Over the last few years, beef up for Welsh independence has grown in tactics now not observed earlier than. A contemporary ballot commissioned by means of YesCymru, a pro-independence marketing campaign staff, discovered that 41% of people that’ve made up their minds at the factor would now vote in favour of independence.
The hanging discovering is that the quantity jumps to 72% amongst 25-to-34 12 months olds. In the meantime older generations, specifically the ones elderly 65 and up, stay firmly within the “no” camp, with 80% hostile.
This does appear a large shift in public temper. However does it imply Wales is turning into extra nationalist? No longer precisely.
The connection between constitutional attitudes and nationalism is difficult, as analysis alone and associates presentations. Many of us again independence for causes that experience much less to do with feeling strongly Welsh or waving flags, and extra to do with in need of higher decision-making nearer to house.
Throughout 2021, as a part of a broader analysis venture on Welsh other people’s perspectives at the COVID pandemic and vaccination, we spoke to other people from other ages, backgrounds and places. Some had been vaccinated, others weren’t. Some had voted in elections whilst others hadn’t voted in years, if ever.
Many of us we talked to felt the Welsh authorities had achieved a greater process than Westminster at dealing with the pandemic. They noticed the choices made in Wales – like holding stricter laws in position when England at ease theirs – as extra smart, extra worrying, and extra consistent with what they in my opinion sought after from a central authority. And with that got here a self assurance that Wales may take care of much more keep watch over over its personal affairs.
Traditionally, Welsh nationalism used to be tightly connected to the Welsh language and tradition. Self-government used to be all the time part of the dialog, however now not essentially the principle driving force. That began converting within the past due twentieth century.
In 1979, Wales voted in opposition to devolution. In 1997, it narrowly vote in favour. Thereafter, issues slowly started to shift – and now, greater than 25 years into devolution, beef up for self-government is the mainstream view. Independence is not one of these fringe thought.
Curiously, more youthful generations are way more open to it – and lots of of them aren’t what you’d normally recall to mind as nationalists. They won’t talk Welsh or see themselves as “political” within the conventional sense. Their beef up incessantly comes from sensible considerations concerning the financial system, democracy and the way selections are made.
Exterior occasions like Brexit have obviously performed a job. In reality, the YesCymru marketing campaign used to be shaped simply earlier than the EU referendum in 2016. Independence beef up surged afterwards, particularly amongst Stay citizens.
Many noticed the Brexit fallout, in addition to austerity, as evidence that Westminster didn’t mirror their values or priorities. This confirmed how disruptive occasions can reshape the way in which other people see their position inside of the United Kingdom.
Independence with out nationalism?
Some of the extra unexpected findings in our analysis – echoed within the 2025 polling – is that beef up for independence doesn’t all the time come from people who find themselves politically engaged or pro-devolution. In reality, some beef up got here from individuals who hadn’t voted in years, or felt totally disappointed with the political gadget.
They expressed their beef up for independence via statements like: “They all need to go [meaning the Welsh government], but if I pay tax in Wales I want it to stay in Wales and be spent here.”
We additionally discovered numerous other people sitting at the fence. They weren’t in opposition to independence, however that they had giant questions on it. Would it not imply isolation? Would it not result in extra department?
One individual instructed us: “I’m a little bit nationalistic, but I didn’t want the UK to leave the EU. So why would I want Wales to leave the UK?” Any other stated: “I don’t believe in borders, but I do think the Welsh government should run things.”
A march in beef up of Welsh independence in October 2022.
Mark Lewis/Alamy
Those aren’t black-and-white perspectives. Other folks’s emotions about independence – and nationalism – are incessantly stuffed with contradictions. And this displays the broader fact that abnormal affairs of state are incessantly messy. Maximum people don’t are living within the extremes, and it is a just right factor.
What’s additionally price noting is that nationalism takes many bureaucracy. Some individuals who strongly oppose Welsh independence accomplish that from an excessively rightwing populist-nationalist viewpoint, the place calls to abolish the Senedd (Welsh parliament) sit down along calls for for exhausting borders and not more immigration. So, the belief that “independence equals nationalism” isn’t all the time true – and neither is the opposite.
May independence in point of fact occur?
Wales isn’t by myself in debating giant questions on its long term. In puts similar to Scotland, Catalonia and Flanders, political and financial crises can gas actions for independence. In a majority of these instances, agree with in central authorities and a want for extra native fiscal keep watch over have performed a big position.
For Wales, the query incessantly comes again to the financial system. Whilst religion in Wales’s talent to manipulate is rising, many nonetheless fear whether or not an impartial Wales may stand by itself financially. And for numerous unsure citizens, that is still the sticking level. Because of this, granting Wales extra powers via devolution would possibly do extra to stave off calls for for independence than anything.
However the dialog is moving. Strengthen for independence is not with regards to nationalist grievances. It’s about how other people need to be ruled, and about agree with and responsiveness.
So, does supporting Welsh independence make you a nationalist? No longer essentially. For lots of, it’s now not about nationalism in any respect.
