After U.S. and Israeli missiles struck Iran’s nuclear websites in June 2025, Tehran replied with a restricted assault at the American airbase in Qatar. 5 years ahead of that, a U.S. drone strike in opposition to Qasem Soleimani, head of the tough Islamic Progressive Guard Corps Quds Drive, used to be met with adopted by means of an assault on two American bases in Iraq in a while thereafter.
Be expecting none of that restraint by means of Iran’s leaders following the newest U.S. and Israeli army operation lately taking part in out within the Gulf country.
Within the early hours of Feb. 28, 2026, loads of missiles struck more than one websites in Iran. A part of “Operation Epic Fury,” because the U.S. Division of Protection has known as it, the moves practice months of U.S. army buildup within the area. However in addition they come after obvious diplomatic efforts, within the form of a chain of nuclear talks in Oman and Geneva geared toward a relaxed answer.
This kind of deal is no doubt now totally off the desk. In scale and scope, the U.S. and Israel assault is going a long way past any earlier moves at the Gulf country.
In reaction, Iran has stated it’ll use “crushing” drive. As knowledgeable on Heart East affairs and a former senior professional on the Nationwide Safety Council right through the primary Trump management, I imagine the calculus each in Washington and extra so in Tehran could be very other from previous confrontations: Iran’s leaders nearly no doubt see this as an existential risk given President Donald Trump’s remark and the army marketing campaign already underway. And there seems to be no obtrusive off-ramp to steer clear of additional escalation.
What we will have to be expecting now’s a reaction from Tehran that makes use of all of its functions – although they have got been considerably degraded. And that are meant to be a fear for all countries within the area and past.
The obvious objectives of the United States operation
It is very important observe that we’re within the early phases of this war – a lot is unknown.
As of Feb. 28, it’s unclear who has been killed amongst Iran’s management and to what extent Iran’s ballistic missile functions were degraded. The truth that ballistic missiles were introduced at regional states that host U.S. army bases means that, at a minimal, Iran’s army functions have now not been solely burnt up.
Iran fired over 600 missiles in opposition to Israel ultimate June right through their 12-day warfare, however media reporting and Iranian statements over the last month steered that Iran controlled to fill up a few of its missile stock, which it’s now the usage of.
Obviously Washington is intent on crippling Iran’s ballistic program, as it’s that capacity that permits Iran to threaten the area maximum immediately. A sticking level within the negotiations in Geneva and Oman used to be U.S. officers’ insistence that each Iran’s ballistic missiles and its funneling of enhance to proxy teams within the area be at the desk, at the side of the longstanding situation that Tehran ends all uranium enrichment. Tehran has lengthy resisted makes an attempt to have limits on its ballistic missiles as a part of any negotiated nuclear deal given their significance in Iran’s nationwide safety doctrine.
This explains why some U.S. and Israeli moves seem to be geared toward disposing of Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile release websites and manufacturing amenities and garage places for such guns.
Without a nuclear weapon, Iran’s ballistic missiles were the rustic’s go-to manner for responding to any risk. And thus far within the present war, they have got been used on countries together with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
‘It will be yours to take’
However the Trump management seems to have expanded its objectives past doing away with Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear army risk. The most recent moves have long past after management, too.
A number of the places of the primary U.S.-Israeli moves used to be a Tehran compound during which the Ideally suited Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in recognized to are living, and Israel’s top minister has showed that the 86-year-old chief used to be a goal of the operation.
Whilst the standing of the ideally suited chief and different key contributors of Iran’s management stays unknown as of this writing, it’s transparent that the U.S. management hopes that regime exchange will practice Operation Epic Fury. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” Trump advised Iranians by way of a video message recorded right through the early hours of the assault.
U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the country on Iran moves.
US President Trump By means of Reality Social/Anadolu by way of Getty Photographs
Regime exchange carries dangers for Trump
Signaling a regime exchange operation would possibly inspire Iranians unsatisfied with many years of repressive rule and financial woes to proceed the place they left off in January – when loads of 1000’s took to the road to protest.
Nevertheless it carries dangers for the U.S. and its pursuits. Iran’s leaders will now not really feel constrained, as they did after the Soleimani assassination and the June 2025 war. On the ones events, Iran replied in some way that used to be now not even proportionate to its losses – restricted moves on American army bases within the area.
Now the gloves are off, and every aspect will probably be seeking to land a knockout blow. However what does that represent? The U.S. management seems to be set on regime exchange. Iran’s management will probably be in search of one thing that is going past its earlier retaliatory moves – and that most probably way American deaths. That eventuality has been expected by means of Trump, who warned that there may well be American casualties.
So why is Trump prepared to chance that now? It’s transparent to me that regardless of communicate of development within the rounds of diplomatic talks, Trump has misplaced his persistence with the method.
On Feb. 26, after the newest spherical of talks in Geneva, we didn’t listen a lot from the U.S. aspect. Trump’s calculus will have been that Iran wasn’t taking the trace – made transparent by means of including a 2d service strike workforce to the opposite warships and loads of fighter plane despatched to the area over the last a number of weeks – that Tehran had no possibility rather then agreeing to the U.S. calls for.
Iranians watch as explosions erupt throughout Tehran.
AP Photograph
What occurs subsequent
What we don’t know is whether or not the U.S. technique is now to pause and notice if an preliminary spherical of moves has compelled Iran to sue for peace – or whether or not the preliminary moves are only a prelude to extra to return.
For now, the diplomatic send seems to have sailed. Trump turns out to don’t have any urge for food for a deal now – he simply desires Iran’s regime long past.
With a purpose to do this, he has made numerous calculated gambles. First politically and legally: Trump didn’t undergo Congress ahead of ordering Operation Epic Fury. Not like 23 years in the past when President George W. Bush took the U.S. into Iraq, there is not any warfare authorization giving the president duvet.
As a substitute, White Area legal professionals should have assessed that Trump can perform this operation underneath his Article 2 powers to behave as commander in leader. Even so, the 1973 Conflict Powers Act will imply the clock is now ticking. If the assaults aren’t concluded in 60 days, the management should return to Congress and say the operation is whole, or paintings with Congress for an authorization to make use of drive or a proper declaration of warfare.
The second one gamble is whether or not Iranians will heed his name to take away a regime that many have lengthy sought after long past. Given the ferocity of the regime’s reaction to the protests in January, which resulted within the deaths of 1000’s of Iranians, are Iranians prepared to stand down Iran’s inside safety forces and pressure what stays of the regime from energy?
3rd, the U.S. management has made a chance that the Iranian regime – even faced with an existential risk – does now not have the potential to tug the U.S. right into a long war to inflict large casualties.
And this ultimate level is an important. Professionals know Tehran has no nuclear bomb and simplest has a restricted stockpile of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles.
However it may lean on unconventional functions. Terrorism is an actual worry – both in the course of the Islamic Progressive Guard Corps’ Quds Drive, which coordinates Iran’s unconventional war, or via its partnership with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Or actors just like the Houthis in Yemen or Shia militias in Iraq would possibly search to habits assaults in opposition to U.S. pursuits in unity with Iran or directed to take action by means of the regime.
A mass casualty tournament would possibly put political drive on Trump, however I can’t see it resulting in U.S. boots on flooring in Iran. The American public doesn’t have the urge for food for such an eventuality, and that will necessitate Trump gaining Congressional approval, which for now has now not but materialized.
Nobody has a crystal ball, and it’s early in an operation that can most probably move on for days, if now not longer. However something is apparent: Iran’s regime is going through an existential risk. Don’t be expecting it to turn restraint.
