Turkey’s peace procedure is advancing. In August 2025, 3 months after the Kurdistan Staff’ Birthday party – recurrently referred to as the PKK – introduced its formal disbandment, a Turkish parliamentary committee overseeing reforms as a part of the method met. It adopted a symbolic disarmament rite in northern Iraq, all over which Kurdish militants publicly burned guns.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has hailed the peace strikes as a brand new web page within the nation’s historical past. He might not be improper. The Kurdish insurgency has, in any case, raged for many years and introduced an ongoing safety and human rights worry. However as doubtlessly momentous as those traits are, public opinion in Turkey stays a long way from constructive in regards to the possibilities of lasting peace, in particular given a lot of screw ups through the years. A Analysis İstanbul survey from early August printed that simply 39% of respondents imagine the method will turn out a success, with 48% anticipating it to fail. The most typical explanation why for this pessimism used to be worry that the PKK itself would possibly sabotage the method.
Such perceptions topic a great deal, as with out large public agree with and a way of possession, it’s tough for a peace procedure to undergo.
As a pupil of peace and clash research who has tested post-conflict transitions in puts from Northern Eire to Bosnia-Herzegovina and Colombia, I imagine that Turkey now faces its maximum credible alternative for a sturdy peace. But the central query stays: Will each the PKK and Erdoğan’s govt maintain their dedication when the method inevitably encounters setbacks, or will historical past repeat itself with every other cave in into distrust and violence?
Why the percentages glance higher this time
The clash between the Turkish state and the PKK has been probably the most protracted and violent struggles on the earth. It has claimed over 40,000 lives — infantrymen, insurgents and civilians alike — and displaced numerous households, in particular in Turkey’s southeast the place a majority of Turkish Kurds are living. Past the humanitarian toll, the conflict has left lasting scars at the material of Turkish society, deepening distrust between Kurdish communities and the state, polarizing politics and shaping the rustic’s safety and international coverage priorities.
The primary team of the Kurdistan Staff’ Birthday party destroyed their guns in northern Iraq on July 11, 2025.
Stringer/Anadolu by the use of Getty Photographs
The PKK, which first took up hands in 1984, introduced its marketing campaign within the identify of Kurdish autonomy and cultural rights and faced a state that, on the time, denied even the popularity of Kurdish identification. Turkey’s reaction has been a mix of heavy-handed army campaigns and sporadic, ceaselessly short-lived, openings to discussion.
In his early years as top minister, Erdoğan broke with the standard secular army established order by means of taking a extra conciliatory technique to the Kurdish query. He expanded cultural rights, lifted restrictions on Kurdish-language broadcasting or even stated previous state repression. The 2013–2015 “solution process,” introduced beneath Erdoğan’s management with the declared intention of finishing the armed clash and integrating Kurds extra absolutely into Turkish political existence, used to be a significant try at peace. But it later collapsed amid deep distrust, mutual recriminations and renewed violence.
The political surroundings these days, alternatively, whilst fragile and unsure, carries parts that distinguish it from previous makes an attempt. In all probability maximum unexpected has been the endorsement of the newest procedure by means of the far-right Nationalist Motion Birthday party, or MHP, Erdoğan’s coalition spouse and lengthy one of the crucial staunchest warring parties of any concessions to Kurdish aspirations. The MHP’s backing supplies a measure of political duvet to the ruling govt that no earlier effort loved.
On the similar time, Erdoğan’s personal trajectory complicates the image. Regardless of his previous reformist means, Erdoğan’s governance has, through the years, turn out to be an increasing number of centralized and, within the eyes of critics, authoritarian. That shift ceaselessly left little room for compromise on problems with identification and rights. Some observers argue that his renewed include of negotiations these days displays a calculation that, with less assailable regulate over state establishments and the backing of the far-right MHP, he can pursue peace with out showing politically prone. Others see it much less as a transformation of conviction than as a reaction to moving cases, each home and regional, that experience made engagement with Kurdish teams a strategic necessity.
At the PKK’s aspect, the renewed include of negotiations displays each attrition and recalculation. After many years of armed battle that yielded diminishing in style make stronger, stable battlefield losses and few tangible political features, the motion confronted a narrowing horizon for armed insurgency. Turning to peace is, for plenty of inside of its management, much less a unexpected conversion than a reputation that the army trail had reached a useless finish.
