Prior to launching his battle on Iran, President Donald Trump mentioned his maximum essential objective was once that Iran would “never have a nuclear weapon.” But it’s not transparent what, if anything else, his management has deliberate for coping with Iran’s inventory of enriched uranium which may be used to make nuclear bombs – or its ultimate deeply buried nuclear amenities and the nuclear apparatus that may well be in them, or hidden in other places.
U.S. and Israeli moves in June 2025 significantly broken Iran’s main nuclear amenities and killed a number of outstanding scientists related to the rustic’s nuclear program. On the other hand, opposite to Trump’s declare that the Iranian nuclear program have been “completely obliterated,” it seems that that Iran had saved a lot or all of its enriched uranium in deep tunnels that weren’t destroyed.
The Trump management’s call for, simply two days earlier than the assaults started, that Iran export its enriched uranium shares represented a tacit acknowledgment that Iran’s govt nonetheless had keep watch over of this subject material or may just get get admission to to it.
So, as airstrikes on Iran proceed, an unclear destiny faces a number of parts of Iran’s nuclear program, together with:
Its inventory of enriched uranium.
Its centrifuges for enriching extra uranium, and portions for extra centrifuges.
Any apparatus it’s going to have for turning enriched uranium into steel, shaping it into nuclear guns elements and taking different weapons-assembly steps.
The paperwork and experience from its previous nuclear guns program.
Its as-yet-intact nuclear amenities which can be deep underground.
I’ve been finding out steps to forestall the unfold of nuclear guns – together with managing the hazards of Iran’s nuclear program – for many years. My conclusion is if these kind of features stay in position, the battle may have achieved little in lowering Iran’s nuclear capacity, whilst most probably expanding the federal government’s trust that it wishes a nuclear weapon to shield itself.
A map displays the places in Iran of more than a few actions associated with the rustic’s nuclear guns program.
Ufuk Celal Guzel/Anadolu by way of Getty Pictures
The place may just Iran’s uranium be?
Satellite tv for pc pictures are a key manner different countries get a take a look at Iran’s efforts to construct a nuclear weapon.
Satellite tv for pc symbol (c) 2025 Vantor by way of Getty Pictures
Probably the most rapid worry is more or less 970 kilos (441 kilograms) of extremely enriched uranium containing 60% of the U-235 isotope this is somewhat simple to separate. That’s what Iran was once believed to have earlier than the summer time 2025 bombings, and far of it reportedly survived the ones moves.
Over 440 kilos (200 kilograms) of it’s reportedly saved in deep underground tunnels close to Isfahan. Different shares of this subject material are considered in a deep underground facility close to Natanz referred to as Pickaxe Mountain, and in Fordow, one of the most websites bombed in summer time 2025.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Team of workers, has reportedly said that the Isfahan tunnels are too deep to spoil with bunker-buster bombs like the ones used at the underground Fordow facility ultimate summer time. Pickaxe Mountain, below granite, could be no less than as difficult a goal.
What may just the uranium be used for?
With simply 100 centrifuges, Iran may just additional enrich the 60% enriched subject material to be 90% or extra U-235 in a couple of weeks. That’s the focus wanted for the nuclear weapon design that Iran was once running on in the name of the game nuclear guns program it in large part stopped in overdue 2003.
Even with out additional enrichment, the 60% enriched subject material may well be utilized in a bomb, both exploding with much less energy or the use of extra subject material and explosives.
Past Iran the use of this subject material itself, there are different issues. No one is aware of who would possibly get it if Iran’s govt collapses. Some lower-level folks managing it would make a decision to take a look at to promote it as a part of seeking to save themselves from the present disaster, as came about after the 1991 cave in of the Soviet Union. Executive research have warned that even an advanced terrorist team could possibly make a crude nuclear bomb if it had the wanted uranium.
Matthew Bunn explains how nuclear bombs paintings.
May it’s got rid of peacefully?
One chance is that the present Iranian govt, or a long run one, may well be prepared to cooperate or no less than acquiesce in eliminating the rustic’s nuclear subject material. The present Iranian govt reportedly presented to mix it right down to a decrease focus within the negotiations that Trump ended via attacking Iran in February 2026.
