Those that upward thrust to energy via a coup steadily fall by means of the similar approach.
That is among the takeaways from occasions in Madagascar, the place on Oct. 14, 2025, the army seized energy after weeks of protests in large part pushed by means of Gen Z. Sarcastically, it used to be the similar elite army unit that helped convey Andry Rajoelina, former mayor of the capital Antananarivo, to energy in a March 2009 coup that now supported anti-government protesters and in the long run compelled the president to escape.
I lead a analysis workforce that compiles the Colpus Dataset of coup varieties and traits and feature written at the historical past of coups d’état from 1946 via 2025.
Our information means that at the same time as coups have declined globally general, coup chance stays relatively prime in Africa. Since 2020, the continent has now observed 10 a hit coups throughout 8 international locations.
However the army takeover in Madagascar marks most effective the second one coup in that duration to happen outdoor of the Sahel area, stretching from the Atlantic to the Horn of Africa – a sign that Africa’s coup drawback is turning into a continental one.
However why perform a little coups be successful and others fail? And why do Madagascar and quite a lot of states in Africa have hassle escaping so-called coup traps?
Our information supplies some solutions. However first it’s value exploring what we imply after we use the time period coup.
What’s a coup?
A coup d’état is a seizure of government energy involving a number of concrete, observable and unlawful movements by means of safety body of workers or civilian officers.
Right here, Madagascar’s army takeover seems to qualify. In spite of claims by means of the rustic’s new army chief, Col. Michael Randrianirina, that he had an order from the Prime Constitutional Court docket legitimizing his seizure of energy, this looked to be contradicted by means of statements an afternoon previous that Randrianirina’s army council had suspended the prime court docket’s powers.
That’s to not say that each and every political match that smells like a coup is, if truth be told, a coup.
Many coup plots by no means come to fruition. A bona fide plot could also be preempted and the plotters arrested, or plotters might abandon their plan earlier than taking any concrete motion. Additionally, on occasion a pacesetter falsely alleges a coup plot to purge participants of the federal government suspected of disloyalty.
A plot with out an try to oust the chief isn’t, in our e-book, a coup.
Conversely, makes an attempt to focus on a pacesetter with no plan to clutch energy don’t seem to be coups. This contains chief assassination makes an attempt by means of political warring parties or lone wolves or mutinies by means of disgruntled squaddies who may even march at the presidential palace to call for upper pay, promotions or different coverage concessions.
Nor do maximum civilian-led mass uprisings entail coups, although they’re a hit in toppling the federal government. Take Nepal, the place in September a Gen Z-led protest became violent and ousted the federal government. However there used to be no coup insofar as the army remained quartered fairly than actively becoming a member of the protests or issuing a danger to compel the high minister to renounce.
On the other hand, some revolutions and coups do co-occur, leading to a “coupvolution” or “endgame coup.”
Figuring out whether or not a coup accompanies anti-government protests is determined by how elites and the army behave, now not on how violent protesters could also be.
In Madagascar, most commonly non violent civilian protests changed into a coup strive as soon as troops actively joined the demonstrations. That strive succeeded when Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT drive, claimed the intervening time presidency and insisted an army council would rule in the meanwhile.
Why do coups be successful?
There were 601 coup makes an attempt since 1946, in line with our database, with 299 being a hit – or about 50%. In Africa all over that duration, 111 out of 225 coup makes an attempt have been a hit.
Coups are available in a number of bureaucracy, with other reasons and results, and now not all are similarly prone to be successful. The occasions in Madagascar, on the other hand, tick most of the containers related to figuring out coup luck.
Coups rely on coordinating numerous other folks, whilst concurrently fighting the chief from learning concerning the plot. Mass protests of the type that rocked Madagascar in fresh weeks supply quilt – in addition to purpose and alternative – for coup plotters.
Counterintuitively, army drive isn’t decisive. In a normal coup strive, a lot of the army stays impartial, biding its time to peer whether or not the chief or coupists will succeed. In consequence, the perceived momentum of occasions influences how the army rank and record react: If they believe the coupmakers will be successful, they in most cases sign up for; if they believe the coup will fail, they typically oppose it.
A coup’s momentum is determined by a number of elements, together with the identification, location and process of coup leaders, in addition to home and global reactions to the coup.
Coups which might be introduced by means of authorities insiders and senior army officials within the capital and are nonviolent and lead to pro-coup mass mobilization are the in all probability to be successful. In contrast, coups which might be introduced by means of authorities outsiders and junior officials outdoor the capital and are bloody and generate fierce anti-coup mass mobilization are the in all probability to fail.
Coup violence is inversely correlated with luck. When no drive is threatened – generally for the reason that safety forces stay united below a senior command – coups be successful 85% of the time.
In contrast, not up to 40% of coups that escalate into civil-war ranges of violence – this is, leading to over 1,000 fatalities – be successful.
In Madagascar, we noticed the involvement of presidency elites and senior officials within the capital, mass pro-coup mobilization, low ranges of coup violence and a historical past of prior a hit coups – all of which make coup luck most likely.
Coup supporters cheer law enforcement officials in Gabon in August 2023.
AP Photograph/Betiness Mackosso
Madagascar isn’t on my own
Since 2020, army actors have additionally taken energy in coups in Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan.
So why are such a lot of African international locations susceptible to falling right into a coup lure?
Students have requested this query for many years. Construction economist Paul Collier means that Africa is probably the most coup-prone area as a result of it’s the poorest area of the sector, and it’s poverty and coffee enlargement – and related political violence – that force coups.
Others have pointed to prime ranges of ethnic variety, and a historical past of ethnic exclusion and ethnic militaries, as long-standing drivers of coups at the continent.
However since 2020, quite a few different elements additionally seem to be riding up structural coup chance at the continent. Many African international locations have observed declining accept as true with in public establishments and leaders and a upward thrust of terrorist violence, that have generated mass reputation for fresh coups at the continent.
Anti-coup norms have additionally weakened lately. World power to revive civilian rule used to be relatively robust within the Nineteen Nineties and 2000s, contributing to the decline of African army coups. However new post-coup African governments seem extra resilient to sanctions, are cooperating extra with each and every different and are in a position to attract at the reinforce of authoritarian “patrons,” particularly Russia and China.
Consequently, African post-coup governments are staying in energy longer, which in flip emboldens coup plotters in different places who see a extra permissive setting.
So although there are limits to Africa’s “coup contagion,” Madagascar most likely received’t be the closing domino to fall, given structural prerequisites at the continent.
