US president Donald Trump thrust Greenland to the centre of worldwide politics when he proposed to shop for the huge, icebound island originally of the yr. With the arena looking at, Greenlandic electorate went to the polls on March 11 2025 and delivered a landslide victory for a celebration that informed Trump, “We are not for sale.”
Greenland is an self reliant territory inside the Kingdom of Denmark and its combat for independence is a big political battleground. Each the right-wing Demokraatit (Democrats), now the biggest celebration, and the socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) that they lately decimated are pro-independence. On the other hand, additionally they need a slower independence procedure than the populist-nationalist Naleraq, which additionally did neatly within the election.
Whilst overseas observers could have had their consideration attracted to Greenland via Trump, they shouldn’t glance away now. The end result of this election has made a fossil-fuelled long run for Greenland much more likely, simply when the escalating local weather disaster calls for an pressing world transition to renewable power.
The most important to Greenland’s long run is its base of financial manufacturing. Greenland is estimated to have one of the vital global’s biggest untapped oil and fuel sources.
In keeping with the United States Geological Survey, the basin off Greenland’s east coast by myself comprises 31 billion barrels of oil identical and west Greenland about part of that. If this used to be all recoverable, Greenland may just transform one of the crucial global’s biggest fossil gasoline manufacturers.
However those fossil fuels are extraordinarily tough to extract. The unwelcoming terrain – an unlimited ice sheet on land, icebergs at sea – led successive fossil gasoline corporations to surrender their hunt for oil and fuel. At the present time, Greenland’s fossil fuels merely aren’t technically and commercially viable to get out of the bottom.
In contrast backdrop, IA handed a ban on all fossil gasoline exploration and extraction when it got here to energy after the 2021 election. It used to be justified via the destructive affects a fossil gasoline trade would have at the nation’s fragile surroundings and the worldwide local weather, in addition to home fisheries, which general 98% of Greenland’s export price.
The ban suits inside of an international motion to chop now not simply using fossil fuels, but additionally their provide. The explanation is that extraction of fossil fuels should finish to forestall them from additional expanding local weather trade. After the ban, Greenland joined a gaggle of like-minded nations referred to as the Past Oil and Fuel Alliance, that have all carried out equivalent regulation.
Different individuals come with Costa Rica, France and Sweden. Maximum spectacular is Denmark – the primary important oil and fuel manufacturer to decide to a phaseout of fossil gasoline manufacturing, albeit via the overdue yr of 2050. However, world efforts to finish fossil gasoline provide proceed to realize tempo, even though primary manufacturers like the United States are getting into the other way.
No oil till after independence
Oil used to be now not a big theme within the 2025 election marketing campaign. Certainly, a brand new celebration proposing an impartial Greenland energised via fossil gasoline extraction known as Qulleq (actually “oil”, a connection with Inuit oil lamps) didn’t win a unmarried seat within the 31-seat parliament, the Inatsisartut.
Chairman of Demokraatit, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, celebrated his celebration profitable 30% of the vote.
EPA-EFE/Mads Claus Rasmussen
Regardless of Qulleq’s failure, the dramatically remade political panorama will permit important adjustments to the way forward for fossil gasoline manufacturing. 5 of six events toughen reconsidering the fossil gasoline ban, with best IA keeping up sturdy opposition. Greater than ever prior to, oil should be understood relating to the existing independence sentiment.
Greenland’s sources aren’t owned via Denmark. This ended with regulation in 2009 and 2020 which granted the Greenlandic state complete keep watch over of the territory’s subsurface. On the other hand, as Denmark continues to pay an annual block grant to toughen the Greenlandic financial system, these days round €600 million (£503 million), Denmark is entitled to part of any earnings from herbal sources as much as the block grant price.
According to pre-election statements via the events, there might be no parliamentary majority to start out oil exploration, let by myself extraction, for now. Naleraq and the centre-left Siumut are each open to pumping oil, however best as soon as Greenland is in a position to retain 100% of the revenues, this means that as soon as the Danish block grant is abolished following independence.
Confronted with the tough prospect of establishing a post-colonial country, fossil fuels are a tempting however unhealthy approach to safe the commercial basis of an impartial Greenland. But, within the lengthy shadow of Denmark’s colonial function, best the folk of Greenland can decide the way forward for the arena’s biggest island.
What occurs to Greenland’s oil and fuel may have primary implications now not only for the Greenlandic other folks, however for the remainder of the arena. As one of the crucial puts maximum prone to the results of the local weather disaster, Greenland is already feeling the consequences of a fossil-fuelled global. If the brand new executive chooses to make use of extraction as its trail to political and financial independence, it is going to have a devastating affect on all of the planet.
