A impulsively organized summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is about for Aug. 15, 2025, in Alaska, the place the 2 leaders will speak about a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy won’t attend, barring a last-minute trade. The Dialog’s politics editor Naomi Schalit interviewed longtime diplomat Donald Heflin, now educating at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty, to get his point of view at the unconventional assembly and why it’s prone to produce, as he says, {a photograph} and a observation, however now not a peace deal.
How do wars finish?
Wars finish for 3 causes. One is that all sides get exhausted and come to a decision to make peace. The second one, which is extra commonplace: One facet will get exhausted and raises its hand and says, “Yeah, we’re ready to come to the peace table.”
After which the 3rd is – we’ve observed this occur within the Mideast – outdoor forces just like the U.S. or Europe are available in and say, “That’s enough. We’re imposing our will from the outside. You guys stop this.”
What we’ve observed within the Russia-Ukraine state of affairs is neither facet has proven an actual willingness to visit the convention desk and surrender territory.
So the combating continues. And the function that Trump and his management are taking part in at this time is that 3rd chance, an outdoor energy is available in and says, “Enough.”
Now it’s a must to have a look at Russia. Russia is perhaps a former superpower, however an influence, and it’s were given nuclear fingers and it’s were given a large military. This isn’t some small, Center Japanese nation that the USA can utterly dominate. They’re just about a peer. So are you able to truly impose your will on them and get them to return to the convention desk in seriousness in the event that they don’t need to? I roughly doubt it.
Citizens of Kramatorsk, Ukraine, step out in their automobile amid residential structures bombed by means of Russian forces on Aug. 10, 2025.
Pierre Crom/Getty Pictures
How does this upcoming Trump-Putin assembly have compatibility into the historical past of peace negotiations?
The analogy a large number of persons are the usage of is the Munich Convention in 1938, the place Nice Britain met with Hitler’s Germany. I don’t love to make comparisons to Nazism or Hitler’s Germany. The ones guys began Global Conflict II and perpetrated the Holocaust and killed 30 or 40 million folks. It’s exhausting to match anything else to that.
However in diplomatic phrases, we return to 1938. Germany mentioned, “Listen, we have all these German citizens living in this new country of Czechoslovakia. They’re not being treated right. We want them to become part of Germany.” And so they had been poised to invade.
The top minister of Nice Britain, Neville Chamberlain, went and met with Hitler in Munich and got here up with an settlement during which the German portions of Czechoslovakia would turn out to be a part of Germany. And that might be it. That might be all that Germany would ask for, and the West gave some roughly gentle safety promises.
Czechoslovakia wasn’t there. This used to be a peace imposed on them.
And certain sufficient, you already know, inside a yr or two, Germany used to be pronouncing, “No, we want all of Czechoslovakia. And, P.S., we want Poland.” And thus Global Conflict II began.
German dictator Adolf Hitler, proper, shakes palms with British Top Minister Neville Chamberlain all through their assembly at Godesberg, Germany, on Sept. 23, 1938.
New York Instances Co./Getty Pictures
Are you able to spell out the comparisons additional?
Czechoslovakia wasn’t on the desk. Ukraine’s now not on the desk.
Once more, I’m now not certain I need to examine Putin to Hitler, however he’s a strongman authoritarian president with a large army.
Safety promises got to Czechoslavakia and now not commemorated. The West gave Ukraine safety promises when that nation gave up its nuclear guns in 1994. We instructed them, “If you’re going to be brave and give up your nuclear weapons, we’ll make sure you’re never invaded.” And so they’ve been invaded two times since then, in 2014 and 2022. The West didn’t step up.
So historical past would let us know that the probabilities for a long-lasting peace popping out of this summit are beautiful low.
What sort of experience is needed in negotiating a peace deal?
Right here’s what typically occurs in maximum nations that experience a large international coverage or nationwide safety status quo, or even in some smaller nations.
The political leaders get a hold of their coverage purpose, what they need to reach.
After which they inform the profession civil servants and international provider officials and army folks, “This is what we want to get at the negotiating table. How do we do that?”
After which the mavens say, “Oh, we do this and we do that, and we’ll assign staff to work it out. We’ll work with our Russian counterparts and try to narrow the issues down, and we’ll come up with numbers and maps.”
With the entire substitute of workforce for the reason that inauguration, the U.S. now not most effective has a brand new workforce of political appointees – together with some, like Marco Rubio, who, in most cases talking, know what they’re doing relating to nationwide safety – but in addition many that don’t know what they’re doing. They’ve additionally fired the senior stage of civil servants and international provider officials, and a large number of the mid-levels are leaving, in order that experience isn’t there.
That’s an actual downside. The U.S. nationwide safety status quo is more and more being run by means of the B group – at highest.
How will this be an issue when Trump meets Putin?
You’ve gotten two leaders of 2 large nations like this, they typically don’t meet on a couple of days’ realize. It will need to be an actual disaster.
This assembly may occur two or 3 weeks from now as simply as it might this week.
And if that came about, you may have a possibility to arrange. You’d have a possibility to get a wide variety of paperwork in entrance of the American contributors. You might meet together with your Russian opposite numbers. You’d meet with Ukrainian opposite numbers, perhaps one of the crucial Western Eu nations. And when the 2 aspects sat down on the desk, it might be very skilled.
They might have very equivalent briefing papers in entrance of them. The problems can be narrowed down.
None of that’s going to occur in Alaska. It’s going to be two political leaders assembly and deciding issues, steadily pushed by means of political concerns, however with none actual thought of whether or not they are able to truly be applied or how they may well be applied.
May just a peace deal perhaps be enforced?
Once more, the location is more or less haunted by means of the West by no means imposing safety promises promised in 1994. So I’m now not certain how neatly this may well be enforced.
Traditionally, Russia and Ukraine had been all the time connected up, and that’s the issue. What’s Putin’s final analysis? Would he surrender Crimea? No. Would he surrender the a part of japanese Ukraine that de facto were taken over by means of Russia ahead of this warfare even began? Most probably now not. Would he surrender what they’ve won since then? OK, perhaps.
Then let’s put ourselves in Ukraine’s sneakers. Will they need to surrender Crimea? They are saying, “No.” Do they need to surrender any of the japanese a part of the rustic? They are saying, “No.”
I’m curious what your colleagues within the diplomatic global are pronouncing about this upcoming assembly.
Individuals who perceive the method of international relations assume that that is very amateurish and is not going to yield actual effects which are enforceable. It’s going to yield some roughly observation and a photograph of Trump and Putin shaking palms. There will probably be individuals who consider that this may increasingly remedy the issue. It received’t.
