As local weather alternate drives emerging temperatures and adjustments in rainfall, Mexico and the United States are in the midst of a war over water, hanging an extra pressure on their courting.
Partially because of consistent droughts, Mexico has struggled to care for its water deliveries for a lot of the final 25 years, in line with a water-sharing settlement between the 2 nations that has been in position since 1944 (agreements between the 2 regulating water sharing have existed because the nineteenth century).
As a part of this 1944 treaty, arrange when water was once now not as scarce as it’s now, the 2 countries divide and percentage the flows from 3 rivers (the Rio Grande, the Colorado and the Tijuana) that vary alongside their 2,000-mile border. The method is overseen via the World Boundary and Water Fee.
Mexico will have to ship 430 million cubic metres of water in keeping with 12 months from the Rio Grande to the United States, whilst the United States will have to ship just about 1.85 billion cubic metres of water from the Colorado River to fortify the Mexican border towns of Tijuana and Mexicali.
Water deliveries are measured over a five-year cycle, and the present one leads to October. Mexico struggled to ship its water “debt” within the final cycle which resulted in 2020, the usage of waters from reservoirs on the final minute to fulfil its duties. This left northern Mexico with seriously depleted water ranges.
Because of rising tensions over water, the Biden management attempted to barter and paintings with the Mexican govt to give a boost to the velocity with which Mexico’s water deliveries have been happening in 2024.
However with Donald Trump’s go back to place of business, the United States has taken a extra competitive stance with Mexico to deal with its water money owed to the United States. For the primary time in over 50 years, in March of 2025, the United States refused to ship water from the Colorado River to Tijuana – a town of just about 2 million other people – in an effort to power Mexico to ship extra water to Texas.
Mexico has since replied via shifting 75 million cubic metres of water, however that is only a drop within the bucket, as Mexico stays 1.5 billion cubic metres in debt. And this did little to meet the Trump management, which threatened to withhold extra water from Mexico. It additionally demanded the resignation of Maria-Elena Giner, who led the World Boundary and Water Fee, in April.
Quite than having a look at diplomatic answers, Trump has accused Mexico of stealing Texans’ water and has promised to stay escalating penalties if it doesn’t ship at the treaty phrases.
Rainer Lesniewski/Shutterstock
For farmers in Texas, the water scarcity has left them not able to plant their plants as they don’t have sufficient irrigated water to take action. A 12 months in the past, the final sugar mill in southern Texas close down because of the loss of water being delivered via Mexico.
However Mexican farmers consider that the settlement is binding handiest when Mexico has sufficient water to meet its personal wishes – and with drought stipulations, which means that no extra to be had water can also be despatched. Proceeding drought stipulations in Mexico have plagued farmers within the north, who additionally depend on water for his or her plants. Discounts in rainfall in recent times have additionally left Mexico suffering with water provides for its personal electorate in city spaces.
No operating water
In recent times, drought has specifically affected the town of Monterrey in northern Mexico. In 2022, faucets ran dry with a lot of its 5 million citizens with out operating water for months. Flushing bathrooms, laundering clothes, washing dishes, bathing all required hauling water via hand from wells.
Locals protested the truth that the most productive water infrastructure went to factories, now not citizens. One issue is that water call for has skyrocketed because of extra production in border towns in Mexico.
Whilst larger production poses one drawback, a good larger drawback lies with agriculture, and the forms of vegetation being planted, in addition to the best way they’ve historically been watered. As an example, avocados require 91 litres an afternoon – 4 instances extra water than the manufacturing of oranges, and ten instances greater than the manufacturing of tomatoes.
Alfalfa is any other thirsty crop being mass produced in drought-prone states, corresponding to Texas, California or even Arizona.
Voters in Mexico Town now and again confronted weeks of water shortages in recent times.
Up to 80% of the Colorado River basin’s water is used for agriculture and about part of that is going in opposition to the manufacturing of alfalfa. Much more regarding is that many of the water goes to feed those thirsty plants. And within the dry south-west states of the United States part of its water is going to in opposition to the manufacturing of red meat and dairy farm animals.
This has an have an effect on on towns who’re utterly dependent at the Colorado River. With regards to Tijuana in Mexico, the Colorado River provides 90% of its water, whilst US towns corresponding to Los Angeles and Las Vegas obtain 50% and 90% in their water provides from the Colorado River and basin, respectively.
This can be a main fear as each the Colorado River and the Rio Grande are experiencing report low ranges of water. And getting extra water from Mexico isn’t a long-term resolution.
Regardless that the Biden management was once criticised via farmers for now not threatening Mexico, via withholding water, its way in large part targeted extra at the long-term demanding situations.
For the former US management the answer was once to speculate extra within the Colorado River basin, incentivising California, Arizona and Colorado to preserve 3 million acre-feet of water via 2026 in go back for US$1 billion (£741,000,000) in federal investment.
What drives this war?
However below Trump, federal investment for tackling local weather alternate is being slashed. Higher polarisation in US home politics and rising tensions between the United States and Mexico will make resolving this disaster the entire tougher.
This can be a ignored alternative. Even supposing conflicts over water are turning into extra widespread, water shortage will also be a possible driving force of cooperation.
In the meantime, the United States’s courting with Mexico is still rocky. Trump has threatened to position new 30% price lists on Mexico from August 1, after he claimed it hadn’t executed sufficient to take on drug cartels.
Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has mentioned her govt was once destroying drug laboratories each day, and that the United States will have to regulate guns travelling over its border into Mexico that have been getting used for prison functions. In the meantime, prime price lists on Mexican items are prone to have an effect on US shoppers as Mexico is lately the United States’s largest buying and selling spouse.
Cooperation, and acknowledging the function performed via local weather alternate, and unsustainable types of building in each agriculture and production are key to resolving this cross-border water disaster – however those are issues that the Trump management is not likely to recognize, or deal with.
