There may be nonetheless a “fundamental disagreement”. This used to be the one concrete result of a gathering on the White Area between US, Danish and Greenlandic officers on January 14, as every aspect maintained its unique place on Greenland’s sovereignty. The Trump management has argued that the USA should take direct keep watch over of the island, whilst each Danish and Greenlandic officers have strongly rejected the theory.
This used to be in all probability to be anticipated. The not too long ago revealed US Nationwide Safety Technique made something very transparent: US international coverage is now outlined by means of an assertive means against all the Western Hemisphere. Washington claims the best to interfere within the inside affairs of alternative nations – even militarily, if essential – to ensure US strategic and company pursuits.
This new “Donroe Doctrine” is a renewed model of the gunboat international relations that formed US international coverage towards Latin The united states (and the Asia-Pacific area) within the early twentieth century.
Trump desires Greenland
Trump has again and again stated the USA must take direct keep watch over of Greenland for “national security” causes. The White Area’s social media now continuously posts about the USA taking keep watch over of the island, however Trump has been damn the saber for a while: “We’re going to get there, one way or another,” he stated in a speech to Congress in February 2025. His appointment of present Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as particular envoy to Greenland in December 2025 showed this plan of action.
For Trump, Greenland is strategically necessary. Even if in moderation populated, the island is doubtlessly wealthy in uncooked fabrics, together with essential uncommon earth minerals. That makes it a goal for American tech giants.
It additionally suits smartly into his concept of an imperial United States, in conjunction with the atypical proposal to make Canada the 51st US state and the hotly contested renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America”.
As a part of his nationwide safety rhetoric, Trump claimed that Chinese language and Russian ships have been “all over” Greenland. On the other hand, senior Nordic officers with get right of entry to to NATO intelligence have publicly and explicitly said that there was no information in this lately.
Geographically, Greenland is North The united states’s gateway to the Arctic. Local weather exchange has made the area an increasing number of navigable, and it’s anticipated to turn out to be a theater of intense festival between the arena’s main powers.
Danish and Ecu reaction
Ecu policymakers have begun to take Trump’s phrases severely, and rightly so: on this 2nd time period, he displays that he’s prepared – and infrequently ready – to compare phrases (even probably the most radical and excessive ones) with political motion. Even if a part of Denmark, which is a NATO best friend and a member of the Ecu Union, Greenland turns out like simple prey.
The independent Greenland govt has again and again said, each ahead of and after the January 14 assembly, that it does no longer need to be annexed by means of the USA. After extended mediation and a low-profile means, the Danish top minister has additionally taken a company stance, which is now supported by means of different Ecu companions and the United Kingdom.
The EU Fee, for its phase, has been hesitant, expressing unity with Denmark and Greenland, however is disappointingly ambiguous relating to concrete safety commitments. By contrast, the Danish govt determined to increase its army presence within the area. It introduced “Operation Arctic Endurance” in shut cooperation with allies together with France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. Finland and the Netherlands are nonetheless comparing the Danish proposal.
From an army viewpoint, this can be a in large part symbolic transfer, however politically it has huge importance, because it indicators a exceptional new low for transatlantic members of the family. Ecu troops are actually touchdown in Greenland to protect it towards the actual risk posed no longer by means of Russia or China, however by means of the USA, their decades-long safety spouse.
3 imaginable results
Given the present cases, there appear to be 3 imaginable tactics to finish the battle.
The primary is that Trump backs down, abandons his plan to “conquer Greenland” and recognize the established order. That is not going: the president’s vocal escalation has already reached the purpose of no go back, and he’s now able the place he must promote the Greenland factor to his voters as a ancient victory.
Another choice is, due to this fact, army profession. That is ruled by means of the good judgment of “chicken” sport concept. The U.S. defense force are better, a lot more combat-ready, and supported by means of an management that has already demonstrated that it could use drive intentionally and unilaterally—without or with congressional authorization as required by means of the U.S. Charter. In this day and age of fact, Trump might assume, the Europeans shall be scared and backtrack.
That is the worst case situation that would result in the top of NATO. It might additionally reason a domino impact of worsening members of the family, which might threaten EU team spirit.
It is true that Trump could also be tempted to proceed along with his erratic “might is right” means (which some analysts have colorfully referred to as the “Fuck and Find Out” technique). On the other hand, he is also restrained by means of rising issues inside of his personal celebration, comparable to the ones not too long ago expressed by means of tough Republican Senator Mitch McConnell.
A 3rd choice is to barter a compromise that advantages each events. The USA and Denmark may just revise their 1951 bilateral settlement and, in doing so, supply Washington with an expanded army presence at the island (comparable to permission to construct a base for US nuclear submarines) with a unique concession on mining rights. On the similar time, Denmark and different NATO allies would decide to expanding their army presence in Greenland and all over the Arctic.
NATO Secretary Basic Mark Rutte is alleged to be actively operating against this result. That will be a win-win answer and really welcome.
