The ex-president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, may just quickly change into the primary Asian former head of state to be attempted at The Hague.
The populist flesh presser used to be arrested on Mar. 11, 2025, after the World Legal Courtroom issued a warrant in relation to his “war on drugs.”
Some 6,000-plus other folks have been killed all through the crackdown. However in spite of the debate surrounding his insurance policies and the top of his presidency in 2022, Duterte stays an influential determine.
The Dialog U.S. grew to become to Lisandro Claudio, knowledgeable on Philippine politics and historical past on the College of California, Berkeley, to give an explanation for how the arrest may just have an effect on home politics and whether or not this might imply the top of Duterte’s sway.
What do we all know concerning the arrest and costs?
The arrest warrant issued by means of the ICC states that Duterte is charged with crimes in opposition to humanity in relation to occasions that came about between Nov. 1, 2011, to Mar. 16, 2019. That is necessary because it covers a length no longer simply when Duterte used to be president but additionally when he used to be mayor of Davao Town – the richest town within the island of Mindanao.
Duterte went directly to function president from 2016 to 2022, however he pulled the rustic out of the Rome Statute, the treaty that arrange the ICC, in 2019. Nevertheless, the ICC says the alleged crimes fall inside their jurisdiction as they have been performed sooner than the Philippines ended its dating with the ICC
Duterte is claimed to have overseen the systemic use of homicide, torture and rape in opposition to civilians.
He’s accused of appearing because the de facto chief of the Davao Loss of life Squad, a gaggle that used to be liable for abstract executions and the homicide or disappearance of greater than 1,000 other folks in and across the town. However importantly, the prosecution may be of Duterte’s nationalization of the method of demise squads. On coming to energy, he included the “war on drugs” into the coverage of the nationwide police.
A airplane wearing former President Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague takes to the air from Manila, Philippines, on Mar. 11, 2025.
AP Picture/Aaron Favila
In line with the best way the ICC warrant used to be written and reporting within the Philippines, it sounds as if that former participants of the Davao Loss of life Squad and law enforcement officials could also be attesting for the prosecution together with, it’s concept, hitman-turned-whistleblower Edgar Matobato and ex-Davao Town police officer Arturo Lascañas.
What position did the federal government play within the arrest?
Duterte’s arrest and rendition, for need of a higher phrase, to the Netherlands seems to have taken position with the cooperation of the Philippine executive.
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the person who succeeded Duterte, held a press convention following the arrest wherein he defined that in spite of now not being a part of the Rome Treaty, the Philippines is dedicated to supporting the World Legal Police Group, or Interpol. And it used to be Interpol that requested Manila to put in force the warrant after receiving it from the ICC.
The indication from Marcos used to be that the Philippine executive had no selection however to conform to Interpol for 2 causes. First, it’s the anticipated conduct of a democratic country to conform to world norms, and 2d, Interpol has helped the Philippines arrest fugitives up to now – together with former mayor and suspected Chinese language undercover agent Alice Guo.
Briefly, Marcos is announcing it’s within the nationwide hobby to conform to the ICC arrest warrant.
Is it in President Marcos’ political pursuits, too?
The Philippines can’t dictate to the ICC when to factor a warrant, or to whom.
And it sounds as if ICC prosecutor Karim Khan asked the warrant on Feb. 10, so the timing wasn’t decided by means of Marcos.
However that isn’t to mention that it isn’t lucky timing.
There may be the most important midterm election in Would possibly, and Marcos is raring to make use of it to consolidate his energy amid an ongoing feud with Vice President Sara Duterte – the daughter of the now-arrested former president.
In 2022, Sara Duterte and Marcos ran on similar price tag for vp and president. However this coalition between two circle of relatives dynasties – Bongbong Marcos is the son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and nonetheless tough matriach of the circle of relatives, Imelda – broke down fairly briefly.
Preventing between Sara Duterte and Martin Romualdez, the speaker of the Area of Representatives and a cousin of President Marcos, strained the connection.
However past the character problems, there was a divergence in coverage between the Dutertes and Marcos. Significantly, beneath Marcos Jr., the Philippines has pivoted again to the U.S. by means of permitting The us troops again into the rustic and taking a extra competitive stance with regard to China within the South China Sea.
This manner has been challenged by means of the Duterte circle of relatives, which has been nearer to China. Within the first yr of the Marcos management, Rodrigo Duterte served as a type of envoy to Beijing, despite the fact that it changed into increasingly more transparent that this used to be extra of an unbiased dating between the previous president and Chinese language chief Xi Jinping.
So may just this be the top of Duterte’s affect?
This is no doubt what President Marcos could also be banking on.
The ICC prosecution of the daddy paired with a approaching impeachment of the daughter will neuter the Duterte extended family’s energy.
The rationale that is so necessary for Marcos is that Sara Duterte has made it transparent she desires to be the following president, and given the ill-feeling between the 2, there’s a fashionable assumption that if in energy she’s going to cross after quite a lot of participants of the Marcos circle of relatives.
With Duterte busy protecting his case in The Hague, he will not be able to center of attention his efforts on serving to his senator alternatives get elected within the midterms. It’s going to additionally, possibly, finish his bid to go back as mayor Davao Town – a place that might give him an impressive bully pulpit.
No person must underestimate the air of mystery of Rodrigo Duterte; he is sort of a Donald Trump determine in that method. Many critics don’t absolutely perceive the facility of his air of mystery, his humor and the heat that he presentations to supporters – but it surely propelled him to prime ranges of recognition whilst in energy.
And the general public don’t see that air of mystery in his 3 kids, together with present Vice President Sara Duterte. A part of that is because of to sexism – there may be a large number of sexism in Filipino politics, so persons are much more likely to fortify a brash-talking guy like Rodrigo Duterte, in comparison together with his daughter. And Sara Duterte has issues of her personal – significantly the impeachment fees in relation to alleged corruption whilst she used to be secretary of training.
May just this result in a extra polarized politics?
Your wager is as excellent as mine right here. Within the brief run, the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is obviously excellent for President Marcos. And the small scale of the pro-Duterte protests counsel no nice rebellion in opposition to the arrest.
However what occurs subsequent – and the way it’s reported – is the most important.
Filipinos love a political martyr. We noticed this when former President Joseph Estrada used to be arrested and prosecuted over stealing public cash in 2001 – his mughshot used to be followed by means of supporters across the nation. The similar may just occur to Duterte – it will cross each tactics.
