On this 3rd section in our collection on how the United Kingdom has modified up to now 25 years, we flip to demographics, immigration, social attitudes and LGBTQ+ lives.
Demographics
Athina Vlachantoni, professor of gerontology and social coverage, College of Southampton
Jane Falkingham, professor of demography and world social coverage, College of Southampton
Maria Evandrou, professor of gerontology, College of Southampton
The United Kingdom inhabitants grew in measurement from just below 59 million in 2000 to 69.5 million in 2025, and is now projected to succeed in 71 million through 2034. Distinction this with sharp inhabitants declines in japanese and southern Europe that brought about a Eu parliament solution in 2021 on reversing demographic developments in EU areas.
The United Kingdom’s inhabitants expansion displays fresh developments within the 3 drivers of inhabitants alternate – fertility, mortality and migration – that have implications for long run generations and the rustic as an entire.
The United Kingdom inhabitants is getting older
The 2001 UK census confirmed that round 16% of the inhabitants (9.5 million other people) had been 65 and over, whilst just below 2% or 1.1 million had been 85 and over. Via 2025 the Administrative center for Nationwide Statistics estimated that the over-65s and over-85s accounted for 20% and three% of the inhabitants respectively.
Extra other people residing longer is each a luck for the human race and a problem for policymakers and societies. A girl and guy elderly 65 nowadays are anticipated to survive reasonable for every other 23 and twenty years respectively, with essential penalties for the way lengthy pensions and different financial savings wish to closing.
How has the United Kingdom modified for the reason that get started of the century? From Blair to Burnham, from the dotcom technology to AI brokers, time has by no means stood nonetheless. On this six-part collection, a staff of a few 35 professionals take a look at the whole thing from defence spending to species populations to the upward thrust of populism to take a look at and make sense of the intervening years.
The Area of Lords Financial Affairs Committee present in 2025 that the United Kingdom is “strikingly unprepared for an ageing society”, on account of expanding prices and a shrinking tax base. By the way, regardless of ladies residing longer than males, a better share in their lives are anticipated to be spent ill.
The United Kingdom is changing into extra ethnically numerous
In 2001, 11.8% of the inhabitants used to be from minority ethnic communities, while through the 2021 census it used to be 18%. Even supposing white British other people nonetheless represent the most important a part of the inhabitants (over 74%), their share has diminished. There were sluggish will increase in other people from Asian ethnic communities (9.3%), white “other” (6.2%) and black teams (4%), reflecting patterns of each previous and more moderen migration.
Migrants give a contribution to the expansion of the inhabitants and – importantly – the labour marketplace, using financial expansion. Because the Windrush era ages, we’re seeing extra variety in our inhabitants throughout all age teams.
Households are getting smaller
Ladies are having fewer youngsters. The full fertility price stood at 1.7 youngsters in line with lady in 2000, and after a revival within the mid-2010s, reached 1.4 in 2024, the bottom since information started.
The common age of ladies in the beginning beginning in England stood at 31 in 2024 in comparison to 29 in 2000. That is because of a mixture of things, together with higher participation in upper training, behind schedule marriage and partnership formation, and more youthful generations’ want to ascertain a occupation, get at the assets ladder and succeed in monetary steadiness prior to beginning a circle of relatives.
New moms are nonetheless ageing.
Bernardo Emanuelle
The Answer Basis has warned that “the recent fertility decline appears to be driven, in part, by financial constraints facing young non-graduates, rather than a shift in what people actually want”.
The effects
On account of those 3 demographic shifts – the getting older inhabitants, higher ethnic variety and smaller households – the form of families is converting. Married {couples} made up 66% of households in 2025, in comparison to 70% in 2001. The share is reducing on account of different circle of relatives sorts changing into extra prevalent, together with lone-parent, cohabiting couple and civil-partner couple households.
The share of single-person families has remained quite solid over the past 25 years (round 30% of all families). On the other hand, the composition has modified, with the share of 65 and overs on this class expanding from about 46% in 2001 to just about 50% nowadays.
