3 rounds of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to influence President Donald Trump {that a} option to the 2 international locations’ nuclear deadlock lay in international relations, quite than army motion. A perceived loss of development within the ultimate of the ones oblique negotiations on Feb 26, 2026, used to be sufficient to advised Trump to green-light an enormous onslaught of missiles that has degraded Iran’s offensive features and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of other participants of Iran’s senior army management.
In reaction, Tehran has introduced moves around the Center East, concentrated on Israel in addition to Gulf states that host U.S. airbases. No less than 3 American citizens had been killed.
Whilst the size of the U.S., Israeli and Iranian moves has taken some observers through marvel, the failure of the talks that ended in them used to be all too predictable.
For international relations to achieve success, all sides want to agree at the problems matter to negotiation and likewise imagine that non violent solution is extra treasured than army engagement. This obviously used to be no longer the case within the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks of 2025 and 2026.
A demonstrator holds a portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Los Angeles on Feb. 28, 2026.
Qian Weizhong/VCG by means of Getty Photographs
As any individual who has researched nonproliferation and U.S. nationwide safety for 20 years and used to be fascinated with State Division nuclear international relations, I do know that even beneath extra favorable prerequisites, negotiations steadily fail. And the possibilities for good fortune within the Iran-U.S. talks have been at all times narrow. If truth be told, publicly mentioned pink strains through all sides have been incompatible with each and every different – which means negotiations have been at all times prone to fail.
Iran sought after the talks confined most effective to promises in regards to the civilian goal of its nuclear program, no longer its missile program, improve of regional proxy teams or human rights abuses. Necessarily it sought after a go back to 2015’s Joint Complete Plan of Motion, which halted Iran’s building of nuclear era and stockpiling of nuclear subject matter in alternate for lifting a couple of global financial sanctions put on Iran.
In the meantime, Trump insisted on limits to Iran’s ballistic missiles and the chopping of Tehran’s improve for regional militias. Those weren’t integrated within the 2015 settlement, with events in the end deciding {that a} nuclear deal used to be higher than the other of no deal in any respect.
False hope
Nonetheless, there were a narrow probability for a leap forward of overdue.
Whilst the positions of each the U.S. and Iranian governments had ossified since Would possibly 8, 2018 – the date when the primary Trump management withdrew the USA from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal – there were some contemporary motion through Iran, in step with former U.S. diplomats fascinated with negotiations all through the Obama and Biden administrations.
With U.S. army increase within the area, Iran seemed extra keen to barter inside the nuclear enviornment than sooner than. There have been believable answers to the problem of Iran’s enrichment of uranium features, together with keeping up a minimal home capability to expand clinical isotopes and a removing of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium vital to construct a nuclear bomb.
There used to be much less openness on different issues of rivalry. Particularly, there used to be no motion on ballistic missiles, which had at all times been a pink line. At the eve of the spherical of discussions held in Geneva on Feb. 17, Trump mentioned: “I think they want to make a deal.” Iran’s international minister, Abbas Araghchi, famous development over the “guiding principles” of the talks.
However a large number of this optimism seemed to have dissipated by the point the 2 facets held every other spherical of talks on Feb. 26. Whilst mediator Oman’s negotiators persevered to speak of development, the U.S. facet used to be noticeably silent. Reporting since has steered that Trump used to be displeased with the best way the talks had long gone, atmosphere the level for the Feb. 28 assault.
Army brinkmanship
The specter of army motion used to be, after all, a persevered backdrop to the talks.
The usAbraham Lincoln provider workforce used to be deployed close to Iranian waters in January as a sign of improve to the Iranian protesters. The usGerald R Ford provider workforce joined the accumulation sooner than the ultimate spherical of talks.
Trump warned Iran that “if they don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.”
The considering can have been that Iran, weakened through each the June 2025 U.S.-Israeli moves and reduced features of Tehran proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, used to be enjoying a vulnerable hand within the talks.
The plane provider USS Gerald R. Ford departs Souda Bay at the island of Crete on Feb. 26, 2026.
Costas Metaxakis/AFP by means of Getty Photographs
But Iran additionally signaled a willingness to interact in army motion. Within the run-up to the ultimate spherical of talks, Iran held army workouts and closed the Strait of Hormuz for a live-fire drill. Leaders in Tehran additionally declared that they wouldn’t restrain its reaction to every other assault. The sector is seeing that now, with a reaction that has observed Iran release missiles around the Center East and at rival Gulf international locations.
Optimism has fallen sooner than
Trump isn’t the primary president to fail to protected a nuclear deal, even if he’s the primary to reply to that failure with army motion.
The Biden management publicly pledged to toughen and renew the Obama-era nuclear deal in 2021. On the other hand, Iran had considerably greater its nuclear technical capacity all through the years that had handed because the Joint Complete Plan of Motion collapsed. That greater the trouble – simply to go back to the former deal would have required Iran to surrender the brand new technical capacity it had accomplished for no new advantages.
That window closed in 2022 after Iran got rid of all the World Atomic Power Company’s surveillance and tracking beneath the deal and began enriching uranium to near-weapons ranges and stockpiling enough quantities for a number of nuclear guns. The IAEA, the United Countries’ nuclear watchdog, maintains most effective commonplace safeguards that Iran had agreed to sooner than the course of action.
Optimism additionally existed for a little while in spring 2025 all through 5 rounds of oblique talks that preceded the USA bombing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in June as a part of a broader Israeli assault.
A extra risky Center East
After I labored in multilateral nuclear international relations for the U.S. State Division, we noticed talks fail in 2009 referring to North Korea’s nuclear guns program, after six years of on-and-off development. The result of that failure is a extra risky East Asia and renewed passion through South Korea in growing nuclear guns.
Sadly, the similar dynamic seems to be enjoying out within the Center East.
Army moves have already killed greater than 200 in Iran and around the area. A much broader battle within the Center East is an opportunity, and will have to the Iranian regime continue to exist, it’s going to decide to growing nuclear guns for the reason that the loss of them proved no deterrent to U.S. and Israeli army motion.
Talks don’t essentially want an finish level – within the form of a deal – for them to have goal. Beneath scenarios of greater army brinkmanship, talks will have helped the U.S. and Iran step again from the brink, construct agree with and possibly expand higher political family members – even though a real deal remained out of achieve.
As an alternative, Trump opted to head a unique direction.
This text contains sections firstly revealed through The Dialog U.S. on Feb. 17, 2026.
