In 1995, International Financial institution Vice President Ismail Serageldin warned that while the conflicts of the former 100 years have been over oil, “the wars of the next century will be fought over water.”
Thirty years on, that prediction is being examined in some of the international’s maximum risky areas: Kashmir.
On April 24, 2025, the federal government of India introduced that it could downgrade diplomatic ties with its neighbor Pakistan over an assault by way of militants in Kashmir that killed 26 vacationers. As a part of that cooling of family members, India mentioned it could instantly droop the Indus Waters Treaty – a decades-old settlement that allowed each international locations to proportion water use from the rivers that waft from India into Pakistan. Pakistan has promised reciprocal strikes and warned that any disruption to its water provide can be thought to be “an act of war.”
The present flareup escalated briefly, however has an extended historical past. On the Indus Basin Water Mission on the Ohio State College, we’re engaged in a multiyear undertaking investigating the transboundary water dispute between Pakistan and India.
Fazlul Haq walks during the Gargo Glacier floodplain within the Higher Indus Basin.
Fazlul Haq/Indus Basin Water Mission/Ohio State College, CC BY-SA
I’m recently in Pakistan undertaking fieldwork in Kashmir and around the Indus Basin. Geopolitical tensions within the area, which were worsened by way of the new assault in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, do pose a big danger to the water treaty. So too does any other issue this is serving to escalate the tensions: local weather alternate
An excellent method to water disputes
The Indus River has supported lifestyles for hundreds of years because the Harappan civilization, which flourished round 2600 to 1900 B.C.E. in what’s now Pakistan and northwest India.
After the partition of India in 1947, keep watch over of the Indus River machine turned into a big supply of anxiety between the 2 international locations that emerged from partition: India and Pakistan. Disputes arose virtually instantly, in particular when India quickly halted water waft to Pakistan in 1948, prompting fears over agricultural cave in. Those early confrontations resulted in years of negotiations, culminating within the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960.
Fazlul Haq/Bryan Mark/Byrd Polar and Local weather Analysis Heart/Ohio State College, CC BY
Brokered by way of the International Financial institution, the Indus Waters Treaty has lengthy been hailed as one of the a success transboundary water agreements.
It divided the Indus Basin between the 2 international locations, giving India keep watch over over the jap rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – and Pakistan keep watch over over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.
On the time, this used to be observed as a good answer. However the treaty used to be designed for an overly other international. Again then, India and Pakistan have been newly unbiased international locations operating to ascertain themselves amid a global divided by way of the Chilly Warfare.
When it used to be signed, Pakistan’s inhabitants used to be 46 million, and India’s used to be 436 million. Nowadays, the ones numbers have surged to over 240 million and 1.4 billion, respectively.
Nowadays, greater than 300 million other people depend at the Indus River Basin for his or her survival.
This has put larger force at the treasured supply of water that sits between the 2 nuclear competitors. The results of worldwide warming, and the ongoing combating over the disputed area of Kashmir, has handiest added to these tensions.
Have an effect on of melting glaciers
Lots of the issues of nowadays are right down to what wasn’t integrated within the treaty, reasonably than what used to be.
On the time of signing, there used to be a loss of complete research on glacier mass steadiness. The idea used to be that the Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus River machine, have been slightly strong.
This loss of detailed measurements intended that long term adjustments because of local weather variability and glacial soften weren’t factored into the treaty’s design, nor have been components reminiscent of groundwater depletion, water air pollution from insecticides, fertilizer use and business waste. In a similar way, the opportunity of large-scale hydraulic building of the area via dams, reservoirs, canals and hydroelectricity have been in large part overlooked within the treaty.
Reflecting fresh assumptions in regards to the balance of glaciers, the negotiators assumed that hydrological patterns would stay chronic with the historical flows.
As a substitute, the glaciers feeding the Indus Basin started to soften. In truth, they’re now melting at report charges.
Development website online of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam alongside the Indus River.
Fazlul Haq/Indus Basin Water Mission/Ohio State College
The International Meteorological Group reported that 2023 used to be globally the driest yr in over 3 many years, with below-normal river flows disrupting agriculture and ecosystems. International glaciers additionally noticed their biggest mass loss in 50 years, freeing over 600 gigatons of water into rivers and oceans.
The Himalayan glaciers, which offer 60-70% of the Indus River’s summer season waft, are shrinking hastily. A 2019 find out about estimates they’re shedding 8 billion lots of ice every year.
And a find out about by way of the World Heart for Built-in Mountain Building discovered that Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers melted 65% sooner in 2011–2020 in comparison with the former decade.