Demographic adjustments are happening concurrently, and in part on account of, the wider socioeconomic adjustments that have led to bigger inequalities for other people around the lifestyles route. As an example, analysis through the Answer Basis has proven that the ground part of the source of revenue distribution is older and extra ethnically blended than 30 years in the past, and much more likely to be childless and unmarried than prior to.
Immigration
Rob McNeil, deputy director, Migration Observatory, College of Oxford
There are much more foreign-born other people in the United Kingdom in 2026 than there have been in 2001. The precise quantity is unsure as a result of the United Kingdom’s migration information has been sketchy for the reason that 2021 census, with some quite wild fluctuations all over this era, as you’ll see within the graph beneath. However in 2001 the United Kingdom’s overall foreign-born inhabitants used to be 4.9 million, and through 2024 it used to be estimated at 13.1 million.
UK web migration and immigration (1991-present)
The ONS started the use of a brand new approach to rely the figures in 2012. Estimates the use of each the outdated and new strategies include considerable uncertainty.
ONS, CC BY-SA
When Tony Blair’s New Labour had stormed to energy in 1997, web migration used to be 48,000. A couple of years previous, it had even been damaging. Internet migration used to be a distinct segment thought in the ones days, because the have an effect on of migration on inhabitants expansion had handiest been regarded as a minor factor in comparison to the way it affected tradition or the labour marketplace.
Via 2001 web migration had greater than tripled to round 180,000. This used to be a pivotal second when it began to get political traction, with arguments for numerical limits beginning to be mentioned quite prominently in coverage circles.
Ranges rose much more after the growth of the EU in 2004. They dipped just a little after the 2008 monetary disaster, however then rose sharply from 2012-16 regardless of insurance policies presented in 2011 through David Cameron’s coalition govt to take a look at to succeed in a “net migration target” of underneath 100,000. It peaked at greater than 330,000 in 2015-16, with a lot of the inflow from new EU member states. Issues about controlling the numbers of other people strolling back from those international locations contributed considerably to the United Kingdom’s determination to go away the EU.
But migration insurance policies since Brexit haven’t resulted in decrease web migration. After the pandemic, the Boris Johnson govt liberalised migration coverage, which despatched web migration rocketing to a brand new top of over 900,000 in 2023. The numbers had been decreased sharply after the governments of Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer undid the ones liberalisations. The Might 2026 estimates position web migration at 171,000, virtually the similar degree as 2001.
Asylum seekers
In 2001 the Labour govt used to be coping with a spike in asylum packages – and a media backlash in opposition to the United Kingdom being a perceived “soft touch” on this house – through enforcing quite a lot of measures to deter claimants. The measures incorporated fighting asylum seekers from operating, proscribing get entry to to welfare, and “dispersal accommodation” that housed other people round the United Kingdom to take drive off London and the south-east.
In 2026 the United Kingdom is as soon as once more going through a spike in asylum packages, and the Labour govt is introducing a collection of latest insurance policies designed to discourage asylum seekers from travelling to the United Kingdom or claiming asylum.
Asylum packages (1979-2025)
This can be a Migration Observatory research of House Administrative center stats. Sure preliminary selections imply grants of asylum or different permission to stick. If a hit appeals had been incorporated, the selection of sure selections could be upper.
Migration Observatory/House Administrative center, CC BY-SA
As a part of that problem, refugees looking to get to the United Kingdom from France has remained a big factor. In the summertime of 2001 refugees had been filmed leaping directly to Eurostar trains close to the channel tunnel front within the Sangatte house now not a ways from Calais, prompting outrage from media and coverage commentators.
Sangatte used to be then the web site of a refugee camp which had change into a specific bone of diplomatic competition. It used to be frequently framed through the British as a ploy through France to dump accountability for asylum seekers to the United Kingdom. They claimed the French government did little to forestall citizens looking to break out to the United Kingdom in the course of the tunnel, now not in contrast to nowadays’s UK/France blame video games on channel migrants.
