Possibly nobody out of doors of Venezuela or Cuba must care extra concerning the U.S. seize of nominal President Nicolás Maduro than the Islamic Republic of Iran’s splendid chief, Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei and his regime are in hassle, and it’s no longer transparent how they’d continue to exist must the Trump management make a decision to reinforce the tens of millions who desire a new authorities device with out Khamenei and his ilk.
Iran has no state allies that might be keen to interfere militarily on its behalf. Additional, its once-powerful community of spouse and proxy militias – Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and different contributors of the Axis of Resistance – has been rendered incapable or reluctant to become involved. And Iran’s financial system is in shambles in the course of an ongoing water disaster with out a reduction in sight.
Additional, the Iranian other people have once more taken to the streets to air their grievances towards harsh financial prerequisites in addition to authorities corruption, mismanagement and hypocrisy, echoing an identical prerequisites to Venezuela lately.
Finally, President Donald Trump has returned his consideration to Iran. On Jan. 2, Trump warned Khamenei that if his forces violently suppress protesters, Iran could be “hit very hard” through the U.S.
Trump’s caution and display of cohesion will most likely embolden protesters, which is able to virtually no doubt reason Iran’s inner safety to crack down tougher, as has took place previously. Such U.S. intervention may just result in the overthrowing of the ayatollah, meant or no longer. Moreover, Maduro’s destiny demonstrates that the Trump management is keen to make use of army drive for that objective if deemed vital.
As an analyst of Center East affairs that specialize in Iran, I consider that those prerequisites position Khamenei’s regime below larger risk as of late than in all probability another time in its 46-year historical past.
Protesters and safety forces conflict in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar in a video launched on Jan. 6, 2026.
Rising threats, inner and exterior
If Khamenei hopes to continue to exist politically or mortally, I consider he has 3 choices.
First, he may just capitulate to U.S. calls for to halt Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. 2nd, Iran may just dash towards a nuclear bomb. Finally, he may just flee.
In hopes of restoring deterrence, Khamenei may just additionally proceed rebuilding his nation’s army features, which have been considerably degraded all the way through the June 2025 12-day warfare during which Israel and the U.S. aimed to wreck Iran’s nuclear capacity.
Israel is raring to stifle Iran’s reconstitution plans, protests are spreading and rising extra intense, and Trump – thru adversarial rhetoric and offensive army motion – has put Khamenei on realize.
Khameini’s issues aren’t his by myself. The modern theocratic device of presidency that he leads is at risk of falling. And his army and inner safety equipment won’t have the time or talent to deal with its rising and interrelated inner and exterior threats concurrently.
There are two elementary components analysts like me believe when assessing enemy threats: offensive capacity to inflict injury and adversarial intentions to make use of those features to hurt enemies.
Figuring out offensive capacity comes to comparing the standard of a rustic or group’s whole arsenal – air, flooring, maritime, cyber and house features – and the way skilled, disciplined, built-in and deadly their forces could be. Figuring out intentions comes to comparing if, when and below what prerequisites offensive features shall be used to succeed in their objectives.
If states hope to continue to exist after they come below such force, their protection technique must account for variations between their very own army capacity and the enemy’s, particularly if enemies intend to assault. Or states wish to persuade enemies to be much less adversarial, if conceivable.
Maduro’s mistake was once his incapability to shield towards a a ways awesome U.S. army capacity whilst believing that U.S. leaders would no longer take away him from place of business. Maduro gambled and misplaced.
Dangerous possible choices
Iran’s splendid chief faces a an identical conundrum: First, there’s no foreseeable trail that permits Tehran to supply or gain the army features vital to discourage Israel or defeat the US, until Iran develops a nuclear weapon.
And many years of mutual hostility, the reminiscence of Iran’s once-clandestine nuclear weaponization program and up to date Iranian lawmaker calls to broaden nuclear bombs minimizes the possibility that U.S. leaders view Khamenei’s intentions as anything else however adversarial.
