Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction on September 11, 2025, places the previous Brazilian president in a rogues’ gallery of failed coup plotters to be held to account for his or her tried energy snatch.
Brazil’s Best Courtroom discovered Bolsonaro accountable of being a part of an armed felony group and different counts with regards to a coup plot to overturn the ex-president’s 2022 election defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors had previous argued that Bolsonaro and others mentioned a scheme to assassinate Lula and incited a rebel on Jan. 8, 2023, in hopes that Brazil’s army would interfere and go back Bolsonaro to energy.
4 of the 5 justices at the panel voted to convict. Justice Cármen Lúcia, who used to be some of the majority, stated that the right-winger acted “with the purpose of eroding democracy and institutions.” sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in the back of bars, however is predicted to enchantment the decision.
As political scientists who’ve documented the destiny of loads of coup leaders within the e book “Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups D’état,” we’ve got accumulated a dataset of each coup strive because the finish of International Conflict II. Bolsonaro is now considered one of hundreds of coup plotters who’ve been dropped at justice.
No longer all coup plotters are held in control of their movements. Or even for the ones, like Bolsonaro, who’re – it doesn’t essentially mark the top in their political ambitions.
Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro conflict with police outdoor the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.
Evaristo Sa/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Coup and punishments
Plotting a coup is dangerous trade. A few of those that try to grasp or usurp energy unconstitutionally are killed all the way through their takeover bid, specifically when safety forces dependable to the incumbent chief foil the assault. Christian Malanga, an exiled former military captain who led a violent try to grasp energy within the Democratic Republic of Congo, is one such instance. He used to be killed within the resulting shootout in Might 2024.
However maximum leaders of failed coups live on.
And even if they generally face punishment, the severity of penalties varies a great deal; it regularly depends upon whether or not the strive is a self-coup, which is an influence snatch through an incumbent chief, or an try to oust a sitting executive.
The most typical destiny of failed self-coup leaders in democracies is impeachment and removing from administrative center, as took place to Indonesia’s Abdurrahman Wahid in July 2001, Ecuador’s Lucio Gutiérrez in April 2005, Peru’s Pedro Castillo in December 2022, and South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol in April 2025.
Some coup plotters and their co-conspirators are charged in a court docket and, if convicted, despatched to jail. Malanga’s American co-conspirators had been in the long run sentenced to lifestyles in jail in April 2025.
A equivalent destiny has now befallen Bolsonaro. His conviction signifies that until a success on enchantment, Bolsonaro may just finish his days in confinement.
Nonetheless, it might had been worse – failed coupmakers are regularly punished outdoor of unbiased courts, the place the penalty is regularly extra serious. Coup plotters had been summarily finished or sentenced to dying through an army tribunal or a “people’s court.” The longtime Zairean dictator Mobutu Sese Seko finished over a dozen junior officials and civilians after his executive exposed an alleged coup plot in 1978.
One fresh estimate suggests 40% of coup conspirators endure fairly mild punishment. Many coup backers are merely demoted or purged from the federal government with out going through trial or execution. A particularly well-liked transfer is to ship coup plotters into exile to deter their supporters from mobilizing towards the regime. Former Haitian president Dumarsais Estimé used to be pressured into exile after his self-coup strive failed in Might 1950; he died within the U.S. a couple of years later.
Punishment doesn’t at all times finish risk
The issue going through governments is that failed putschists pose a lingering political risk. Ousted leaders regularly plot “counter-coups” to go back to energy. As an example, former president of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos, after being ousted within the 1986 Other folks Energy motion, masterminded coup plots from exile, although he by no means returned to energy.
Some be triumphant, reminiscent of David Dacko, who returned from exile to snatch energy within the Central African Republic in 1979, however simplest with the assistance of French forces.
French paratroopers patrol the streets of Bangui, Central African Republic, on Sept. 26, 1979, after David Dacko seized energy.
Claude Juvenal/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Even if convicted or exiled, coup plotters is also later freed. Some participants of Brazil’s Congress had already, previous to the decision, offered a invoice that would grant Bolsonaro amnesty.
A couple of former failed coup leaders set up to return to energy later. Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings led a failed coup in Might 1979 however went directly to grasp energy in next coups in June 1979 and 1981; Hugo Chavez used to be convicted and jailed for main a failed coup in 1992 however ended up being elected president in Venezuela in 1998.
The danger of coup leaders going unpunished
Just one failed self-coup chief, as designated in our dataset, has controlled to retain administrative center – from the place he labored, critics say, to effectively dismantle democracy: El Salvador’s strongman, Nayib Bukele. In February 2020, amid a standoff with the political opposition, Bukele threatened to dissolve the Legislature, bringing with him armed infantrymen to occupy the legislative meeting.
Even though Bukele quickly subsidized down, he confronted no criminal or political backlash. His celebration received a legislative supermajority in 2021, and he received reelection in 2024. Bukele’s ruling celebration just lately lifted presidential time period limits, permitting him to probably rule for lifestyles.
In the longer term, failed coup leaders who get away punishment are much more likely to make a political comeback.
When defeated on the polls, each Donald Trump and Bolsonaro attempted to overturn the authentic effects. Each tried to change vote totals once they had misplaced and block an election winner from being inaugurated.
However for Trump there used to be no censure or punishment, and he’s now again in energy, the place he has weakened the exams and balances that we and different political scientists see as an important for the preservation of liberty and rising financial prosperity.
By contrast, a conviction for Bolsonaro approach it’s now not likely he’s going to observe the similar trail to political resurrection. Despite the fact that he’s ultimately pardoned, a accountable verdict makes him ineligible to compete once more for Brazil’s presidency.
That is an up to date model of an editorial that used to be first printed in The Dialog on Sept. 8, 2025.
