After the biggest buildup of U.S. warships and plane within the Heart East in many years, American and Israeli army forces introduced a large attack on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.
President Donald Trump has referred to as the assaults “major combat operations” and has prompt regime alternate in Tehran.
To raised perceive what this implies for the U.S. and Iran, Alfonso Serrano, a U.S. politics editor at The Dialog, interviewed Donald Heflin, a veteran diplomat who now teaches at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty.
Popular assaults had been reported throughout Iran, following weeks of U.S. army buildup within the area. What does the size of the assaults let you know?
I believe that Trump and his management are going for regime alternate with those huge moves and with the entire ships and a few troops within the house. I believe there it will likely be a pair extra days’ value of moves. They’ll get started off with the time-honored means of attacking what’s referred to as command and keep an eye on, the nerve facilities for controlling Iran’s army. From media reporting, we already know that the place of dwelling of Excellent Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei used to be attacked.
What’s the U.S. strategic finish recreation right here?
Regime alternate goes to be tough. We heard Trump lately name for the Iranian other folks to convey the federal government down. Within the first position, that’s tough. It’s arduous for other folks with out a fingers of their palms to convey down an excessively tightly managed regime that has numerous fingers.
The second one level is that U.S. historical past in that house of the arena isn’t just right with this. You might recall that all over the Gulf Battle of 1990-1991, the U.S. principally inspired the Iraqi other folks to get up, after which made its personal resolution to not assault Baghdad, to forestall quick. And that has now not been forgotten in Iraq or surrounding nations. I might be shocked if we noticed a well-liked rebellion in Iran that in point of fact had a possibility of bringing the regime down.
A gaggle of fellows wave Iranian flags as they protest U.S. and Israeli moves in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 28, 2026.
AP Picture/Vahid Salemi
Do you spot the potential of U.S. troops at the flooring to result in regime alternate?
I will be able to stick my neck out right here and say that’s now not going to occur. I imply, there could also be some small particular forces despatched in. That’ll be stored quiet for some time. However so far as massive numbers of U.S. troops, no, I don’t suppose it’s going to occur.
Two causes. First off, any president would really feel that used to be extraordinarily dangerous. Iran’s a large nation with a large army. The dangers you may be taking are massive quantities of casualties, and also you would possibly not reach what you’re looking to do.
However Trump, specifically, in spite of the army strike in opposition to Iran and the only in opposition to Venezuela, isn’t a large fan of giant army interventions and struggle. He’s a man who will ship in fighter planes and small particular forces gadgets, however now not 10,000 or 20,000 troops.
And the cause of this is, all the way through his profession, he does smartly with somewhat little bit of chaos. He doesn’t thoughts developing somewhat little bit of chaos and working out a approach to make a benefit at the different facet of that. Battle is an excessive amount of chaos. It’s in point of fact arduous to expect what the end result goes to be, what the entire ramifications are going to be. All over his first time period and the primary 12 months of his 2d time period, he has proven no inclination to ship flooring troops anyplace.
Talking of President Trump, what are the hazards he faces?
One chance is occurring presently, which is that the Iranians might get fortunate or sensible and set up to assault a in point of fact just right goal and kill numerous other folks, like one thing in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv or a U.S. army base.
The second one chance is that the assaults don’t paintings, that the excellent chief and whoever else is regarded as the political management of Iran survives, and the U.S. finishes up with egg on its face.
The 3rd chance is that it really works to a definite extent. You’re taking out the highest other folks, however then who steps into their sneakers? I imply, return and take a look at Venezuela. Most of the people would have concept that who used to be going to finally end up successful on the finish of that used to be the top of the opposition. Nevertheless it wound up being the vp of the previous regime, Delcy Rodríguez.
I will be able to see a an identical situation in Iran, if Khamenei and a few different leaders had been taken out. However the one establishment in Iran sturdy sufficient to be triumphant them is the military, the Modern Guards specifically. Would that be an growth for the U.S.? It depends upon what their angle used to be. The similar angle that the vp of Venezuela has been taking, which is, “Look, this is a fact of life. We better negotiate with the Americans and figure out some way forward we can both live with.”
However those guys are beautiful hardcore revolutionaries. I imply, Iran has been below modern management for 47 years. A lot of these guys are true believers. I don’t know if we’ll be capable of paintings with them.
Smoke rises over Tehran on Feb. 28, 2026, after the U.S. and Israel introduced airstrikes on Iran.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu by means of Getty Photographs
Any final ideas?
I believe the timing is fascinating. In the event you return to final 12 months, Trump, after being in place of job somewhat and staring at the placement between Israel and Gaza, used to be given a gap, when Israeli Top Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Qatar.
Numerous conservative Mideast regimes, who didn’t have an enormous downside with Israel, necessarily mentioned “That’s going too far.” And Trump used to be ready to make use of that as an excuse. He used to be ready to really say, “Okay, you’ve gone too far. You’re really taking risk with world peace. Everybody’s gonna sit at the table.”
I believe the similar factor’s going down right here. I consider many nations would like to peer regime alternate in Iran. However you’ll be able to’t cross into the rustic and say, “We don’t like the political leadership being elected. We’re going to get rid of them for you.” What regularly occurs in that scenario is other folks start to rally across the flag. They start to rally across the govt when the bombs get started falling.
However in the previous few months, we’ve noticed an enormous human rights crackdown in Iran. We might by no means know the selection of other folks the Iranian regime killed in the previous few months, however 10,000 to fifteen,000 protesters turns out a minimal.
That’s the excuse Trump can use. You’ll be able to promote it to the Iranian other folks and say, “Look, they’re killing you in the streets. Forget about your problems with Israel and the U.S. and everything. They’re real, but you’re getting killed in the streets, and that’s why we’re intervening.” It’s somewhat of a fig leaf.
Now, as I mentioned previous, the issue with that is in case your subsequent line is, “You know, we’re going to really soften this regime up with bombs; now it’s your time to go out in the streets and bring the regime down.” I might consume those phrases, however I don’t suppose that’s going to occur. The regime is simply too sturdy for it to be introduced down by means of naked palms.