Supporters attend a rally airing a televised observation by means of the jailed chief and founding father of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, in Syria’s predominantly-Kurdish northeastern town of Qamishli on July 9, 2025.
Delil Souleiman/AFP by the use of Getty Photographs)
Dangers that would derail the method
Regardless of a promising surroundings for peace, the toughest paintings isn’t over. Whilst PKK disarmament marks a watershed second, historical past and international revel in recommend that peace is ceaselessly maximum fragile at exactly the degree when a proper diplomatic procedure starts.
Maximum instantly, the reform query looms huge. The PKK’s legitimacy in moving from militancy to politics will hinge no longer simply on disarmament, however on whether or not the Turkish govt follows thru with visual reforms. The ones come with reputation of Kurdish cultural and linguistic rights, significant political participation and efficient reintegration for ex-combatants.
Colombia’s revel in with the riot team FARC is instructive. Sustainable peace required the implementation of social and political reforms, rural construction systems and complete reintegration efforts to stop former combatants from drifting again into violence. But Colombia additionally presentations the hazards of extend. When reforms lagged, frustration grew and portions of the method stalled, threatening the sturdiness of peace.
Regional dynamics may additionally briefly dissatisfied the delicate development. Turkey’s ongoing safety considerations in Syria and Iraq complicate its home peace calculus. Turkey has already pressed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, noticed as carefully related to the PKK, to fall in keeping with the peace procedure — no longer best by means of spotting the PKK’s disbandment but additionally by means of aligning themselves with Turkey’s broader regional safety insurance policies, together with in northern Syria. Some analysts have warned that escalating cross-border tensions may embolden hard-liners on both sides.
In the end, historical past presentations that concord inside of an armed motion that has embraced international relations can’t be taken with no consideration. In Northern Eire, dissident IRA teams introduced assaults even after the Excellent Friday Settlement used to be concluded in 1998, which officially ended the Troubles.
The lesson from different peace processes is sobering. Peace is never instant, hardly absolute and ceaselessly marred by means of spoilers. The decisive issue shall be whether or not the mainstream management of Turkey and the PKK stay firmly dedicated to a political trail, even if fringe actors inevitably defect or unexpected cases stand up.
Turkey’s highway forward
Whilst the ceasefire marks an abnormal opening, its survival is determined by greater than the absence of gunfire. For the PKK to stay invested in politics, I imagine 4 stipulations are extensively considered as very important.
In all probability most significantly, reforms will have to be tangible. Self belief within the peace procedure will briefly erode with out transparent motion from Turkey within the type of democratization and a reputable dedication to respecting Kurdish cultural, political and financial rights.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivers remarks following a cupboard assembly on the Presidential Advanced on July 28, 2025.
Yavuz Ozden/ dia pictures by the use of Getty Photographs
Moreover, a agreement negotiated only between the state and the PKK dangers alienating the ones maximum suffering from many years of violence. Sufferers’ associations, civil society teams and opposition events will wish to be a part of the dialog if reconciliation is to take root throughout society.
Domestically, there are a wide variety of doable spoilers that the diplomatic procedure will have to cope with. Kurdish actions in Iraq and Syria proportion ties with the PKK, and their movements can both strengthen or destabilize peace inside of Turkey. Positive engagement with those actors by means of Turkey, reasonably than disagreement, shall be crucial in combating spillover tensions that would get to the bottom of development.
In the end, transparency and oversight will topic. Each home mechanisms and world tracking may give duty, construct public agree with and deter spoilers. Simply as importantly, robust oversight can assist mitigate the profound energy imbalances that ceaselessly undermine peace processes.
In Turkey, the state obviously holds overwhelming institutional, criminal and safety benefits over Kurdish forces. With out mechanisms that stage the taking part in box, guarantees of reform is also perceived as hole.
When the Oslo Accords failed to deal with asymmetries between Israelis and Palestinians, distrust deepened and the method unraveled. In contrast, in Northern Eire, extra balanced oversight buildings, together with joint establishments and world guarantors, gave weaker events a significant stake in compliance and implementation.
Turkey now stands at a historical crossroads. If the Turkish govt and the PKK can keep the path, and if Turkish society embraces the promise of reform and reconciliation, this second may mark the long-awaited turning level towards a sturdy peace.
