With the Spanish executive’s announcement at the legislation of immigrants who arrive within the nation ahead of December 31, 2025, a query that turns out easy, however hides a logical lure, returns: do folks immigrate to Spain as a result of its economic system is rising, or is the Spanish economic system rising as a result of the arriving of immigrants?
To get the solution, ancient knowledge from 1960 to 2025 gives essential keys to the reason. When web migration balances (the adaptation between the collection of folks getting into and the collection of folks leaving) are crossed with GDP expansion over six a long time, we see that immigration is a result of the commercial cycle, no longer its motive. However this doesn’t imply that this phenomenon shall be inappropriate for the way forward for the Spanish economic system.
When the Spanish left
Throughout the sixties, the Spanish financial miracle was once skilled. In a impressive financial growth, GDP grew at charges in far more than 7% in keeping with 12 months. On the other hand, when having a look on the migration figures at the moment, we see that Spain was once no longer attracting immigrants. To the contrary, the Spaniards have been leaving. Masses of hundreds of Spaniards emigrated to Germany, Switzerland, France and Belgium looking for higher wages and alternatives.
As a result of? As a result of despite the fact that the economic system grew, the expansion didn’t translate into aggressive salaries on the Eu degree or sufficiently top quality jobs. Whilst the economic system was once rising GDP, the exertions power was once reducing. This trend is the clearest proof that migration is a result of the rustic’s relative state of affairs and financial cycles, somewhat than its motive force. Other folks don’t reply to the common nationwide GDP, however to their non-public features.
Financial expansion and migration in Spain 1960-2025. 1960-2022: Ancient knowledge according to the Nationwide Institute of Statistics (INE). 2023 (ultimate): Ultimate knowledge revealed by means of INE. 2024-2025 (Estimates): INE projections for migration stability and consensus forecasts (e.g. Financial institution of Spain, IMF), CC BI-NC Large exchange: from emigrants to immigrants
The exchange of course came about on the finish of the nineties. Between 1998 and 2007, Spain skilled what we may name a perfect financial growth. Enlargement was once robust and extended. Then migration flows dramatically reversed. The online migration stability (the adaptation between arrivals and departures) has skyrocketed. Within the early 2000s, Spain recorded web immigrants of between 300,000 and 600,000 folks in keeping with 12 months. the explanation? The economic system was once rising, there was once a requirement for paintings in sectors similar to building, catering, services and products. Immigrants arrived no longer as a result of anyone introduced them, however as a result of their casual networks – buddies, circle of relatives – advised them that there have been jobs in Spain.
It is very important observe right here that there have been additionally vital legislative adjustments in the ones years. Between 1991 and 2000, Spain applied ordinary legalizations of overseas employees who have been already within the nation irregularly. The regularization processes firstly of the century, related to the Immigration Legislation followed in 2000, enabled the legalization of loads of hundreds of folks already dwelling in Spain. This explains one of the vital sharp jumps in reputable immigration statistics. However those numbers most commonly mirror the transition from irregularity to regularity of a inhabitants that was once already right here.
Disaster: when the go with the flow was once reversed
Then got here 2008 and the nice recession. GDP fell with a double-digit decline. Unemployment has higher manifold. And the migration flows have been once more reversed. Between 2012 and 2014, the migration stability was unfavourable. Extra folks left Spain than entered. Tens of hundreds of immigrants who arrived within the growth years left, most commonly to their nations of beginning or to different Eu nations. On the identical time, younger Spaniards emigrated looking for the alternatives that the disaster took clear of them.
This trend isn’t anecdotal. This can be a affirmation that immigration corresponds to actual financial cycles. When there’s paintings, folks come. When he does not, he leaves.
Restoration and the present catch 22 situation
Beginning in 2015, the Spanish economic system recovered. And with it, sure web immigration returned. Since then, the migration stability has been recording ever-increasing figures. In 2022-2023, Spain registered web immigrants between 500,000 and 600,000 folks in keeping with 12 months.
The political query this has raised is one this is being requested on the net: “Does the economy grow because immigrants come, or do immigrants come because the economy grows?” There’s a grain of reality in each statements, however the query is poorly worded.
Traditionally, immigration has been a result of financial alternative, no longer its direct motive. However in Spain’s present demographic context – one of the most lowest beginning charges in Europe, an growing old inhabitants, an inverted age pyramid – the arriving of immigrants has grow to be structurally essential.
Let’s provide an explanation for why.
When immigration turns into essential
Spain has a significant demographic drawback. The beginning fee is without doubt one of the lowest within the OECD. Every Spanish lady has a median of one.1 kids. To take care of a strong inhabitants, 2.1. With out immigration, Spain’s operating inhabitants – those that create wealth, pay taxes and improve social safety – would start to shrink in absolute phrases.
The effects are transparent. A smaller lively inhabitants approach fewer employees contributing to social safety to improve the pension machine of an growing old inhabitants. This implies much less home call for, much less intake, much less financial process. The commercial expansion of nations is immediately associated with the operating age inhabitants. And in Spain, with out sure web immigration, that inhabitants merely would possibly not exist.
Thus, whilst traditionally immigration was once a result of prosperity, as of late this can be a situation for its upkeep. The economic system continues to draw immigrants as it has alternatives to provide. However the ones immigrants are actually structurally essential for the ones alternatives to survive.
The actual indicator: when to fret
So again to the unique query, rephrased: Is immigration a driving force or a barometer of the economic system?
The solution is each. This can be a barometer as it reacts sensitively to financial cycles. It displays in six a long time of information: when the economic system works, folks come; When it stops, they disappear.
However it’s also a motive force as a result of, within the present context, the immigrant inhabitants is what makes Spanish financial expansion sustainable in the longer term. With out this substitute of the lively inhabitants, Spain’s demographic spiral can be inexorably worse.
The actual alarm isn’t that many immigrants are arriving in Spain: it’s that they forestall arriving. Sure, it could be worrisome if the stability of web migration stopped or lowered considerably. Now not as a result of immigration is a “problem” for Spain, however as a result of it could be evidence that Spain has ceased to be horny to employees, home or global. And that will be a symptom of an economic system in terminal decline.
Conclusion: a essential debate
Spain wishes a debate on immigration this is according to knowledge, no longer on ideals and stereotypes. The numbers display that immigration is a herbal result of financial cycles, no thriller. However in addition they display that during as of late’s Spain this immigration is a demographic and financial necessity.
So the true query will have to no longer be whether or not immigration reasons or is brought about by means of expansion. The query will have to be: how can we arrange and combine immigration in some way that advantages everybody? And ahead of that, how can we fortify social concord and equivalent alternatives in a rustic that wishes immigrants, however may be house to thousands and thousands of people that really feel left in the back of?
Those are the questions that the figures counsel that Spanish society will have to ask itself.
