At the evening of January 2-3, 2026, the USA Armed Forces introduced and performed an enormous army operation referred to as “Absolute Determination” to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from the Miraflores Palace in Caracas. Within the procedure, Donald Trump introduced that the USA would briefly “govern” Venezuela pending the takeover of energy by means of a central authority sympathetic to the USA (assume so). Alternatively, Vice President Delsy Rodriguez, who has been legally in energy since Maduro’s imprisonment, is now pronouncing her goal to take over the rustic’s management. What destiny is in retailer for the rustic, between Trumpist interventionism, anti-imperialist nationalist upsurge and world protests?
Army intervention performed with out felony foundation and within the title of “United States security”; taking out and imprisoning the ruling dictator; the announcement of the longer term takeover of the rustic by means of america military and firms: all of it reminds of the operation in opposition to Iraq and Saddam Hussein in 2003.
The parallel with the Iraqi operation – formally supposed to forestall using guns of mass destruction (which remained undetected) – is restricted: this time, in the back of the excuse of combating “narco-terrorism”, Donald Trump unequivocally acknowledges the important thing function performed by means of oil sources in the primary motives of this operation. Those that need to see it as a protection of democracy will likely be at a loss: the promotion of democracy and the combat in opposition to dictatorships are on the middle of Ecu speeches, however almost absent from the speeches of the Trump workforce.
Moreover, the 2003 invasion aimed to damage the Iraqi Baath Birthday party state; Alternatively, it’s not the opponent María Corina Machado, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025, who has been invited to manipulate Venezuela, however the present Vice President Delsy Rodriguez. The location thus suggests, at this level, the monopolization of Venezuela’s sources by means of an out of doors energy, along side the interior abandonment of Maduro inside the regime, even supposing Rodríguez demanded his liberate.
Due to this fact, the important thing query may not be “who rules”, however “how to rule afterwards”.
Rodriguez’s Venezuela, between restricted sovereignty and wounded nationalism
The abduction of Nicolás Maduro does no longer save you the 1999 Charter of Venezuela from proceeding to use.
An army operation led by means of the USA eliminates one of the vital energy holders, however does no longer routinely turn into the rustic’s political, social or financial buildings. Alternatively, it introduces an enduring limitation. The brand new regime will have to govern underneath the simultaneous gaze of an exterior mother or father energy, which has demonstrated its capability for intervention, and on which its survival lately is dependent, and a countrywide society this is very conscious of indicators of autonomy or is put underneath surveillance and basically divided.
On January 4, 2026, Delsey Rodríguez, who was the Venezuelan head of state at the identical day by means of the verdict of the Ultimate Courtroom, presided over the Council of Ministers in Caracas. At the wall: portraits of Simón Bolívar, Hugo Chávez and, within the middle, Nicolás Maduro and his spouse, these days detained in the USA. Website online of the Vice Presidency of Venezuela
This rigidity places the facility of Delsey Rodriguez in a double constraint: at the one hand, steer clear of a brand new intervention by means of currying desire with the Trump management; alternatively, to fulfill the aspirations of the inhabitants to recognize the sovereignty violated by means of American interference. In a phrase, she will have to mix survival within the face of Trump and compensatory nationalist rhetoric: for instance, she condemned the “Zionist” (learn colonizing) content material of the American expedition, described as “kidnapping” and “barbarism” that violates world legislation.
If Rodríguez and his entourage go for a speech this is too muscular and offensive to Washington, it’s going to be offering Donald Trump an excuse to hold out an entire regime trade, which will require a lot better motion and funding. Venezuela subsequently now lives in a regime of “limited sovereignty,” as the brand new US nationwide safety technique introduced in December.
On this context, 3 destinies at the moment are open to the rustic.