The short repair used to be a deal between the 2 international locations to near the camp in 2002, however this resulted in the emergence of a migrant shanty-town within the Calais house dubbed “the jungle”. Now, refugees tried to stow away within the backs of lorries or different cars crossing to the United Kingdom in the course of the port.
Small boat crossings (2018-25)
House Administrative center, CC BY-SA
A large funding in safety on the port made those lorry crossings an increasing number of tough, so in overdue 2018 a lot of asylum seekers attempted a distinct tactic, travelling to the United Kingdom in small boats. Repeated efforts through the government have since failed to forestall those crossings, and numbers have ballooned. They peaked at 45,800 in 2022, however had been nonetheless 41,000 in 2025. Figures for 2026 lately glance a little decrease, although it’s now not conceivable to appropriately are expecting what the overall will probably be. Maximum of those that effectively make the crossing declare asylum once they arrive in the United Kingdom.
Small boat migrants have change into an enormous political factor in recent times.
Yann Avril
The endurance of the United Kingdom’s migration problems over the past quarter of a century demonstrates that positive issues aren’t simple to mend and that some sorts of migration are more straightforward to cut back than others. The United Kingdom is birthday celebration to world treaties that require it to give protection to asylum seekers. But those individuals are pricey for the state to procedure and enhance, so the federal government would like fewer (or none) and makes efforts to forestall them getting right here.
However after 1 / 4 of a century of spending, deterrence efforts and coverage adjustments, little has in reality shifted excluding the ways utilized by asylum seekers to go into the United Kingdom. Then again, Brexit and the liberalisations underneath Johnson – and the discounts since 2024 – display how govt coverage could make a distinction to web migration. But when studying immigration tales once in a while appears like Groundhog Day, now you realize why.
Social attitudes
Michael Skey, senior lecturer in verbal exchange and media research, Loughborough College
Immigration has risen to the highest of political and media agendas over the past 25 years. It has underpinned probably the most maximum momentous shifts the rustic has observed, maximum particularly Brexit after which the next reshaping of the political panorama in favour of the populist correct.
Polling information presentations that issues about immigration have a tendency to upward thrust and fall according to positive problems – nationwide elections, EU growth, Brexit. But additionally noteworthy is the converting nature of migration as a perceived drawback and the identification of those that articulate such fears.
Twenty-five years in the past, fears about migration had been formed through neo-Powellite fears concerning the “swamping” of (white) British tradition. However the phrases of the talk had been modified quite through EU growth, as migrants from japanese Europe were given classified as a unique danger for taking jobs, undercutting wages and converting the panorama of native cities.
Put up Brexit, the “small boats” phenomenon has change into an enormous speaking level. Fuelled through the right-wing press and social media networks, it a ways outweighs the true numbers of other people coming into the rustic on this method, which is beneath 50,000 a yr.
Relating to who’s curious about immigration, the topic has lengthy been a key worry for individuals who are older, much less trained, much more likely to spot as English, and – in lots of circumstances – are living in spaces with quite little revel in of immigration.
Anti-immigration campaigners in Margate, Kent.
Justin Leighton
The populist correct – first Ukip and extra not too long ago Reform and Repair – has effectively leveraged the fears of this staff. However there may be rising proof that migration is considered as a priority through different constituencies inside of Britain, together with ethnic minorities born and taken up within the nation.
This used to be demonstrated through enhance for Brexit amongst some south Asian teams specifically. Apparently, from the mid-2010s onwards, pollsters began treating race and immigration as separate classes: up to now if a respondent mentioned they had been curious about borders it used to be assumed in addition they had issues about Britain’s racial composition, while now those are tracked as two separate problems.
The liberalism paradox
Similarly attention-grabbing is the level to which those debates have taken position in opposition to a backdrop during which British other people have change into extra tolerant and extra liberal over the past 25 years in the whole thing from LGBTQ other people to gender roles.
As information from the Nationwide Centre for Social Analysis presentations, there used to be little alternate in attitudes all over the Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties. However then, in step with the centre:
Nearly yearly since 2011 has witnessed a swing against a extra liberal outlook, such that, in our most up-to-date survey, the dimensions rating stands at 56, 15 issues other from simply over a decade in the past.
