Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro may just quickly be convicted as a failed coup plotter.
Brazil’s Best Courtroom is anticipated to ship a verdict via Sept. 12 over fees that the previous president and key aides plotted to overturn Bolsonaro’s 2022 election defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro and others mentioned a scheme to assassinate Lula and incited a insurrection on Jan. 8, 2023, in hopes that Brazil’s army would intrude and go back Bolsonaro to energy.
Bolsonaro maintains his innocence. But when discovered responsible, he may just face a long jail sentence.
As political scientists who’ve documented the destiny of masses of coup leaders within the e book “Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups D’état,” now we have accumulated a dataset of each coup strive because the finish of Global Warfare II. Bolsonaro may just quickly sign up for the ranks of 1000’s of coup plotters who’ve been dropped at justice.
However now not all coup plotters are held answerable for their movements. And even if they’re – it doesn’t essentially mark the tip in their political ambitions.
Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro conflict with police outdoor the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.
Evaristo Sa/AFP by means of Getty Pictures
Coup and punishments
Plotting a coup is dangerous trade. A few of those that try to grasp or usurp energy unconstitutionally are killed right through their takeover bid, specifically when safety forces unswerving to the incumbent chief foil the assault. Christian Malanga, an exiled former military captain who led a violent try to grasp energy within the Democratic Republic of Congo, is one such instance. He was once killed within the resulting shootout in Might 2024.
However maximum leaders of failed coups live to tell the tale.
And even if they generally face punishment, the severity of penalties varies a great deal; it regularly will depend on whether or not the strive is a self-coup, which is an influence snatch via an incumbent chief, or an try to oust a sitting executive.
The most typical destiny of failed self-coup leaders in democracies is impeachment and removing from workplace, as took place to Indonesia’s Abdurrahman Wahid in July 2001, Ecuador’s Lucio Gutiérrez in April 2005, Peru’s Pedro Castillo in December 2022, and South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol in April 2025.
Some coup plotters and their co-conspirators are charged in a court docket and, if convicted, despatched to jail. Malanga’s American co-conspirators had been in the long run sentenced to lifestyles in jail in April 2025.
A equivalent destiny may just befall Bolsonaro. A conviction in his case may just imply 40 or extra years in a Brazilian jail for the 70-year-old.
Nonetheless, it might be worse – failed coupists are regularly punished outdoor of impartial courts, the place the penalty is regularly extra serious. Coup plotters had been summarily completed or sentenced to loss of life via an army tribunal or a “people’s court.” The longtime Zairean dictator Mobutu Sese Seko completed over a dozen junior officials and civilians after his executive exposed an alleged coup plot in 1978.
One fresh estimate suggests 40% of coup conspirators endure moderately mild punishment. Many coup backers are merely demoted or purged from the federal government with out going through trial or execution. An extremely well-liked transfer is to ship coup plotters into exile to deter their supporters from mobilizing towards the regime. Former Haitian president Dumarsais Estimé was once compelled into exile after his self-coup strive failed in Might 1950; he died within the U.S. a couple of years later.
Punishment doesn’t all the time finish risk
The issue going through governments is that failed putschists pose a lingering political risk. Ousted leaders regularly plot “counter-coups” to go back to energy. For instance, former president of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos, after being ousted within the 1986 Folks Energy motion, masterminded coup plots from exile, despite the fact that he by no means returned to energy.
Some be successful, equivalent to David Dacko, who returned from exile to snatch energy within the Central African Republic in 1979, however simplest with the assistance of French forces.
French paratroopers patrol the streets of Bangui, Central African Republic, on Sept. 26, 1979, after David Dacko seized energy.
Claude Juvenal/AFP by means of Getty Pictures
Even if convicted or exiled, coup plotters is also later freed. Some individuals of Brazil’s Congress have already offered a invoice that might grant Bolsonaro amnesty.
A couple of former failed coup leaders organize to come back to energy later. Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings led a failed coup in Might 1979 however went directly to grasp energy in next coups in June 1979 and 1981; Hugo Chavez was once convicted and jailed for main a failed coup in 1992 however ended up being elected president in Venezuela in 1998.
The danger of coupists going unpunished
Just one failed self-coup chief, as designated in our dataset, has controlled to retain workplace – from the place he labored, critics say, to effectively dismantle democracy: El Salvador’s strongman, Nayib Bukele. In February 2020, amid a standoff with the political opposition, Bukele threatened to dissolve the legislature, bringing with him armed squaddies to occupy the legislative meeting.
Regardless that Bukele quickly subsidized down, he confronted no criminal or political backlash. His birthday celebration gained a legislative supermajority in 2021, and he gained reelection in 2024. Bukele’s ruling birthday celebration not too long ago lifted presidential time period limits, permitting him to probably rule for lifestyles.
In the longer term, failed coup leaders who break out punishment are much more likely to make a political comeback.
When defeated on the polls, each Donald Trump and Bolsonaro attempted to overturn the reliable effects. Each tried to vary vote totals when they had misplaced and block an election winner from being inaugurated.
However for Trump there was once no censure or punishment, and he’s now again in energy, the place he has weakened the exams and balances that we and different political scientists see as a very powerful for the preservation of liberty and rising financial prosperity.
By contrast, a conviction for Bolsonaro would make it not going he may just practice the similar trail to political resurrection. Even supposing he’s ultimately pardoned, a responsible verdict makes him ineligible to compete once more for Brazil’s presidency.
