The Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, lately drew parallels between his nation’s revel in from its conflicts with the Soviet Union all the way through the second one global conflict and Ukraine’s present fight towards Russian aggression. The analogy has received really extensive traction.
It was once at a gathering with Donald Trump and a number of other Eu leaders on the White Area in August that Stubb invoked Finland’s wars with the Soviet Union – the iciness conflict (1939–40) and the continuation conflict (1941–44) – as a supply of hope for Ukraine. His message was once transparent: even within the darkest occasions, peace and independence are imaginable.
In 1944, Finland entered into an armistice settlement with Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union that ended hostilities. Nevertheless it got here at a heavy value. Finland retained its formal independence, however needed to make vital territorial concessions, together with the lack of Karelia and Petsamo provinces. It additionally approved critical restrictions on its sovereignty.
Stubb was once reputedly having a look to encourage Ukraine via appearing that survival and statehood are achievable, even beneath immense power, and {that a} sturdy and lasting peace is imaginable to ascertain. On the other hand, whilst the sentiment is comprehensible, the comparability between Finland’s scenario in 1944 and Ukraine’s present conflict with Russia is problematic and in all probability deceptive.
Ukrainian servicemen preserving a place within the Zaporizhzhia area of south-eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s sixty fifth Mechanized Brigade Press Carrier Handout / EPA
Initially, to indicate that Ukraine will have to settle for territorial losses as a part of a peace deal dangers legitimising Russia’s army aggression and undermines the rules of global regulation and nationwide sovereignty. It might ship a deadly sign that borders will also be redrawn via drive, which might embolden long term aggressors together with Russia.
It additionally must be recalled that the geopolitical context was once massively other in 1944. Finland’s wartime co-belligerent standing with Nazi Germany all the way through the continuation conflict wrecks the analogy. Finland joined forces with Germany to reclaim territory misplaced to the Soviet Union within the iciness conflict and, to begin with, Finnish troops complex deep into Soviet territory.
Ukraine’s scenario is basically other. Its restricted and necessarily defensive army incursions into the Russian Kursk area can’t be in comparison to Finland’s preliminary and intensive wartime conquests.
Additionally, drawing parallels between Finland’s tacit alliance with Nazi Germany and Ukraine’s present western strengthen best dangers feeding Russian propaganda. Moscow has lengthy attempted to painting Ukraine’s executive as neo-Nazi, supported via like-minded instigators within the west.
This has allowed the Kremlin to depict Russia’s so-called particular army operation as a continuation of the second one global conflict. Even an oblique comparability between Finland then and Ukraine now may just improve those false narratives.
Prosecuting wartime leaders
Beneath the 1944 armistice settlement, Finland was once additionally required to prosecute its leaders deemed accountable for the conflict effort towards the Soviet Union. The then-Finnish president, Risto Ryti, was once sentenced to 10 years in jail whilst a number of different ministers had been imprisoned for shorter sessions of time.
To even suggest that Ukraine will have to demote and prosecute its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and his executive as a part of a peace agreement could be morally outrageous and politically disastrous. This kind of advice would meet adversarial Russian calls for, undermine Ukraine’s democratic legitimacy and ridicule its sovereignty.
The problem of reparations highlights the problematic analogy much more. Finland was once pressured to pay heavy reparations to the Soviet Union as a part of the 1944 settlement, similar to US$5.3 billion (£3.9 billion) in 2025. Those reparations had been paid over a length of 8 years, basically within the type of business merchandise.
In Ukraine’s case, the jobs wish to be reversed. Russia will have to be held in charge of its unprovoked invasion and the dying and destruction it has led to. Russian reparations will have to due to this fact be a part of any long term peace settlement, in conjunction with justice for conflict crimes. Those come with the pressured abduction of an estimated 20,000 Ukrainian youngsters who are actually held in Russian territory.
In spite of everything, the long-term penalties of Finland’s 1944 settlement integrated a long time of Soviet affect over its home and international coverage. A Soviet keep watch over fee operated within the Finnish capital, Helsinki, from 1944 to 1947. This successfully undermined Finnish sovereignty.
The keep watch over fee oversaw the prosecution of Finnish wartime leaders and the banning of political events and organisations deemed unwanted via Moscow. It additionally necessarily took keep watch over of Helsinki’s global airport. Ukraine will have to be spared a an identical destiny. Any peace deal will have to be certain Ukraine’s complete independence and freedom from long term Russian interference.
Risto Ryti, who served as Finland’s president from 1940 to 1944, was once imprisoned for crimes associated with the Continuation conflict.
Wikimedia Commons
Historic analogies will also be tough, however they will have to be used with care. Stubb’s remarks had been most probably made with the most efficient of intentions. He more than likely additionally supposed to indicate that Finland has a singular figuring out of what it method to combat for independence towards its tough neighbour, whether or not or not it’s known as Russia or the Soviet Union.
On the other hand, the usage of Finland’s 1944 armistice as a type for Ukraine dangers sending a dangerous message. Ukraine’s fight isn’t just about survival, it’s about justice, sovereignty and the rejection of imperial aggression. The rustic merits a long term loose from career and coercion, and all western democracies wish to strengthen it to score this.
