Right through the pre-election marketing campaign for municipalities, the query returns to the general public debate: what’s the impact of immigration on native public funds? Clarification in information and graphics according to a learn about carried out from 2007 to 2017 (earlier than the abolition of housing tax).
The top of “tolerated illegal immigration” is proposed by means of the candidate for mayor of Lyon (Rhone) Jean-Michel Aulas. In Le Mans (Sarts), the chief of the Nationwide Rally listing talks concerning the “immigration problem”. In Paris, the socialist Emmanuel Grégoire gifts himself as a candidate who “defends the history of immigration.”
At the social community TikTok, immigration is the subject that generates probably the most engagement – likes, reposts, and so on. – in those municipal campaigns in 2026. With the exception of elections, immigration occupies a central position in public debates. Migrants are noticed as an extra burden at the financial system. Within the context of public funds beneath power, it’s broadly believed that the arriving of immigrants would weaken municipal budgets.
The information tells a special tale. If we take a look at the fiscal results of migration for the length 2007-2017, I underline within the learn about, printed in January, that migrants give a contribution definitely to native public funds.
Defining immigration to know its budgetary results
First we need to get started by means of defining what an immigrant is. In step with the Prime Council for Integration from 1992, an immigrant is an individual born as a foreigner out of the country and who lately is living on French territory. In step with this definition, INSEE information presentations that immigrants constitute 10.7% of the inhabitants in 2023 – in comparison to 9.7% in 2017.
Notes: The time period “immigrant” contains all foreign-born people, irrespective of their naturalization standing. The map represents the percentage of immigrants (%) within the general inhabitants by means of division. Creator calculations according to Census information (2017), supplied by means of writer (no reuse)
This map highlights huge territorial variations: huge city facilities, particularly Ile-de-France, obtain a vital share of immigrants, smartly above the nationwide reasonable. Then again, the fewer urbanized departments, particularly within the middle and west of France, have significantly much less.
To make the relationship with budgetary problems, you will need to keep in mind that all other people living in France are topic to tax, irrespective of their nationality: “In case you are a tax resident in France, you’re topic to source of revenue tax in France to your French and international source of revenue. » Taxes at municipal stage are principally native taxes levied by means of municipalities, comparable to belongings tax.
Notes: Proportion of immigrants within the inhabitants in % in 2022 (newest statistics). Territorial observatory Working out the municipal finances
Municipal monetary accounts are structured in two sections: working operations (group of workers prices, monetary prices or subsidies) and funding operations.
Actual trade revenues of all native government greater from January 31, 2026, in comparison to January 31, 2025, by means of 2.6%, or +6.1 billion euros, particularly associated with the rise in tax revenues of two.7%, or +4.4 billion euros. Exact working prices for communities greater by means of 1.6%, or +3.2 billion euros.
Based on the prison framework outlined by means of article L.1612-4 of the Common Code of Native Government, municipalities are obliged to appreciate the main of actual steadiness, which imposes equality between source of revenue and expenditure.
Accordingly, the native executive can’t foresee a deficit in its operational phase, nor can it finance trade bills via borrowing, as a result of that is solely reserved for financing investments.
Notes: FCTVA corresponds to the Price Added Tax Reimbursement Fund. Creator’s design, according to the legitimate style of person municipal accounts printed by means of DGFIP. The writer supplied (no reuse) the Learn about from 2007 to 2017, earlier than the abolition of housing tax
In keeping with census information and French municipal budgets for the length 2007 to 2017, the learn about I carried out issues out that immigration isn’t a burden on native funds.
You will need to explain that this learn about specializes in the total impact of immigration on municipal funds, now not at the contribution or prices of a specific immigrant. Municipal budgets don’t supply this sort of person knowledge; those are abstract accounts on the municipal stage that replicate general source of revenue and expenditure for all the inhabitants.
The harmonized INSEE database, alternatively, permits acquiring knowledge at the traits of voters till 2017. This number of length is motivated by means of fiscal causes: after 2017, the device underwent important adjustments, particularly the sluggish abolition of the housing tax from 2018, which makes comparisons over the years tricky.
Working out the have an effect on of immigrants on municipal funds
In my learn about, I measured the have an effect on of immigration on municipal funds, by means of distinguishing the operational and funding portions and inspecting every monetary merchandise in an actual method.
Income enlargement exceeds trade bills
An building up within the proportion of immigrants a number of the citizens of a municipality is related to an building up in source of revenue, but in addition an building up in working prices in step with capita. Particularly, a one proportion level (distinction between two %) building up within the proportion of immigrants ends up in a 1.84% building up in general working source of revenue in step with capita and a 1.77% building up in general working expenditure in step with capita.
Self-financing capability: the achieve related to immigration
This dynamic is mirrored within the self-financing capability (CAF) of municipalities, which measures the to be had finances for financing funding tasks, with out resorting to borrowing.
Estimates display that an building up within the proportion of immigrants by means of one proportion level is related to an building up in self-financing capability of one.89% and a slight building up in web self-financing capability of 0.05%, this is, after making an allowance for mortgage repayments.
De facto, expanding the percentage of immigrants strengthens this capability, giving municipalities extra monetary sources to enforce their tasks.
Certain result of municipal investments
As for the funding phase, immigration is related to an building up in to be had sources and expenditure in step with capita. An building up within the proportion of immigrants by means of one proportion level ends up in an building up of three.67% in sources and three.57% in funding expenditure in step with capita.
Tips on how to calculate whether or not municipalities have to be had sources? The established time period is the monetary requirement, this is, the adaptation between expenditure and funding sources. When sources exceed prices, the municipality can depend on to be had finances; another way, it will have to in finding further financing.
An building up within the proportion of immigrants does now not result in further power on financing wishes in step with capita and is even quite really helpful, with an impact of -0.065% on financing wishes, even if this impact stays modest.
Borrow extra to take a position extra
To finance their tasks, municipalities depend on their present sources, public help and, every now and then, de facto debt-creating borrowing. The debt is a separate merchandise within the municipal accounts and right here it corresponds to the overall steadiness of money owed (the overall quantity due on December 31 of every 12 months) in addition to the annuity of the debt (annual capital reimbursement).
On the finish of 2022, the debt of communities and their teams (with out unions) amounted to 159.3 billion euros.
A rising debt, and what’s in reality left within the coffers of a municipality
A one proportion level building up within the proportion of immigrants is related to a 4.17% building up in debt in step with capita and a three.46% building up in annuity debt in step with capita. In different phrases, an building up within the migrant inhabitants in a municipality is on reasonable accompanied by means of a relatively larger recourse to borrowing, each for the overall quantity and for annual debt reimbursement.
If debt presentations how investments are financed in the long run, liquidity signifies the cash to be had to the municipality within the brief time period.
As a way to know whether or not the municipality’s funds are beneath power, it will be extra related to have a look at present belongings, i.e. belongings that stay after financing infrastructure and sustainable investments.
The consequences display that an building up within the proportion of immigrants within the inhabitants by means of one proportion level is related to an building up in municipal operating capital of one.82%, which signifies that the presence of immigrants does now not compress the monetary reserves of municipalities.
With immigration, the cheap that closes within the inexperienced
The whole steadiness of municipal funds (revenues and expenditures) reacted in the similar course, with an building up of one.91%, leaving the important margin for municipalities to near the 12 months with a surplus within the finances and satisfy their monetary duties.
General, even supposing municipal debt will increase quite, native funds aren’t beneath power from immigration. The latter strengthens each the money go with the flow and budgetary capability of municipalities, as an alternative of weakening them.
