Pump costs cross up like a rocket however fall like a feather. A apparently mysterious paradox. If truth be told, a liter of gas is the sum of 3 parameters: the product, i.e. the crude oil this is then processed, logistics and distribution prices, and above all taxes. Working out this breakdown clarifies the conceivable room for maneuver for the state, manufacturers and vendors.
At first it used to be a “black gold” product. The gas comes from crude oil, incessantly listed to the cost of Brent, transformed from greenbacks to euros, after which processed in refineries. When the alternate opened on February 15, 2026, the cost of a barrel of Brent used to be $68.54 (€59.77), $100.88 (€87.98) on March 24, 2026, and $106.6 (€92.937) on March 2, 2026.
SP95 value evaluation in France 2026. Roole
Logically, when the cost of a barrel of Brent rises (or when the euro falls), the cost of uncooked fabrics within the ultimate value of gas additionally rises. Conversely, if the cost of crude oil decreases, the cost of uncooked fabrics robotically decreases, however no longer at all times instantly! Certainly, there are delays related to stock or provide circuits.
The order of magnitude is helping to orient ourselves: a barrel of Brent accommodates 159 liters. A variation of ten further greenbacks according to barrel (€8.69) raises the cost of a liter of fuel by way of $6 cents (0.052 euro cents) “before tax”, to which alternate fee and processing results are added.
Brent barrel value on March 31, 2025 $73.76; as of March 31, 2026, $115.04. Boursorama From oil garage to carrier
The second one a part of the fee refers back to the transportation, garage and sale of gas from the oil garage to the gasoline stations.
Those logistics prices are expanding yr by way of yr because of inflation – 5.2% in 2022 and zero.9% in 2025. Upper wages or promotion could have penalties on the cost of gas. Consistent with INSEE, from 2022, delivery and distribution prices have risen “more moderately” than crude oil and refining, however nonetheless by way of round +9 euro cents according to liter over the duration studied.
Even prior to the gasoline station markup, a part of the fee displays upstream markups, together with processing markup and wholesale marketplace stipulations. They may be able to briefly vary, particularly in case of logistical tensions.
Every other necessary level: In spite of the debates, gasoline station web margins most often stay low. From 2 eurocents according to liter for mass distribution stations to round 8 eurocents according to liter for dearer stations within the unbiased community.
Shoppers can observe gas costs in actual time at gasoline stations in France. Gouv.fr Executive taxes
Taxes made up our minds by way of the state and supplemented by way of the areas are essentially the most visual a part of the cost of a liter of gas. They constitute between 50% and 60% of the general value, relying on the kind of gas and the extent of the barrel. The end result: when the cost of crude oil fluctuates, best a part of the fee on the pump will also be adjusted, and the remaining is fiscal and due to this fact moderately inflexible.
Two components will have to be regarded as:
Excise Responsibility (previously Tax on Home Intake of Power, or TICPE), which represents 36% of the pump value of diesel and 39% of the cost of unleaded (SP95). The mounted quantity according to liter (in 2026, aside from regional will increase) is 68.29 euro cents according to liter for petrol and 59.40 euro cents according to liter for diesel. The nationwide excise tax has been solid since 2018.
Price added tax (VAT) of 20% since 2006, which applies to the fee with out tax, but additionally to excise responsibility. When the cost of a product will increase, VAT is robotically higher.
In 2025, all areas, apart from Corsica, followed the utmost building up within the excise responsibility fee.
Counterintuitive Results of Tax Cuts
At the state aspect, the primary room for maneuver is fiscal. As an example, brief or everlasting amendment of excise responsibility and use of reimbursement schemes reminiscent of common or focused “rebates”.
Sébastien Lecornu’s 2026 govt helps a €70m reinforce plan with “targeted aid”.
Any tax aid has an excessively important value to the funds, as gas excises stay a big supply of source of revenue. In 2022, pump value reductions value the state greater than 8 billion euros; In 2023, gas tests will quantity to just about one thousand million.
Notice the necessarily counterintuitive part: when costs cross up, drivers incessantly finally end up chopping again. Alternatively, excise responsibility is charged according to litre. In consequence, if quantity falls, excise earnings additionally falls, which will offset (and even opposite) the VAT positive aspects related to the next value.
Distributor Margins (Low)
“operation transparency” gas poster. 40 million drivers, CC BI-NC
At the distributor aspect, carrier stations reminiscent of Shell, Avia, TotalEnergies, Carrefour, Leclerc or Esso can modify their margins. For a extremely aggressive product like gas, it comes to only some cents.
That is why the Nationwide Automotive Federation and the affiliation of 40 million drivers (versus the city radars and motorbike lanes in post-closure Paris) introduced “transparency of work” on March 19, 2026. Problem: display correct main points of the cost of a liter of gas on the checkout.
“Rockets and Feathers”
“Prices go up like a rocket but come down like a feather.” In economics, this phenomenon is referred to as rockets and feathers. A learn about of the British marketplace issues out that retail costs modify extra briefly when prices upward thrust than after they fall. Every other learn about, in america, confirms this contradiction.
Evolution of gas costs in France from 2007 to 2026. Roole, CC BI-NC
This asymmetry seems for a number of causes.
Supply occasions and inventory
The station sells gas purchased “yesterday” “today”. If crude oil falls, the “theoretical” value instantly falls, however the gas within the tank is paid for on the previous value.
Conversely, when prices upward thrust, the danger of promoting at a loss makes adjustment quicker. As a result of promoting at a loss is a prohibited business observe.
Adjustment and coordination prices
In lots of distribution networks, costs replace “in spurts” and no longer incessantly. Stations don’t revise their show at each and every micro-change out there, however at particular occasions (as an example, a couple of times an afternoon), incessantly having a look on the costs of neighboring stations. This setup means can decelerate crashes, because the station waits for more info (a crash affirmation) or the “right time” to align.
Motive force conduct
When costs upward thrust sharply, customers examine extra, transfer stations and festival “activates”: therefore extra common value updates. When costs fall, aggressive force is most often much less intense. The drop then propagates extra slowly.
“Rigid” taxes
The presence of an excise tax fixes, or “firms” the fee. When the product falls, the tax proportion stays the similar. Logically, the whole drop on the pump is automatically much less impressive than the oil variation (and due to this fact now and again much less visual).
Lengthy-term prices
When geopolitical information turns into demanding, particularly within the Strait of Hormuz, the “product parameter” will get over excited, which is mercilessly transmitted to gasoline station pumps. Because of this, drivers see their gas expenses upward thrust inexorably.
To catch up on those value will increase, the state has actual leverage thru taxes (VAT and excise), however it’s politically delicate and costly for public price range.
Oil manufacturers, reminiscent of Canada, Saudi Arabia or Kazakhstan, affect upstream thru manufacturing ranges and the cost of a barrel of crude oil (Brent). Vendors most commonly depend at the pace of value transmission, with restricted benefit.
Those margins of maneuver exist, however they’re hardly instant and virtually at all times include medium and long-term prices.
