The South China Sea has lengthy been a effervescent geopolitical scorching spot. Not too long ago, a chain of strikes through the more than a few countries claiming a stake within the waters has stirred up but extra hassle.
Malaysia has of overdue reaffirmed its dedication to grease and gasoline exploration in waters claimed through China whilst quietly build up its navy at the islands off Borneo.
In the meantime, Chinese language coast guard vessels have deployed water cannons towards Filipino fishing boats. And the unintentional grounding of a Chinese language boat in shallow waters across the Philippines’ Thitu Island on June 8, 2025, was once sufficient to place Filipino forces on alert.
Vietnam, too, has been lively within the disputed waters. A Beijing-based assume tank on June 7 flagged that Vietnamese engineers have been busy reclaiming land and putting in military-related ports and airstrips across the Spratly Islands.
What the 3 Southeast Asian countries of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia have in not unusual is they, in conjunction with others within the area, are looking to navigate a extra assertive China at a time when the U.S. coverage intentions beneath the second one Trump Management are fluid and tough to learn. And in lieu of a coordinated reaction from the regional frame Affiliation of Southeast Asian International locations, or ASEAN, every member country has been busy charting its path in those uneven waters.
US-China family members all at sea
Why is China looking to assert keep watch over within the South China Sea? In a 2023 speech, President Xi Jinping famous that “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression of China.”
This worry has been lengthy held in Beijing and was once bolstered through a U.S. Indo-Pacific coverage introduced in 2011 of rebalancing navy forces clear of Europe and towards Asia to confront China.
In reaction, China has lately launched into an formidable coverage of making an attempt to outmuscle U.S. naval energy within the South China Sea.
China is now the sector’s main builder of naval vessels and is estimated to have 440 battleships through 2030, when compared with the US’ 300.
And it comes at a time when U.S. naval energy is unfold world wide. China’s, in the meantime, is targeted across the South China Sea the place, since 2013, Chinese language vessels have pumped sand onto reefs, turning them into islands after which weaponizing them.
Satellite tv for pc imagery displays the Fiery Pass Reef within the South China Sea, a part of the Spratly Islands team, being constructed through Chinese language dredges.
Maxar by means of Getty Pictures
Then there’s the process of China’s maritime defense force of roughly 300 nominally fishing boats supplied with water cannons and bolstered hulls for ramming. This so-called grey zone fleet is increasingly more lively in confronting Southeast Asia countries at sea.
The U.S. reaction to China’s militarization within the sea has been thru so-called “freedom of navigation” workouts that continuously deploy service teams in a display of pressure. However those episodic presentations are extra performative than efficient, doing little to discourage China’s claims.
The U.S. has additionally bolstered navy alliances with Australia, India, Japan and the Philippines, and has higher coast guard cooperation with the Philippines and Japan.
A fleet from the U.S. Military patrolling the Pacific Ocean.
Sean M. Castellano US Military by means of Getty Pictures
The ocean is a treasured useful resource
But the combat over keep watch over of the South China Seas is extra than simply geopolitical posturing between the 2 superpowers.
For adjacent international locations, the ocean is a treasured organic useful resource with wealthy fishing grounds that supply a staple of fish protein for with regards to 2 billion folks. There are estimates of 190 trillion cubic toes of herbal gasoline and 11 billion barrels of oil.
The U.N. Conference at the Regulation of the Sea, or UNCLOS, promises a country an unique financial zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles from round its sea coast.
China is a signatory of the UNCLOS. But it perspectives possession of the South China Sea during the lens of its nine-dash line, a connection with the boundary line that Beijing has invoked since 1948. Whilst the declare has no prison or ancient foundation, the delineation makes main incursions into waters round Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia and, to a lesser extent, Brunei and Indonesia as neatly.
Regardless of China’s expansive declare to the South China Sea being brushed aside in 2016 through the world Everlasting Court docket of Arbitration, Beijing continues to say its declare.
Hedging positions
As I discover in my fresh e-book “Hedging and Conflict in the South China Sea,” a part of the issue Southeast Asian countries face is that they’ve did not forge a unified place.
ASEAN, the regional bloc representing 10 countries in Southeast Asia, has lengthy been ruled through the primary that main choices want unanimous settlement. China is a significant buying and selling spouse to ASEAN countries, so any regional nation aligning too with regards to the U.S. comes with the true possibility of financial penalties. And two ASEAN participants, Cambodia and Laos, are particularly with regards to China, making it tough to generate a unified ASEAN coverage that confronts China’s maritime declare.
As an alternative, ASEAN has promoted a regional code of habits that successfully legitimizes China’s maritime claims, fails to say the 2016 ruling and ignores the problem of conflicting claims.
Additional complicating a united entrance towards China is the competing claims amongst ASEAN countries themselves to disputed islands within the South China Sea.
In lieu of a coordinated reaction, Southeast Asian countries have as an alternative grew to become to hedging — this is, keeping up excellent relationships with each China and the U.S. with out absolutely committing to 1 or different.
A balancing act for Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines
Malaysia’s means sees its executive partition off the South China Sea dispute from its general bilateral ties with China whilst proceeding to advertise an ASEAN code of habits.
Till lately, Malaysia’s oil and gasoline actions had been neatly inside of Malaysia’s EEZ and no longer a ways sufficient out to fall into China’s nine-dash declare.
However as those close-to-shore fields transform exhausted, next exploration will wish to lengthen outward and into China’s nine-dash declare, hanging Malaysia’s dealings with China beneath drive.
China’s nine-dash line claims an important quantity of Vietnam’s EEZ, and the contested maritime house is a supply of friction between the 2 international locations; China’s maritime defense force ceaselessly harasses Vietnamese fishermen and disrupts drilling operations in Vietnam’s EEZ .
However Vietnam has to tread sparsely. China performs an important function within the Vietnamese financial system as a significant vacation spot of exports and the most important supplier of overseas funding. China additionally has the power to block the Mekong River upstream of Vietnam — one thing that might disrupt agricultural manufacturing.
Consequently, Vietnam’s hedging comes to a cautious calibration to steer clear of angering China. Alternatively, a part of Vietnam’s heavy hedging comes to the promotion of the South China Sea dispute as a core factor for home public opinion, which limits the Vietnamese executive’s skill to provide concessions to China.
A Philippine coast guard send and fishing boats are noticed in El Nido, Palawan, Philippines, on Would possibly 26, 2025.
Daniel Ceng/Anadolu by means of Getty ImagesDaniel Ceng/Anadolu by means of Getty Pictures
China’s nine-dash declare additionally features a broad swath of the Philippines’ EEZ.
The Philippines has zigzagged in its dealings with China. The presidencies of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001–2010) and Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) pursued a pro-China tack that downplayed Filipino claims within the South China Sea. Presidents Benigno Aquino (2010-2016) and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (2022-present), by contrast, have given U.S. forces larger get right of entry to to its maritime bases and mobilized nationwide and world opinion in desire of its claims.
Since coming to energy, Marcos has additionally pursued even nearer naval ties with the U.S.. However this has come at a value: China now perspectives the Philippines as a U.S. best friend. As such, Beijing sees little to be received through pulling again from its assertive process in and round its waters.
The long run
Within the shadow of 2 main powers fighting for energy within the South China Sea, Southeast Asian countries are making the most productive in their place alongside a geopolitical fracture line through advancing their claims and pursuits whilst no longer overly antagonizing a extra assertive China or shedding the reinforce of the U.S.
This may increasingly paintings to tamp down tensions within the South China Sea. However this is a fluid means no longer with out possibility, and it would but end up to be some other supply of instability in a geopolitically contested and threatening area.
