previous in 2025, and up to date native elections noticed beneficial properties for pro-Russian figures, suggesting a risky voters.
Armenia’s safety products and services have warned of conceivable international interference and destabilisation efforts because the elections means. Moscow, particularly, may covertly again Pashinyan’s hardline fighters or unfold disinformation to sway the vote, hoping to put in a extra Russia-aligned management that may undermine the deal.
The Washington framework has opened a trail to peace. However the coming months and years will resolve whether or not pragmatic pursuits can conquer entrenched distrust.
To be triumphant, Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to navigate a minefield of unresolved disputes and political minefields at house, all below the gaze of regional powers uneasy about their converting surroundings. Washington and Brussels will wish to stay engaged, to ensure compliance and assist ship early financial beneficial properties that fortify peace.
If all sides reneges – be it via renewed calls for, slow-rolling implementation or back-channel interference – hard-won growth may briefly resolve. This ancient step forward thus marks now not an endpoint however the get started of a mild balancing act.
