It’s anticipated that the German financial system’s business deficit with China will keep growing in comparison to the former yr. This follows from a forecast by way of the federally owned building corporate German Industry & Make investments (GTAI). As a result, German imports from China will exceed the price of products exported there by way of round 87 billion euros this yr.
That may be about 20 billion euros greater than in 2024. As well as, the most important business deficit up to now from 2022 could be exceeded. It was once a just right 84 billion euros.
Susceptible exports are handiest one of the most causes
A rising business deficit is “certainly not in our interest,” GTAI East Asia deputy director Christina Otte stated. One reason why is general vulnerable German exports: German exports to China are anticipated to fall by way of greater than 11 p.c this yr to round 80 billion euros.
In line with Ote, this is able to imply that China would handiest be in 6th position amongst German gross sales markets. Only some years in the past, it was once in 2d position at the back of the United States. “Things are not going well in China’s domestic economy,” Otte stated of the explanations. “In addition, more and more German companies are producing locally.”
Chinese language exporters are transferring to Europe
There also are “diversion effects” on account of US tariff coverage. Items that may not be offered in the USA ended up in Germany, amongst different puts. “Chinese exporters are pushing more and more into Europe now,” Otte stated. Information on China’s exports from January to September 2025 confirmed that exports to the US fell by way of 17 p.c. The ones to Europe, however, greater by way of 8 p.c, and handiest to Germany by way of up to 11 p.c.
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In line with GTAI estimates, China stays crucial nation of foundation for imports into Germany this yr. Accordingly, the expansion is basically within the import {of electrical} engineering, textiles, equipment, steel items and chemical merchandise. From January to August 2025 by myself, German purchases {of electrical} engineering from China greater by way of €2.2 billion, textiles and clothes by way of €1.5 billion and equipment by way of €1.2 billion.
Particular person product teams with the best possible expansion incorporated lithium-ion batteries, recreation consoles, sneakers, auto portions, house home equipment, digital circuits and prescribed drugs. General, GTAI expects German imports from China to extend by way of greater than six p.c to round 167 billion euros in 2025.
financial system
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