Saudi Arabia is two,000 miles from Ukraine and much more politically far away, so in the beginning look it could appear adore it has not anything to do with the continuing struggle there. However the Gulf state has emerged as a key middleman in essentially the most critical ceasefire negotiations since Russia invaded its neighbor 3 years in the past.
Whilst it’s U.S. officers who’re for sure main the efforts for an settlement, it’s the Saudi capital of Riyadh that has been staging the an important talks.
In a flurry of diplomatic task on March 10, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the rustic’s most sensible political authority, hosted separate conferences with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a U.S. delegation led through Secretary of State Marco Rubio and nationwide safety adviser Mike Waltz.
Day after today, senior Saudi officers facilitated face-to-face conferences between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations.
The ensuing settlement, which is now being mulled in Moscow, is the entire extra notable for the reason that it adopted a diplomatic breakdown simply weeks ahead of on the Oval Workplace between Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
Whether or not the proposed intervening time 30-day ceasefire materializes continues to be unsure. On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned he agreed with the proposal in idea, however he added that numerous the main points had to be taken care of out.
Will have to a deal be reached, there may be each explanation why to imagine it’ll be inked in Saudi Arabia, which has hosted now not best the newest U.S.-Ukrainian talks however previous rounds of high-level Russian-U.S. conferences.
However why is a Gulf country enjoying mediator in a war in Jap Europe? As knowledgeable on Saudi politics, I imagine the solution to that lies within the kingdom’s diplomatic ambitions and its need to give a extra sure symbol to the arena. And within the background is the purpose of higher positioning the country within the match of diplomatic maneuvers in its personal area, significantly with regard to any talks between U.S. and Iran.
The diplomatic convertion of MBS
Saudi Arabia’s rising diplomatic position has been a function of the dominion’s overseas coverage since 2022.
Crown Prince Mohammed, who that 12 months succeeded his father as high minister, perspectives Saudi Arabia because the convening energy within the Arab and Islamic international.
Accordingly, officers within the kingdom were directed to steer regional international relations over plenty of urgent problems, together with the conflicts in Gaza and Sudan.
On the identical time, Saudis have began the method of reconciliation with Iran, which has lengthy been perceived as the executive regional rival to Saudi affect.
This flip to international relations marks a shift clear of the confrontational insurance policies followed through the crown prince all over his upward thrust to energy in Saudi Arabia between 2015 and 2018. Insurance policies reminiscent of Saudi Arabia’s army intervention in Yemen, its blockade of Qatar, the detention of Lebanon’s High Minister Saad Hariri and the conversion of the Ritz-Carlton resort in Riyadh right into a makeshift jail all fed a picture of the younger prince as an impulsive decision-maker. Then in 2018 got here the homicide of journalist Jamal Khashoggi within the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.
This way introduced little in the best way of steadiness. Somewhat, it left the rustic ensnared in an unwinnable struggle in Yemen, a fruitless row with Qatar, and diplomatic isolation through Western officers.
A chum to Ukraine and Russia
Regarding the struggle in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia’s middleman position is helped through a belief of the dominion as a impartial country at the war.
Saudi officers, in commonplace with their opposite numbers within the different Gulf states, have lengthy sought to keep away from taking facets within the rising technology of significant energy festival and strategic competition. As such, the dominion has maintained operating family members with each Russia and pro-Western Ukraine because the outbreak of struggle in Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meet in Riyadh on Dec. 6, 2023.
Alexey Nikolsky/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
In 2022, for instance, Saudi Arabia and Russia – each leaders of OPEC+ – coordinated oil manufacturing cuts to cushion Moscow from the results of world sanctions the West imposed after it invaded Ukraine. But simply months later, Saudi Arabia invited Zelenskyy to deal with an Arab League summit within the Saudi town of Jeddah.
It was once a prelude to a 2023 global summit, additionally in Jeddah, which introduced in combination representatives from 40 international locations to speak about the continuing struggle.
In spite of failing to provide a leap forward, the assembly illustrated the convening achieve of the crown prince and his aim to behave as a diplomatic go-between within the Ukraine-Russia struggle.
Saudi Arabia and neighboring United Arab Emirates later facilitated occasional prisoner exchanges between the 2 international locations – uncommon diplomatic successes in 3 years of war.
Staging flooring for international relations
Direct engagement in high-stakes global international relations over the biggest struggle in Europe since 1945 is for sure a step up in Saudi ambitions. However the nation’s efforts aren’t purely altruistic. Riyadh believes there’s mileage to be won in such diplomatic endeavors.
The arrival of a Trump presidency has have compatibility Saudi wants. Trump has made his need to be noticed as a dealmaker and peacemaker transparent, however he wishes a impartial venue wherein the arduous paintings of international relations can flourish.
Simply weeks into the brand new U.S. management, the Saudi capital hosted the primary assembly between a U.S. secretary of state and Russian overseas minister since Russia invaded in 2022.
It yielded an settlement to “re-establish the bilateral relationship” and determine a session mechanism to “address irritants” in ties.
The 2 rounds of discussion in Riyadh – first with Russia, then Ukraine – have situated the Saudi management firmly within the diplomatic procedure. It has additionally long gone some method to rehabilitate Mohammed bin Salman’s symbol.
The sight of the crown prince warmly greeting Zelenskyy contrasted sharply with the pictures from a fractious White Space assembly that went world wide, presenting the crown prince as a statesmanlike determine.
Turning to Tehran
Such sure optics would have appeared unattainable as not too long ago as 2019, when the crown prince was once kept away from after which presidential candidate Joe Biden categorised the rustic a “pariah” state.
Converting this detrimental world belief of Saudi Arabia is an important if the dominion is to draw the tens of hundreds of thousands of tourists which might be pivotal to the luck of the “giga-projects” – sports activities, tradition and tourism occasions that the Saudis hope will pressure its economic system and make allowance the dominion to be much less economically depending on fossil gasoline exports.
While easing tensions with Iran and supporting Yemen’s fragile truce are about derisking the dominion’s vulnerability to regional volatility, facilitating international relations over Ukraine is a slightly cost-free method to improve the converting narratives about Saudi Arabia.
Finally, any breakdown within the Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations is not going to be blamed at the Saudis.
Certainly, Saudi officers might view their engagement with U.S. officers over Ukraine because the prelude to additional diplomatic cooperation. And this can be very true if Crown Prince Mohammed is in a position to determine himself as an indispensable spouse within the eyes of Trump.
Saudi officers have been excluded from the remaining main talks between Iran and the U.S., which additionally concerned a number of different main international powers and ended in the 2016 Iran nuclear deal. Trump withdrew from the deal in a while after assuming place of job for the primary time in 2017, and U.S.-Iranian family members were moribund since then.
The U.S. management has already mooted the theory of a resumption of negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear functions.
Hanging Saudi Arabia in the midst of any makes an attempt to protected a brand new nuclear settlement that may change or supersede that previous deal can be a high-risk transfer, given the depth of feeling on each the U.S. and Iranian facets and the uneasy coexistence between Tehran and Riyadh.
However doing so would give the dominion what it maximum wants: a seat on the desk.
