Pictures of Nicolás Maduro handcuffed and escorted to a detention heart in Brooklyn will certainly make Havana’s political leaders uneasy.
“Cuba is going to be something we talk about eventually,” President Donald Trump stated hours after the operation to seize the Venezuelan president on Jan. 3, 2026. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s caution: “If I lived in Havana and was in the government, I would be concerned.”
As a historian of the US and Cuba, I consider that Washington’s family members with Havana have entered a brand new segment beneath the Trump management. Barack Obama’s “Cuban thaw” and Joe Biden’s much less restrictive sanctions are left at the back of. As an alternative, the Trump management has it sounds as if followed a coverage of regime alternate via most drive.
If this management has its approach, 2026 would be the ultimate 12 months of the communist regime in Cuba, and it intends to take action with out US army intervention.
“I don’t think we should (take) any action,” Trump stated on Jan. 4. And he added: “Cuba seems poised to fall.”
Cuban’s good friend with advantages
Trump could also be proper. The seize of Maduro supposed the efficient lack of Cuba’s closest best friend. Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chávez, used to be an avowed admirer of Cuban progressive chief Fidel Castro.
In a while after taking energy in 1999, the Chávez govt started supplying oil on favorable phrases to Cuba in change for docs and, ultimately, coaching for Venezuelan safety forces. It used to be no twist of fate that the 32 safety brokers killed whilst protecting Maduro from advancing US forces had been Cuban.
Maduro succeeded Chavez as president in 2013 and persevered the rustic’s toughen for Cuba. In 2022, a member of the Venezuelan opposition claimed that Caracas contributed $60 billion to the Cuban financial system between 2002 and 2022.
Cubans rally in toughen of Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro in Havana on January 3, 2026. Adalberto Roque/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Maduro’s largesse proved unsustainable. Within the early 2010s, Venezuela entered a major disaster brought about through financial mismanagement, over-reliance on oil and US sanctions.
Venezuela’s toughen for Cuba slowed to a trickle in 2016. Then again, Maduro’s govt persevered to secretly provide oil to Cuba, keeping off US sanctions, in amounts some distance beneath Cuban wishes.
Laborious instances in Cuba
Venezuela’s shortage and drive from the US imply Cubans are struggling a degree of deprivation no longer observed for the reason that nation’s “special period” of monetary disaster between 1991 and 1995, precipitated through the cave in of the Soviet Union and the tip of the bloc’s beneficiant subsidies.
As of 2020, Cuba’s GDP has declined through 11 %, whilst the price of the Cuban peso continues to say no.
Cubans now not have dependable electrical energy or get admission to to water. Mosquito-borne illnesses, as soon as uncommon, are actually well-liked for the reason that govt can not manage to pay for to spray insecticides.
To make issues worse, the well being machine supplies best probably the most elementary care, and hospitals have very little medication.
In the meantime, business and agricultural manufacturing declined dramatically, as did meals imports. And even though famine has no longer but befell, meals lack of confidence has greater, and maximum Cubans stay on restricted diets and skip foods. Crime has additionally change into not unusual at the prior to now protected streets of Cuba.
Cubans line up to shop for meals right through a blackout in Havana on December 3, 2025. Yamil Lage/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Since Maduro took energy, the USA management has defined insurance policies that seem to be aimed toward expanding financial drive on Cuba and bringing about regime alternate. As an example, the US has made it transparent that it is going to now not permit Venezuela to offer oil to Cuba.
It sounds as if, the federal government hopes that, with out oil, the Cuban govt will merely cave in. Or in all probability Trump hopes that the Cubans, as annoyed as they’re, will overthrow their communist masters with out US assist.
A regime with out the toughen of the folk
Finally, the management’s reasoning has a imaginable flaw: Cuban communists have survived such crises for greater than 60 years. Then again, there’s proof that because the Cuban financial system deteriorates, so does toughen for the regime.
As of 2020, a couple of million Cubans have left the rustic, most commonly for the US and Spanish-speaking nations. A Cuban colleague with get admission to to govt analysis just lately informed me the determine is nearer to 2 million.
And people who remained are now not glad both.
Cuba is protesting within the streets
In a 2024 public opinion ballot, an vast majority of Cubans expressed deep dissatisfaction with the Communist Birthday party of Cuba and the management of President Miguel Diaz-Canel.
Cubans additionally took their grievances to the streets. In July 2021, protests broke out throughout Cuba, not easy extra freedom and a greater way of life. The federal government temporarily imprisoned the protesters and sentenced them to lengthy jail phrases.
Then again, sporadic protests persevered, incessantly temporarily and with out caution, prompting harsh repression. Specifically, the San Isidro motion, shaped in 2018 to protest restrictions on creative expression, has sturdy toughen amongst younger Cubans.
Converting perspective against the US
As Cubans became in opposition to their govt, they become extra receptive to the US.
All over my first talk over with in 1996, Cubans blamed the USA embargo, in position for the reason that early Sixties, for the deprivations they suffered right through the “special period”. Then again, within the ultimate decade, I have heard Cubans – no less than the ones beneath 50 – angrier at their govt than at the USA embargo.
A tricycle used as a taxi is embellished with an American flag in Havana. Yamil Lage/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Make no mistake: Cubans need the USA embargo lifted. However they now not consider their govt’s try to blame Washington for all of Cuba’s financial and political issues.
A part of this alteration is because of the odd emigration of Cubans: the entire Cubans I do know have a circle of relatives member or good friend in the US. The Web has additionally helped: Cubans can now learn overseas information on their telephones.
Welcome liberators?
Since Maduro’s arrest, I have been texting pals in Cuba to gauge the temper. All however one of the vital six Cuban pals I used to be in a position to touch informed me they had been receptive to American intervention in Cuba, so long as it eradicated the regime that made their lives depressing.
A chum stated, “If the Yankees showed up today, most of us would probably welcome them as liberators.”
It is true that my pattern is small. However those reactions, coming from quite privileged Cubans operating in each the personal and public sectors, can’t be excellent information for what stays of the Castro regime.