State of affairs 1, Chavism with out Chavez or Maduro: Caribbean Thermidor underneath US supervision
First state of affairs: actual continuity in spite of a visual rupture. For the Bolivarian elites, the discharge of Maduro can have been the associated fee to pay to avoid wasting the state, repair a type of rationality and convey the rustic out of isolation.
The faces slightly trade, the uniforms no longer but. Throughout the primary six months, US sanctions may well be in part suspended, markets may just react cautiously, and establishments could be “normalized” relatively than reworked. On this state of affairs, the brand new energy talks handiest of balance, by no means of reconstruction, and administers technical laws underneath the discreet supervision of the USA, whose consideration will likely be targeted at the ownership of the oil fields.
After a yr, the democracy claimed by means of Chavismo’s combatants will likely be not on time, and the facility buildings will stay in large part intact. As all through the 9-Thermidor in 1794, excesses had been liquidated, no longer the machine.
State of affairs 2, Restricted Sovereignty: A Tropical “Snapshot”
All of it begins with an sudden inner ruin. Neither orthodox nor conventional opposition, a brand new middle of political gravity seems within the center, carried by means of actors uninterested in extremes and decided to stabilize the rustic. The more than a few oppositions (appropriate with MAGA or no longer) are converging and teaming up with the “moderate Chavistas” (pragmatic governors, second-rate squaddies, technocrats from the United Socialist Birthday party of Venezuela (PSUV) – a Chavista formation – who need to steer clear of a complete cave in) to provide the rustic a definite transitional nationwide regime that promises the state. Within the first six months, a minimal social pact is proposed, coercion is briefly withdrawn, and the financial system is restarted due to a chain of pragmatic measures.
The marvel comes from society itself: the call for for a “normal life” turns into dominant, weakening (in all probability momentarily) polarization. The rustic appears to be getting into a segment of sudden, nearly involuntary, pacification.
However after a couple of months, more than likely across the fall of 2026, inner unrest arises: sectoral moves, company protests, regional tensions. Not anything decisive for the steadiness of the regime, however sufficient to remind us that it’s nonetheless fragile. The federal government is responding with a mix of focused concessions and measured firmness, keeping off escalation whilst reasserting its authority.
Those turbulences, mockingly, support the narrative of compromise: the regime items itself as the one one able to containing the chaos with out reverting to systematic repression. As with the facility of Janos Kadar established in Hungary after 1956 (after the USSR put down the riot in Budapest), it’s neither an ideological victory nor a political defeat: it’s historic fatigue that regulations, and society accepts a compromise, for loss of anything else higher.
On this state of affairs, the USA performs a a lot more vital function: it helps the upward push to energy of a MAGA-inspired chief in Caracas, just like the Soviets who put Janos Kadar in control of Hungary.
State of affairs 3, Cuban evolution prior to Castro: American dominion
If sovereignty stays intact on paper, the negotiating capability of the Chavista energy is already very vulnerable in the beginning of 2026. When a brand new management is established, supported by means of Washington and aligned with its priorities, comes the segment of reopening underneath restrictions: conditional lifting of sanctions, go back of American majors, pressing conclusion of operational agreements. The brand new contracts stretch for many years, locked in with stabilization clauses and favorable taxation for giant corporate pursuits. The oil stays Venezuelan, however the earnings turns into extraterritorial, successful to the industrial circles of the USA.
The 3rd segment comes to price seize: applied sciences, insurance coverage, delivery and refineries are privatized, revenues are repatriated, and the state is lowered to a minimum fiscal serve as. Venezuela produces so much, captures little and now relies on flows it now not controls.
In any case, this dependence turns into normalized. The dominant narrative claims that “this is the price of stability”; oil sovereignty is depoliticized; and social divisions deepen. Theft is now not simply visual: it’s institutionalized.
Briefly, Venezuela suffered the destiny of Cuba between the adoption of the Platt Modification (1901), which formalized the suitable of the USA to interfere within the Republic of Cuba, and the Castro Revolution (1959): it was a dominion of the USA.
