Catalan politics now seem to have come far from the notorious, unauthorized independence referendum of 2017. It used to be violently suppressed through nationwide police forces, resulted in in style rioting, sparked a constitutional disaster in Spain and noticed leaders like Carles Puigdemont flee the rustic.
The 2024 regional elections had been a large distinction. For greater than a decade, Catalonia has been ruled through pro-independence events – whether or not Puigdemont’s right-wing Junts or the left-wing ERC – however it’s the PSC (the Catalan wing of Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Birthday party) that has emerged as the largest pressure. They controlled to shape a minority executive with the reinforce of the ERC and the left-wing communes.
The processes, as the rush for Catalan independence has come to be identified, have apparently come to an finish.
However amid this higher trade, a brand new birthday celebration, the Alianca Catalana (Catalan Alliance, AC), entered the Catalan parliament for the primary time. In spite of successful most effective two of the area’s 135 seats in 2024, this new pressure now has an enormous affect at the Catalan – and subsequently the Spanish – political panorama.
Political post-process
Alianca Catalana is a far-right birthday celebration that advocates independence and is explicitly towards immigration. It’s led through Silvia Oriols, the mayor of Ripoll, a the town with a little bit greater than 10,000 population.
With only one.5% of parliamentary illustration, the AC would possibly appear marginal, however it isn’t. Its emergence alerts a reconfiguration of Catalan politics after the method and is remodeling the nationalist correct, a political house historically ruled through the Juntas.
For years, Catalan parliamentary politics used to be in point of fact only one factor. Independence overshadowed nearly the whole lot else, together with the left-right divide, which intended that events just like the Junta and the ERC most commonly competed for management inside of the similar independence bloc.
As the method misplaced momentum – without a unilateral independence or referendum to turn for it – new problems entered the schedule. Immigration, safety and identification now dictate Catalan politics, just like in Spain and different portions of Europe.
On this new landscape, the AC gifts itself as a “purer” nationalist choice: unequivocally pro-independence, uncompromising in opposition to the Spanish state and overtly opposed to immigration, particularly Muslims. He proposed an reputable ban on face coverings and allegedly blocked migrants from getting access to public services and products in Ripoll.
Contemporary polls display how standard the AC message has been. The most recent survey through the Catalan Heart for the Learn about of Public Opinion places AC degree with Giants within the puts. Whether or not those numbers materialize within the subsequent election or now not, the message is obvious: AC is now not a marginal participant.
Barcelona. BI-SA Junts downside:
All political events compete for votes inside of an ideological house, which is usually outlined as the placement of the left-right axis. Their electoral power is dependent basically on their popularity and credibility amongst electorate of their house, now not on particular coverage proposals.
When a brand new birthday celebration provides a clearer or extra persuasive message, it might probably push a longtime birthday celebration out of its house. That is what is going on to Juntsu and numerous different mainstream political events.
After ruling Catalonia and main the court cases for greater than a decade, Juntes now unearths himself in opposition in Barcelona and Madrid. In some ways it failed; independence used to be now not accomplished, and in 2023 it supported the reappointment of Pedro Sánchez as top minister in trade for a political amnesty.
AC immediately exploits post-process frustration. It gifts itself as a brand new pressure that opposes conventional nationalist events such because the ERC and Junts, but additionally does now not need to negotiate with Madrid.
Junts’ fresh technique suggests he’s feeling the drive. In October 2025, he “severed” members of the family with Pedro Sánchez’s ruling PSOE, however its reinforce have been wavering for a while. Juntos’ transfer used to be subsequently now not a surprising coverage trade, however an try to gradual AC’s advance through showing more difficult, extra confrontational and extra skeptical of talks with Madrid.
Alternatively, through transferring to the precise, particularly on immigration, Junts can legitimize the schedule of the very birthday celebration that threatens to switch him.
The upward push of the AC corresponds to a much broader world pattern of consolidation of right-wing authoritarian and radical right-wing forces. A equivalent tale is taking part in out in Spanish nationwide politics, the place the far-right birthday celebration Vox has reshaped the contest and continues to push the PP (Other people’s Birthday party) additional to the precise. In Catalonia, AC performs a equivalent position to Voc; it demanding situations the hegemony of the standard, established right-wing birthday celebration.
AC isn’t just like Wok. It’s much less conservative on some problems and rooted in a definite nationalist custom, however ideologically belongs to the novel correct: exclusionary, nativist and opposed to pluralism.
Immigration performs a central position on this shift – because it turns into extra outstanding, right-wing events really feel extra relaxed environment the phrases of the talk, whilst the left struggles to reply with out inner tensions. Catalonia isn’t any exception.
Junto’s downside is the Spanish executive’s downside
Spain’s present executive rests on a delicate parliamentary stability. The PSOE regulations with Sumaro, a left-wing pressure that, regardless of its luck within the 2023 elections (3 million votes and 31 seats), is structurally susceptible. The impulsively assembled electoral coalition of greater than ten events has restricted territorial roots and accomplished deficient leads to the 2024 regional and Ecu elections.
The PSOE itself could also be below drive, dealing with a couple of scandals affecting Top Minister Pedro Sánchez and his internal circle.
Without a new price range handed since 2022, the federal government survives in large part as a result of there’s no viable parliamentary choice. As well as, he depends upon the reinforce of regionalist and pro-independence events, together with Juntas, all of whom can be worse off than the perhaps choice: a PP-Voc coalition that may consolidate energy in Madrid.
Younts’ reinforce for the Sánchez executive makes her a kingmaker – she must approve any no-confidence vote.
Force from the AC revives the Junts quandary of 2023. Reinforce for the PSOE-Sumar executive strengthens its symbol as a collaborator with Madrid, however alignment with the PP and Vok will be the identical or worse. In each instances, the AC advantages from presenting itself as the one constant nationalist choice at the correct.
A brand new segment
As reinforce for the method fades, Junts’s box of political festival is converting. He’s now not competing to guide the independence motion, however to constitute the Catalan nationalist correct. This explains her shift to harsher rhetoric on immigration and identification, which dangers normalizing the some distance correct and reshaping Catalan politics endlessly.
For now, the establishments stay solid. The left has a slim majority within the Catalan parliament and it is very important needless to say opinion polls aren’t election effects. However the terrain is transferring.
AC’s parliamentary debut alerts the conceivable get started of a brand new segment. Whilst the processes have outlined Catalonia for a decade, its aftermath could also be marked through an excessively other problem: the upward push of the nationalist far-right, which might trade Spanish politics.
