President Donald Trump introduced whilst in Saudi Arabia on Might 14, 2025, that the USA would raise sanctions on Syria. The turnaround was once an enormous victory for the federal government of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa as he makes an attempt to consolidate energy just about six months on from his motion’s shocking toppling of the longtime regime of Bashar al Assad.
Nevertheless it wasn’t all all the way down to Syria lobbying by itself behalf. In pronouncing the coverage shift, Trump in large part attributed the shift to his Saudi hosts in addition to Turkey. Each countries are longtime Assad foes who temporarily championed al-Sharaa and feature been pushing the U.S. to normalize ties with Syria’s new govt.
Turkey, whose assets and land were closely suffering from instability in neighboring Syria, was once in particular instrumental in pushing Trump to simply accept the post-Assad govt, even over objections from Israel.
As professionals in world members of the family and Turkish regulation and politics, we consider the tendencies in Syria level to the oversized function a small-to-middle energy like Turkey may have in regional and world issues. This is in particular true within the Heart East, the place global powers such because the U.S. are gave the impression to have a declining and from time to time unpredictable affect.
A gap in Syria
After 13 years of devastating civil warfare, Syria faces a slew of enormous demanding situations, together with the speedy job of state development. Now not most effective is violence nonetheless readily obvious in Syria itself – as the hot killing of Alawites, allegedly through govt forces, or opponents aligned with them, confirmed – however neighboring Israel has additionally time and again attacked positions in Syria in an try to weaken the brand new govt. To Israel’s govt, a robust, militarized Syria would pose a risk, in particular in regard to the risky border on the Golan Heights.
In spite of the problems that confront Syria’s new govt, it has however demonstrated a exceptional flair for gaining world acceptance – a notable reality given al-Sharaa’s management ties to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a previously al-Qaeda related crew indexed as one of the vital U.S. overseas terrorist organizations since 2014.
Turkey presses its affect
On this context, Turkey’s hand has been particularly vital.
Since Trump took administrative center, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has pressed the American president to boost sanctions. The 2 males had struck up a robust dating all over the primary Trump management, with the U.S. president stating himself to be a “big fan” of the Turkish chief.
Turkey’s behind-the-scenes international relations may also be observed as a part of its broader effort to fill the vacuum left through Assad’s fall. Doing so now not most effective bolsters Erdogan’s place as a regional participant, but it surely additionally advances his home time table.
Turkey has moved temporarily on a large number of fronts in charting the longer term process Syria through pursuing financial and safety tasks within the nation. Initially, Turkey has upped its funding in Syria.
Additionally, because it did in Libya and Somalia, Turkey has contributed to the educational and equipping of recent Syrian safety forces.
Within the northeast Syrian province of Idlib, Turkey is investment schooling, well being care and electrical energy, and the Turkish lira is the de facto foreign money throughout northwestern Syria.
The roots of those engagements lie in Turkey’s pastime in managing its personal safety scenario.
Since 1984, Turkey has been combating Kurdish separatist teams, maximum particularly the Kurdistan Employees’ Birthday party, or PKK, which is aligned with the Kurdish YPG armed forces in northeast Syria – one of the vital teams that fought Assad’s forces all over Syria’s civil warfare.
A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG close to Qamishli’s airport in northeastern Syria on Dec. 8, 2024.
Delil Souleiman/AFP by the use of Getty Pictures
Assad’s fall ended in Russia’s retreat from Syria. In the meantime, Iranian affect, too, has waned on account of now not most effective Assad’s departure, but additionally the army downgrading of Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. And the U.S. not actively helps the Kurdish YPG armed forces in northeast Syria.
Into this void of exterior affect, Turkey temporarily seized a possibility to reshape the protection panorama.
Ankara, which nonetheless controls huge chunks of territory in Syria’s northeast from the combat towards Assad and Syrian Kurdish teams, agreed to a Syrian plan to include the YPG, the armed wing of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the brand new Syrian military.
The Turkish point of view has lengthy been that the combat towards the PKK can be successful ultimately most effective with steadiness on Syrian soil. Now, the PKK is making an attempt to succeed in peace with the Turkish govt, however whether or not the SDF in Syria will disarm and disband is some distance from positive. As such, having a robust, solid Syrian govt by which a Kurdish majority is accommodated is also in Ankara’s highest pursuits.
In the meantime, al-Sharaa’s luck in rebuilding Syria after the civil warfare would additionally lend a hand Turkey on any other entrance: the problem of Syrian refugees.
Turkey lately hosts round 3.2 million refugees from Syria – essentially the most of any nation. The sheer quantity and duration of keep of those displaced other folks have put a pressure on Turkey’s economic system and social members of the family, resulting in clashes between Turks and Syrian refugees.
There could also be a extensive consensus in Turkey that the Syrian refugee drawback in Turkey may also be solved most effective via a complete go back technique.
Even though naturalized Syrians in Turkey make up the most important constituency inside the voter base of Erdogan’s ruling AK Birthday party, the one answer lately envisaged through the Turkish president and his allies is repatriation. For this, fast and solid building of infrastructure and the housing inventory in Syria is regarded as very important.
Donald Trump seems on as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa on Might 14, 2025. The confab additionally had Turkish fingerprints in all places it.
Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace by the use of AP
Possibilities for small-to-middle powers
Turkey’s strategic alternative in Syria isn’t with out transparent dangers, alternatively. The incursions through the Israeli army illustrates the problem Turkey faces in advancing its personal pursuits in Syria. It’s notable that Trump’s announcement on sanctions was once apparently made with out the data – and towards the needs – Israeli Top Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Moreover, Turkey is taking a look to finesse a rising function within the area into strengthening its place over the long-running dispute in Cyprus. The island, which lies a few hundred miles off Syria’s coast, is split into two areas, with Greek Cypriots within the south and a breakaway Turkish Cypriot north – with most effective Turkey spotting the self-declared state within the north. Turkey is making an attempt to control maritime jurisdiction within the jap Mediterranean via an settlement with Syria, however the plan is stalled because the Eu Union helps Greece’s place in Cyprus.
The Turkish strikes in Syria are however being widely felt in different places. Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar improve the post-Assad association in Syria and spot their very own pursuits being served along Turkey’s, even supposing the contention of the Sunni global is at stake.
The lifting of sanctions through the U.S. can have long-term political affects past temporary financial affects. Syria has little direct business with the U.S., most effective exporting its agricultural merchandise and antiques. However the look of political legitimacy and popularity is a diplomatic win for Turkey, in addition to for Syria. The political opening brings with it the promise of long run funding in Syria.
Turkey’s coping with Syria showcases how small-to-middle powers can chart the waters of statecraft in their very own manner. The times of world affairs being ruled through superpowers seem to be over – as many have lengthy predicted. And in Syria, Turkey is offering a blueprint for a way small-to-middle powers can paintings that to their benefit.
