Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, has introduced a fierce verbal assault on Armenia, which he has referred to as a fascist state. “Fascism must be destroyed,” he mentioned in an interview on native TV networks on January 7. “Either the Armenian leadership will destroy it, or we will.”
This rhetoric is strongly harking back to baseless claims utilized by Vladimir Putin about Ukraine to justify Russia’s invasion. He has claimed that Ukraine will have to be “denazified”.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have a protracted historical past of war over Nagorno-Karabakh, a area inside Azerbaijan till not too long ago basically populated by means of Armenians. The primary struggle between them within the Nineteen Nineties resulted in the status quo of a self-proclaimed Armenian republic, which no nation recognised.
Then, after a 44-day struggle in 2020, Azerbaijan took keep an eye on over lots of the enclave. The remaining used to be conquered in September 2023, prompting Armenians residing there (greater than 100,000 other people) to escape to Armenia.
In the previous few months Aliyev accused Armenia of making ready a “war of revenge”. Since its devastating defeat in the second one Karabakh struggle in 2020, Armenia has taken steps to improve its defences. Amongst different issues, it has made important fingers purchases from France. This has additionally provoked Aliyev to criticise France and its president, Emmanuel Macron.
However, even if Armenia has been looking to scale back Azerbaijan’s army benefit thru reforms within the military and fingers purchases, the rustic remains to be militarily not so good as its neighbour. Any army disagreement is more likely to lead to an early defeat for Armenia.
The argument from Azerbaijan is obviously that if there’s war within the area, it is going to be a part of an Armenian “preparation for a war”. Baku means that subsequently the duty for any war would lie with Armenia and those that arm the rustic (particularly, France). It’s conceivable that this rhetoric is meant to legitimise some more or less army motion.
As a result of escalating rigidity up to now few years, Armenia invited the Ecu Union to watch the border between the international locations. This used to be to lend a hand cope with Azerbaijani accusations that Armenia used to be making ready for struggle, and to watch, and save you, shootings alongside the border.
Peter Hermes Furian/Shutterstock
Over the last two years Azerbaijan has denied those unarmed EU observers permission to function on its territory, in order that they had been most effective in a position to paintings from the Armenian aspect. It has additionally strongly condemned the EU for this challenge.
The EU displays had been in position since February 2023, and will have to be because of withdraw subsequent month. Armenia has prompt the EU displays proceed however Baku has made transparent it needs them got rid of.
So, why may Azerbaijan need to reignite tensions with Armenia? One level of competition between them is get right of entry to to the “Zangezur corridor”, a land connection between Azerbaijan and its self sustaining republic, Nakhichevan,.
Lengthy-running regional war
Azerbaijan has lengthy demanded get right of entry to to, and keep an eye on of, this direction. The herbal hall runs thru Armenia’s Syunik area (in Azerbaijani “Zangezur”, therefore the Zangezur hall). Armenia has declared its willingness to open up shipping connections during the area – together with between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan – however opposes a hall thru its territory that it does no longer keep an eye on.
The south Caucasus (the area together with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) has lengthy been a space that Putin sees as a part of his sphere of affect. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia attempted to stay the area rather calm, however in 2020 Putin allowed the struggle to proceed till Armenia used to be defeated, earlier than hanging power on Aliyev to forestall. 3 years later, Azerbaijan took what used to be left of Nagorno-Karabakh whilst Russian peacekeepers appeared on.
Armenian fear over what it sees as Russian bias against Azerbaijan has led Yerevan to more and more flip against the west. On January 14 2025, a “strategic partnership charter” used to be signed between Armenia and america, which incorporates an financial and defence partnership, however whether or not the brand new Trump management will need to construct on, and even forget about, that courting isn’t but transparent.
In what is regarded as a very powerful symbolic transfer Armenia may be lately negotiating with Russia over the removing of its Federal Safety Provider (FSB safety provider) guards alongside the Armenian border in an try to scale back reliance on Moscow for its safety. Armenian top minister Nikol Pashinyan mentioned in 2024 that the country would pull out of the Russian-led Collective Safety Treaty Group in every other transfer that indicators Armenia’s more and more fragile courting with Moscow.
Will there be a struggle?
The EU has in the meantime reinforced family members with Armenia.
Whilst Azerbaijan could have escaped global fallout over the assault on Nagorno-Karabakh within the autumn of 2020, and over the ethnic cleaning of the enclave’s Armenian inhabitants in 2023. But when a brand new struggle resulted in a large-scale assault on Armenia it could not going to be left out by means of the west.
In spite of the west’s minimum reactions to Azerbaijani incursions around the Armenian border in Might 2021 and September 2022, in 2025 there’s extra global focal point at the area and at the doable penalties of ignoring what’s happening round Russia’s borders.
Even if army intervention from the west is not going, the potential for sanctions towards Azerbaijan might be sufficient of an incentive for Aliyev to take a look at to take care of the peace.
