With the social democrat Olaf Scholz conceding defeat to the centre correct in Germany’s election, the person in all probability to be named the following chancellor will likely be Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chief Friedrich Merz.
The CDU has emerged as the most important celebration with the far-right Selection for Germany (AfD) 2nd – its best-ever lead to a federal election.
Merz should compile a coalition govt, which can contain some difficult negotiations, however Europe’s leaders will also be anticipated to regard him as a “chancellor in waiting”. Listed here are 8 issues to grasp concerning the guy about to take one of the crucial essential political positions in Europe.
1. He’s taking his celebration additional to the appropriate
The very first thing you wish to have to find out about Merz is that he and previous chancellor Angela Merkel had been longstanding opponents and sparring companions. Again within the early 2000s, after Merkel was chief of the CDU, she ousted Merz from his function because the celebration’s parliamentary chief, taking at the function herself.
Merkel by no means made Merz a minister, and certainly he made up our minds to not run for parliament once more in 2009, having already begun to concentrate on his more than a few personal sector pursuits (as a legal professional but in addition an organization board member). Merz used to be crucial of Merkel’s resolution to shift the CDU to the centre flooring and used to be involved it might open up house for the AfD to transport into.
When Merz did develop into celebration chief in 2022, he started rewriting of the celebration’s programme in a a lot more conservative path.
2. He’s an financial liberal
Merz takes an overly other financial view to Merkel, no less than within the latter years of her chancellorship. In 2003, he argued for a thorough simplification of Germany’s tax regulations such {that a} tax go back may well be calculated at the again of a lager mat.
His celebration’s 2025 manifesto argued for deregulation and tax cuts to spice up Germany’s slow enlargement. A part of this, Merz argued, must be funded by way of extra conditionality being implemented to welfare recipients, with an entire prevent on advantages for recipients who refused to take any type of paintings on. In 2024, he additionally stated he’d do “everything” to prevent the EU taking over commonplace debt.
3. He’s a social conservative
In his more youthful years, Merz used to be within the Catholic early life motion. He has a document of balloting towards abortion and has made a couple of awkward feedback about homosexuality (announcing of Klaus Wowereit, a homosexual mayor of Berlin, “I don’t mind as long as he doesn’t come near me”). In a atypical remark, he as soon as referred to his spouse and daughters as proof he didn’t have an issue with ladies. In a TV debate with Scholz, Merz used to be requested about Donald Trump’s popularity of best two genders, and reacted: “You can understand his position.”
In 2000, Merz spoke of a German Leitkultur (loosely, “leading culture”, as contrasted with “multiculturalism”) – a time period now in commonplace parlance in Merz’s CDU.
4. He’s a transatlantacist
From 2009 to 2019, Merz chaired the Atlantic Bridge, a outstanding German organisation dedicated to strengthening family members between Germany and america. He’s a transatlanticist by way of intuition and just lately despatched a hand-written be aware to Donald Trump congratulating him on his election, noting his “strong mandate for leadership”. Alternatively, in a commentary on election evening, Merz pledged to “achieve independence” from america and recognised that Trump is “largely indifferent” to Europe’s destiny.
5. He’s pro-Ecu
With some caveats (for example round commonplace debt and cooperation over refugees) Merz is a pro-Ecu. He used to be a member of the Ecu parliament between 1989 and 1994, and has been transparent that nearer Ecu cooperation is an crucial a part of Europe’s solution to Trump.
He has additionally patched up family members with Ecu Fee president Ursula von der Leyen (with whom, as a Merkel best friend and CDU liberal he had little instinctive appeal), and sees doable in cooperation along with her and with Manfred Weber, a CSU baby-kisser and chief of the Ecu parliament’s centre-right MEPs.
Merz has additionally pledged to discuss with Warsaw and Paris to rebuild family members after a troublesome length beneath Scholz.
6. His dealings with the a long way correct had been arguable
Merz has been constantly inconsistent in relation to family members with the AfD. He mused in 2023 about the potential of cooperation at an area stage, noting that “we are obliged to recognise democratic elections”, ahead of rowing again.
In November 2024, Merz stated he and his celebration would no longer try to go law within the nationwide parliament if it intended depending on AfD votes to do it. However he surprised the country in January 2025 when he did exactly that – pushing ahead a hardline immigration plan with the AfD’s beef up.
The volte face earned him complaint from his nemesis, Merkel – even supposing that’s no longer one thing prone to have involved him unduly.
7. He’ll be hemmed in by way of coalition politics
Merz will wish to strike a take care of more than one different events to be able to govern. That may make his flagship programme of tax cuts onerous to reach, since cuts to welfare or local weather spending can be anathema to all doable coalition companions.
Scholz has conceded defeat.
EPA
Germany’s different events as a substitute need Merz to rethink Germany’s “debt brake” – the constitutional regulations that prohibit govt borrowing. He’ll be beneath much more force to take action given a extensive consensus over the wish to carry defence spending.
In all probability it’ll take a conservative fiscal hawk to collect the vital two-thirds majorities in each chambers of parliament for exchange.
8. He’d love to discuss with… Tibet?
In the end, amongst moderately skinny pickings in standard reporting on Merz’s leisure pursuits, a softball interview remaining summer time advised us he likes trendy classical song and Beethoven, and at some point hopes to discuss with Tibet.
However vacations will likely be a way from his priorities in this day and age. There’s a robust want in Europe for Germany to play a extra energetic management function as soon as once more. At a time when Trump is noisily backing clear of underscoring Ecu safety and supporting Ukraine, Merz is keenly conscious about the void being unfolded, and is made up our minds that Germany, with its Ecu allies (together with even the United Kingdom) will step up.
