Catalan politics now appear a long way got rid of from the notorious and unauthorized independence referendum of 2017. It was once violently suppressed by way of nationwide police forces, sparked well-liked unrest, sparked a constitutional disaster in Spain and brought on leaders corresponding to Carles Puigdemont to escape the rustic.
The 2024 regional elections have been a large distinction. For greater than a decade, Catalonia has been ruled by way of pro-independence events – whether or not Puigdemont’s right-wing Junta or the left-wing ERC – however it’s the PSC (the Catalan department of Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Birthday party) that has emerged because the power with essentially the most votes. They controlled to shape a minority executive with the reinforce of the ERC and the communes, additionally at the left.
The method, as the rush for Catalan independence was identified, perceived to have come to an finish.
However in the middle of this nice alternate, a brand new birthday party, the Alliance of Catalans (AC), entered the Catalan parliament for the primary time. Regardless of profitable most effective two of the area’s 135 seats in 2024, this new power now has an enormous affect at the political panorama of Catalonia and, by way of extension, Spain.
The politics at the back of the method
Alianca Catalana is a far-right birthday party that advocates independence and is explicitly towards immigration. It’s led by way of Silvia Oriols, the mayor of Ripoll, a the city of simply over 10,000 population.
With only one.5% of parliamentary illustration, the AC would possibly appear marginal, however it isn’t. Its look alerts a reconfiguration of Catalan politics after the method and is reworking the nationalist correct, a political area historically ruled by way of the Juntas.
For years, Catalan parliamentary politics has centered nearly on one factor. Independence overshadowed virtually the whole thing else, together with the variation between left and correct, which intended that events like Junts and the ERC most commonly competed for management inside the similar independence bloc.
As the method misplaced momentum, since neither unilateral independence nor a negotiated referendum was once accomplished, new problems seemed at the time table. Immigration, safety and id now dictate Catalan politics, as in Spain and different portions of Europe.
On this new landscape, the AC is gifted as a “purer” nationalist possibility: unequivocally pro-independence, intransigent against the Spanish state and overtly adversarial to immigration, particularly Muslim immigration. He proposed an legit ban on face coverings and allegedly avoided migrants from gaining access to public services and products in Ripoll.
The newest polls display how fashionable the AC message has been. The newest survey by way of the Heart for the Learn about of Public Opinion of Catalonia places AC tied with Juntas within the puts. Without reference to whether or not those numbers materialize within the subsequent election, the message is apparent: AC is now not a marginal participant.
Catalan Federation marketing campaign in Plaza Molina in Barcelona. Pere López Brosa/Wikimedia Commons, CC BI-SA The Junta downside: popularity and festival
All political events compete for votes inside an ideological area, which is in most cases outlined as a place at the left-right axis. Their electoral power is dependent basically on their popularity and credibility amongst electorate of their house, and now not on particular political proposals.
When a brand new birthday party provides a clearer or extra persuasive message, it may displace a longtime birthday party from its area. That is what is going on to Juntsu and lots of different primary political events.
After ruling Catalonia for over a decade and guiding the method, Juntes are actually in opposition in Barcelona and Madrid. In some ways it failed: independence was once now not accomplished and in 2023 it supported the re-election of Pedro Sánchez as Top Minister in alternate for a political amnesty.
AC without delay exploits post-process frustration. It items itself as a brand new power that opposes conventional nationalist events such because the ERC and Junts, however may be unwilling to barter with Madrid.
Junts’ fresh technique suggests he’s feeling the drive. In October 2025, he “severed” members of the family with Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, however his reinforce wavered for a while. So it sort of feels Juntos’ transfer was once now not a surprising coverage alternate, however an try to prevent AC’s growth by way of being harder, extra confrontational and extra skeptical about negotiations with Madrid.
Then again, by way of transferring to the best, in particular on immigration, Junts may legitimize the time table of the birthday party that threatens to interchange her.
The upward thrust of the AC suits right into a broader global development of consolidation of authoritarian and radical right-wing forces. One thing equivalent is going on in Spanish nationwide politics, the place the far-right Vox birthday party has reconfigured the contest and continues to push the Folks’s Birthday party to the best. In Catalonia, AC performs a equivalent function to Voc: difficult the hegemony of a conventional and consolidated right-wing birthday party.
AC isn’t similar to Wok. It’s much less conservative on some problems and has its roots in every other nationalist custom, however ideologically it belongs to the unconventional correct: exclusionary, nativist and adversarial to pluralism.
Immigration performs a central function on this shift: because it turns into extra outstanding, right-wing events really feel extra at ease surroundings the phrases of the controversy, whilst the left struggles to reply with out inside tensions. Catalonia isn’t any exception.
Junta’s downside is the Spanish executive’s downside
The present Spanish executive is in accordance with a delicate parliamentary steadiness. The PSOE laws with Sumaro, a left-wing power that, regardless of its good fortune within the 2023 elections (3 million votes and 31 seats), is structurally susceptible. This can be a all of a sudden shaped electoral coalition of greater than ten events, with restricted territorial roots and which carried out poorly within the 2024 regional and Ecu elections.
The PSOE itself may be below drive, confronted with more than one scandals affecting the president and his closest circle.
With no new finances authorized from 2022, the federal government survives basically as a result of there is not any viable parliamentary choice. As well as, he has the reinforce of regionalist and impartial events, together with Junts, who can be harm by way of the in all probability choice: a coalition between the PP and Vox that might consolidate energy in Madrid.
Junts’ reinforce for the Sánchez executive makes it the deciding birthday party, because it must approve any no-confidence movement or no-confidence vote.
Force from the AC revives Junts’ quandary in 2023. Toughen for the PSOE and Sumar executive strengthens its symbol as a collaborator of Madrid, however alignment with the PP and Vok will be the similar or worse. In each instances, the AC advantages from presenting itself as the one coherent nationalist possibility at the correct.
A brand new section
As reinforce for the method fades, Junts’s scope of political authority adjustments. He’s now not competing to steer the independence motion, however to constitute the Catalan nationalist correct. This explains his flip to harsher rhetoric on immigration and id, which dangers normalizing the a long way correct and reshaping Catalan politics ceaselessly.
For now, the establishments stay solid. The left has a slim majority within the Catalan parliament and it is very important remember the fact that opinion polls aren’t election effects. However the terrain is converting.
AC’s parliamentary debut alerts the imaginable get started of a brand new section. Whilst the processes have outlined Catalonia for a decade, its aftermath is also marked by way of a wholly other problem: the upward thrust of the nationalist far-right, which might reshape Spanish politics.