Some have argued that rising numbers coming into upper training might account for this higher liberalism, others that converting circle of relatives and paintings members of the family have had a profound have an effect on. The solution may be a mixture, however necessarily what we’ve is a extra liberal nation this is an increasing number of exercised through the problems of migration and belonging. How will we make sense of this?
There’s a notable divide between main towns and smaller cities, semi-rural and rural spaces, with the towns being a lot more comfortable about migration and inhabitants variety on the whole.
St George celebrates slaying the dragon in Newport, Shropshire.
David Bagnall (1)
However even out of doors towns, the attitudes won’t all the time be what they appear. In lots of circumstances, migration turns out to have change into some way for an entire vary of other people to articulate their anger at adjustments inside of native spaces which might be in large part the end result of wider structural tendencies. Specifically, the savage cuts to public products and services within the so-called technology of austerity.
Migrants have, at one time or every other, been observed as accountable for a stagnating jobs marketplace, rising health center ready lists, loss of reasonably priced housing, collapsing social products and services, crumbling faculties and quite a lot of different issues. In different phrases, migration – and the spectre of the immigrant coming to take “our” properties, jobs and public areas – is getting used to supply some simple solutions to very tough questions.
Rory Fitzgerald, director of the Eu Social Survey, Town St George’s, College of London
There’s a common belief that Brexit and extending enhance for anti-immigration political events is because of emerging intolerance. However in our research of knowledge accrued through the biennial Eu Social Survey (ESS) over 21 years, we discover attitudes against immigration have change into considerably extra sure over the years.
We’ve requested 3 questions on immigration in each spherical of our survey: whether or not immigrants make the United Kingdom a worse or higher position to are living, if the cultural lifestyles is undermined or enriched through immigrants; and whether or not immigration is unhealthy or excellent for the financial system. Those questions are all requested on a scale from 0 to ten, with 10 indicating probably the most sure.
In the United Kingdom, 52.7% of respondents had been probably the most sure about immigration (answering 7-10) in the newest 2023-24 survey. This used to be 2nd very best after Eire, which scored 52.9%, of the 18 international locations who took section in each the 2002-03 and 2023-24 surveys. In 2002-03 handiest 20% of Britons had been as sure about immigration, in comparison to 31.8% in Eire.
There’s a an identical trend for the questions at the impact of immigrants at the financial system and cultural lifestyles in the UK. At the cultural lifestyles between 2002-03 to 2023-24, the imply rating has risen from 5.2 to six.5, and from 4.4 to six.4 in terms of the financial system.
LGBTQ and circle of relatives attitudes
Attitudes against homosexuality have change into considerably extra sure from the UK over the 21 years the place information is to be had. One query we requested within the first and newest spherical of the survey used to be whether or not respondents believe the remark that gays and lesbians are loose to are living their lifestyles as they need. This used to be responded on a five-point scale: agree strongly; agree; neither agree nor disagree; disagree; and disagree strongly.
If we believe the proportion of the ones settling on strongly agree or agree, we discover that tolerance has risen in the UK from 76.0% in 2002-03 to 90.2% in 2023-24 (an identical patterns can once more be discovered somewhere else).
Our information additionally discovered a softening against non-traditional circle of relatives behaviours, as detailed right here. This derives from taking a look at circle of relatives values extensive within the 2006-07 and 2018-19 surveys. Those gauged attitudes against opting for by no means to have youngsters; residing with a associate with out being married; having a kid with a cohabiting associate whilst now not married; having a full-time process with youngsters elderly underneath 3; and getting divorced with youngsters elderly underneath 12.
Circle of relatives perspectives have modified markedly.
Charles Stirling
In all 5 spaces, damaging attitudes in the United Kingdom dropped over this 12-year length, whilst sure attitudes higher. There have been nonetheless a “gendered double standard”, specifically in attitudes against full-time employment with a tender kid and divorce, the place ladies confronted larger disapproval than males. On the other hand, disapproval fell for all spaces over the years.