However because the transparent weaker birthday celebration, it’s in Tehran’s pastime to modify Trump’s thoughts about Tehran’s adversarial intent. The way in which to try this could be through leaving behind nuclear enrichment.
In the case of risk research, the regime’s oft-repeated chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” in all probability have despatched an simply misinterpreted message: that Iran’s adversarial leaders intend to wreck the U.S. and Israel. However they just lack the aptitude, for now.
President Theodore Roosevelt famously mentioned “speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.” Nowadays, he may say that Khamenei is unwise for talking with such vitriol taking into account the dimensions of Iran’s stick. The US and Israel possess army features a ways awesome to Iran’s – as demonstrated through the 12-day warfare – however they didn’t then proportion the similar intent. Regardless that each Israel and the U.S. operations shared the target of neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capacity, Israel’s goals have been extra large and integrated focused on senior Iranian leaders and destabilizing the regime.
To Khamenei’s short-term non-public and institutional fortune, Trump instantly referred to as for a ceasefire following U.S. B-2 moves on Iranian nuclear amenities, delineating the US’ narrower goals that on the time didn’t come with regime exchange in Iran.
However that was once ahead of U.S. forces got rid of Maduro from Caracas and ahead of the outbreak of protests in Iran, either one of which coincide with Israel’s signaling arrangements for Spherical 2 towards Iran.
Israel is telegraphing its ambitions for some other assault on Iran; fighter jets like this taxiing F-16I would most likely be a part of Israel’s subsequent marketing campaign.
Israel Protection Forces (IDF) / Handout/Anadolu by way of Getty Photographs)
Iran with out Khamenei?
Right through Trump’s Dec. 29 press convention at Mar-a-Lago with Israeli High Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he warned that the U.S. may just “knock the hell” out of Iran if the rustic reconstitutes its nuclear amenities.
That is become independent from the ominuous caution that the U.S. may just interfere on behalf of Iranian protesters; it could virtually no doubt vary in scale.
Nonetheless, a possible U.S. intervention may just embolden protesters and extra undermine and destabilize the Islamic Republic regime. Khamenei has predictably scoffed at and disregarded Trump’s caution.
I consider it is a severe mistake.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Jan. 3, 2025, that Khameini must no longer “play games” as Maduro did. Khamenei, Rubio mentioned, must take Trump’s warnings critically. I agree.
If Iran refrains from violent crackdowns on protesters, there’s a probability that anti-government protestors overthrow the federal government. However the splendid chief’s probabilities of surviving a well-liked rebellion are more than likely more than surviving an unbridled U.S. or Israeli army intent on ushering in a brand new – post-Islamic Republic – Iran.
Another way, Khamenei has to deal with awesome U.S. and Israeli army capacity, temporarily. However Iran is broke, and although sanctions weren’t ceaselessly strangling Iran economically, the rustic may just more than likely by no means acquire its option to army parity with the U.S. or Israel.
Then again, Iran may just resolve that it will have to transfer temporarily to broaden a nuclear weapon to mitigate U.S. and Israeli army features and deter long run aggression. Alternatively, this can be very not likely Iran may just do that with out U.S. and Israeli intelligence finding the venture, which might instantly cause an amazing army marketing campaign that might most likely expedite regime exchange in Iran.
And prefer Maduro, the splendid chief is completely by myself. None of Maduro’s closest companions – China, Russia, Cuba or even Iran – have been keen to struggle in his protection, regardless of weeks of forewarning and U.S. army buildup close to Venezuela.
Below those instances, it can be not possible for Khamenei to deal with overwhelming U.S. and Israeli army features. He may just, alternatively, scale back the risk through doing what’s vital to make sure the US’ goals for Iran stay slim and centered at the nuclear program, which might also stay Israel at bay.
Alternatively, Khamenei must show remarkable restraint from cracking down violently on protesters and a willingness to surrender nuclear enrichment. Because of ancient animosity and mistrust towards the U.S., each are not likely, expanding, I consider, the chance of a drawing close Iran with out Khamenei.