Extremely enriched uranium has been got rid of from many cooperative international locations through the years. One early instance was once Undertaking Sapphire, in 1994, wherein U.S. groups labored with Kazakhstan to fly some 1,280 kilos (580 kilograms) of extremely enriched uranium to secure garage in Tennessee. Equivalent efforts have got rid of lots of plutonium and extremely enriched uranium from rankings of web sites all over the world, taking away the danger that terrorists may just pay money for that subject material.
Matthew Bunn explains how extremely enriched uranium and plutonium are produced.
May it’s captured?
With out cooperation, and with the uranium in tunnels too deep to spoil from the air, the one different possibility for getting rid of them may well be sending in a workforce of both U.S. or Israeli infantrymen and mavens whilst the battle continues.
U.S. particular forces troops have lengthy skilled with federal scientists and mavens to disable or protected adversaries’ nuclear guns and subject material. Nevertheless it wouldn’t be simple: Mark Esper, a protection secretary in Trump’s first time period, has warned that if truth be told doing so in Iran would take a big drive and be “very perilous.”
Trump has mentioned he would handiest accomplish that if Iran was once “so decimated that they wouldn’t be able to fight on the ground level.”
Scale fashions of Iranian ballistic missiles and centrifuges are displayed in Tehran in November 2025.
Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto by way of Getty Pictures
If nuclear fabrics have been captured, what then?
Iran’s nuclear subject material is within the type of uranium hexafluoride, in boxes fairly very similar to scuba tanks.
The most simple however messiest possibility could be to explode the boxes, with explosives hooked up to each and every one. The uranium hexafluoride would deposit at the partitions, flooring and rubble within the tunnels, making it very tricky to ever get well and use. However the tunnels would then be infected and unusable, and the workforce would wish to watch out about its personal protection.
For an easier possibility, the fabric may just hypothetically be packaged and flown out, as within the cooperative method. However there are possibly dozens of boxes, jointly weighing lots, in a couple of places deep within Iran, a rustic as giant as Western Europe. Troops would wish to accumulate the fabric from a number of puts, protected an airstrip close to each and every, truck or helicopter the apparatus and subject material to and from the strip, and shield in opposition to assaults at the arrangements and shipments.
An alternative choice may well be to mix the fabric with less-concentrated uranium so it would no longer be utilized in a nuclear bomb. That will even be tricky, requiring the supply of apparatus and lots of uranium for mixing into an energetic battle zone. The Nationwide Nuclear Safety Management has evolved cellular apparatus up to now for equivalent efforts, although it hasn’t ever been utilized in a battle zone. And flying the entirety again out of Iran could be some other logistical nightmare.
Such an operation would handle the extremely enriched uranium Iran has already produced – if america and Israel are assured they know the place all of it is.
However Iran additionally has stockpiles of less-enriched uranium, together with over 6 lots enriched to five% U-235, a few of which may additionally have survived the moves. That won’t sound like a lot, however to achieve that point, two-thirds of the paintings of enriching the entire solution to 90% has already been accomplished. And the centrifuges and centrifuge portions that Iran more than likely nonetheless has may just at all times be used to make extra.
An World Atomic Power Company inspector works at one in every of Iran’s nuclear analysis facilities in Natanz in January 2014.
Kazem Ghane/IRNA/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Every other finishing
Trump might select to take a look at to forestall the battle with out coping with Iran’s uranium stockpiles or any of those different features. That would depart a weakened however embittered regime perhaps extra made up our minds than ever to make a nuclear bomb – and nonetheless with the fabric and far of the data and gear wanted to take action.
To mitigate the hazards of that, america and Israel would possibly successfully say to Iran, “Don’t you dare use those tunnels or take anything out of them or we’ll hit you again.” However this is hardly ever a long-term resolution.
Basically, Iran’s nuclear wisdom can’t be bombed away. In the long run, I imagine, U.S. safety could be highest served via agreements to restrict Iran’s nuclear efforts, coupled with efficient world inspection, preserving watch yr after yr. Provisions to do this have been central to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal between China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, america, the Eu Union and Iran. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the settlement in 2018, enabling Iran to make the extremely enriched uranium that now poses a threat.
For my part, handiest international relations can once more supply strict limits and efficient tracking sooner or later. However this battle might neatly have ruined the probabilities for such diplomatic choices for many future years.