Our information on expanding tolerance in the United Kingdom is supported additional on this article. It comprises information appearing extra sure attitudes to non-traditional circle of relatives values, sexual relationships and abortion, in comparison to information accrued way back to 1984 in some circumstances.
The only house the place prejudice has risen between 2016-22 is against people who find themselves transgender. This, most likely, is one thing the ESS must duvet in long run. But whilst regular media makes a speciality of the divides between us, it’s price remembering that the knowledge virtually solely and persistently presentations attitudes are changing into extra accepting over the years.
LGBTQ+ lives
Carrie Paechter, professor emerita, youth, adolescence and circle of relatives lifestyles, Nottingham Trent College
One of the crucial earliest adjustments to the lives and public perceptions of LGBTQ+ other people over the past 25 years used to be the repeal of Phase 28 of the Native Executive Act 1988. The act’s repeal in Scotland in 2000 and in 2003 in England and Wales supposed faculties not felt forbidden to enhance younger LGBTQ+ younger other people or to speak about LGBTQ+ parented households – albeit there have been nonetheless faculties openly conforming with the act 15 years later.
The repeal of phase 28 may also be observed as ushering in a sequence of adjustments that considerably progressed the inclusion of LGBTQ+ other people in civil society. The Gender Reputation Act 2004 supposed trans other people’s skilled gender may well be legally recognised within the type of a gender popularity certificates. The method to procure one is lengthy, sophisticated and dear, on the other hand.
The Equality Act 2010 protects folks and teams from discrimination throughout society in line with 9 “protected characteristics”, together with gender reassignment and sexual orientation. It features a “public sector equality duty” which calls for public our bodies reminiscent of faculties, hospitals and native councils actively to believe how their insurance policies, products and services and selections have an effect on other people with secure traits.
Homosexual marriage has been a vital alternate for the reason that flip of the century.
HOLDING NOT FOR SALE
Homosexual, lesbian and bisexual {couples} have additionally been accredited to go into civil partnerships since 2004, and to marry since 2013 (2020 in Northern Eire). Unmarried-sex {couples} have had the proper to undertake in England and Wales since 2002, in Scotland since 2009 and in Northern Eire since 2013. It’s transparent, due to this fact, that, over the last 25 years, LGBTQ+ other people loved a protracted length of bettering and extending inclusion into civil society.
The demanding situations
Those adjustments, on the other hand, don’t practice similarly to all teams throughout the LGBTQ+ spectrum. They most commonly incorporate the idea that individuals are (cis or trans) women and men, and make little allowance for queer and non-binary identities. As an example, non-binary other people can’t marry as non-binary, as a result of marriages should be registered both as same-sex or as opposite-sex.
My analysis into non-binary younger other people’s revel in in faculties additionally discovered that loo provision used to be problematic, with some leaving the premises to search out appropriate amenities and others protecting on till they were given house. There may be little popularity of polyamorous relationships inside of both law or wider society, with polyamorous parenting specifically disregarded in class intercourse and dating insurance policies.
The placement for trans other people is much more precarious, following a UK Ideally suited Courtroom ruling in 2025 that “sex” within the Equality Act must be taken to check with “biological sex”. The brand new draft code of apply to mirror this has introduced fears that trans other people will lose get entry to to things like bathroom provision and home abuse enhance.
Trans other people had been a few of the losers throughout the LGBTQ+ neighborhood.
Roger Cracknell 01/Vintage
In the meantime, puberty blocking off drugs can not be prescribed to underneath 18s, forcing them to go through puberty against their skilled gender. Reform and the Conservatives are actually respectively threatening to additionally rescind all or a part of the Equality Act, must they get into energy.
So whilst the closing 25 years have most commonly observed higher freedom acceptance and inclusion for plenty of LGBTQ+ other people, those advantages will have come at a worth for individuals who don’t have compatibility in so simply, exacerbating their marginalisation.
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