The speed of glacier soften poses a vital problem to the treaty’s long-term effectiveness to verify crucial water for the entire individuals who depend at the Indus River Basin. Whilst it’s going to quickly build up river waft, it threatens the long-term availability of water.
Certainly, if this pattern continues, water shortages will accentuate, in particular for Pakistan, which relies closely at the Indus all through dry seasons.
Any other failing of the Indus Waters Treaty is that it handiest addresses floor water distribution and does now not come with provisions for managing groundwater extraction, which has turn into a major problem in each India and Pakistan.
Within the Punjab area – regularly known as the breadbasket of each international locations – heavy reliance on groundwater is resulting in overexploitation and depletion.
Groundwater now contributes a big portion – about 48% – of water withdrawals within the Indus Basin, in particular all through dry seasons. But there’s no transboundary framework to supervise the shared control of this useful resource as reported by way of the International Financial institution.
A disputed area
It wasn’t simply local weather alternate and groundwater that have been overlooked by way of the drafters of the Indus Waters Treaty. Indian and Pakistan negotiators additionally ignored the problem and standing of Kashmir.
Kashmir has been on the center of India-Pakistan tensions since Partition in 1947. On the time of independence, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir used to be given the strategy to accede to both India or Pakistan. Although the area had a Muslim majority, the Hindu ruler selected to accede to India, triggering the primary India-Pakistan conflict.
This resulted in a U.N.-mediated ceasefire in 1949 and the introduction of the Line of Keep watch over, successfully dividing the territory between Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Since then, Kashmir has remained a disputed territory, claimed in complete by way of each international locations and serving because the flashpoint for 2 further wars in 1965 and 1999, and a lot of skirmishes.
A ruined village in Jammu and Kashmir, India, all through the conflict between India and Pakistan in 1965.
Hulton-Deutsch Assortment/Corbis by means of Getty Photographs
In spite of being the main supply of water for the basin, Kashmiris have had no function in negotiations or decision-making beneath the treaty.
The area’s agricultural and hydropower possible has been restricted because of restrictions on using its water assets, with handiest 19.8% of hydropower possible applied. Because of this Kashmiris on either side — in spite of dwelling in a water-rich area — were not able to totally have the benefit of the assets flowing via their land, as water infrastructure has basically served downstream customers and broader nationwide pursuits reasonably than native building.
Some students argue that the treaty deliberately facilitated hydraulic building in Jammu and Kashmir, however now not essentially in ways in which served native pursuits.
India’s hydropower initiatives in Kashmir — such because the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams — were a big level of competition. Pakistan has again and again raised issues that those initiatives may adjust water flows, in particular all through a very powerful agricultural seasons.
Alternatively, the Indus Waters Treaty does now not supply particular mechanisms for resolving such regional disputes, leaving Kashmir’s hydrological and political issues unaddressed.
Tensions over hydropower initiatives in Kashmir have been bringing India and Pakistan towards diplomatic impasse lengthy ahead of the new assault.
The Kishanganga and Ratle dam disputes, now beneath arbitration in The Hague, uncovered the treaty’s rising incapacity to control transboundary water conflicts.
Then in September 2024, India officially known as for a assessment of the Indus Waters Treaty, mentioning demographic shifts, power wishes and safety issues over Kashmir.
Indian Border Safety Drive infantrymen patrol on a ship alongside the Pargwal space of the India-Pakistan world border.
Nitin Kanotra/Hindustan Occasions by means of Getty Photographs
The treaty now exists in a state of limbo. Whilst it technically stays in pressure, India’s formal realize for assessment has offered uncertainty, halting key cooperative mechanisms and casting doubt at the treaty’s long-term sturdiness.
An equitable and sustainable treaty?
Shifting ahead, I argue, any reform or renegotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty will, whether it is to have lasting luck, wish to recognize the hydrological importance of Kashmir whilst enticing voices from around the area.
Except Kashmir from long term discussions – and neither India nor Pakistan has officially proposed together with Kashmiri stakeholders – would handiest give a boost to a long-standing trend of marginalization, the place choices about its assets are made with out bearing in mind the desires of its other people.
As debates on “climate-proofing” the treaty proceed, making sure Kashmiri views are integrated will likely be important for development a extra equitable and sustainable transboundary water framework.
Nicholas Breyfogle, Madhumita Dutta, Alexander Thompson, and Bryan G. Mark on the Indus Basin Water Mission on the Ohio State College contributed to this text.
