How a lot do energy outages charge because of warmth waves? Even though this determine stays absent from legitimate information, power researcher Jean-Baptiste Vaujour has nonetheless begun to estimate this charge for the closing excessive warmth wave, aggregating the quite a lot of to be had figures. It presentations us, thru this workout, how doomed our machine appears to be to struggling fairly than predicting if we do not imagine this charge.
On 23 June 2026, at round 9pm, an explosion at Scuyvidan electric substation close to Kimper knocked out energy to as much as 120,000 properties in south-west Finisterre. The prefecture attributes the incident to excessive warmth. France then skilled a warmth wave of outstanding severity: June 25 would turn out to be the freshest day recorded nationally since 1947.
Those discounts have direct and diffuse affects on public well being: turning off air conditioners and ventilators, but additionally respiration machines at house and all clinical gadgets basically, as an example. Their penalties give a contribution to the chance of warmth wave episodes.
The image is putting, but it surely additionally raises a little-addressed query: What’s the charge to the group of such episodes and, in flip, is it definitely worth the funding to offer protection to in opposition to them?
Equipped by way of writer One episode, one order of magnitude
Throughout the warmth top, the electrical energy grid is beneath a large number of drive. Its quite a lot of parts upward push to excessive temperatures, which can result in breakdowns, burning and even explosion of the transformer. The transit capability of the machine is additional restricted, the recent cable dissipates warmth much less neatly, and its resistance additionally will increase.
Within the duration from June 19 to 27, 2026, a census of the regional press used to be performed (Los angeles Voik du Nord, Ouest-France, Le Telegramme, Sud Ouest, Los angeles Depeche, Le Progres, Le Dauphine Liberation, Los angeles Provence, Le Parisien, Le Monde, France, Actress and Press particularly from England and Bleu). and the Electrical energy Transmission Community (RTE) makes it imaginable to spot about thirty huge localized outages, for a complete of about 335,000 properties with out electrical energy throughout the incidents, and virtually 50,000 on the top on the similar time, on June 25, when Enedis activated its Fast Electrical energy Intervention (REFI). Those figures are a low estimate: handiest high-profile incidents are recorded, and quick or extremely localized outages don’t seem to be counted.
Equipped by way of the writer
How a lot is that this in euros? Probably the most direct amount is undistributed power, which will also be estimated at round 2 gigawatt hours (GWh) for the duration regarded as, in keeping with standard intake profiles, outage period and selection of affected families.
Valued at the cost of undistributed power (33,000 euros in step with megawatt hour (MWh), decree of August 5, 2022, at the proposal of the Power Regulatory Fee, CRE and RTE), estimates the price of this episode at round 66 million euros; with a extra conservative speculation (€20,000/MWh, illustrative price of the ministry), the variety drops to €40 million. That can imply the central benchmark of round 60 million euros.
However this quantity handiest covers undelivered electrical energy. It leaves apart the mobilization and upkeep of Enedis, the oblique financial losses of businesses and families, and above the entire diffuse cuts no longer discussed on this level. The true charge is subsequently considerably upper.
Equipped by way of the writer a number of occasions a 12 months
Due to this fact, it could be a mistake to learn those 60 million euros as an remoted twist of fate. Since 2000, a warmth wave has hit France virtually yearly, and regularly a number of occasions: two episodes in 2025, 3 in 2022, in line with Meteo-France. The selection of heatwave days doubled between 2006–2015 and 2016–2025, and the baseline adaptation trajectory predicts a fivefold building up in such days by way of 2050.
If we imagine two primary episodes in step with 12 months, as a contemporary development, the visual prices of cuts on my own already succeed in round 120 million euros in step with 12 months. If that is translated into the associated fee within the invoices, it could be similar to an building up of roughly 3 euros in step with buyer in step with 12 months. This can be a ordinary glide, no longer a phenomenal match. And this glide will increase with local weather warming.
Submerged a part of the iceberg
Underneath the skin, diffuse charge accumulates right through the 12 months: not unusual, quick, and scattered outages, which Criterion B summarizes. This indicator measures the common annual period of outages in step with low-voltage client monitored by way of CRE. To these days, it is regarded as the benchmark for measuring community high quality.
In 2025, the nationwide moderate might be about 62 mins in step with consumer in step with 12 months, apart from remarkable occasions (Enedis). This indicator aggregates outages in particular associated with works and incidents, with out figuring out whether or not they’re brought about by way of heavy snowstorm or a warmth wave.
A report warmth wave like the only in June 2026 falls exactly into the class of “exceptional” and subsequently does no longer fall beneath criterion B. The legitimate high quality indicator will subsequently see virtually not anything from the episode, which is nonetheless large. Remarkable shocks are counted one by one (“exceptional” criterion B, in comparison to criterion B apart from remarkable occasions, referred to as “HIKS”). The 2 measurements resolution other questions, one concerning the day-to-day lifetime of the community, the opposite about shocks.
The sensible result is that no public determine aggregates the entire results of world warming. It stays torn between the sticking out phase, tracked in an aggregated method a 12 months later, and the submerged phase, diffuse and buried within the aggregates.
Equipped by way of writer Bear or Keep away from?
Now let’s evaluate this social charge with what it could charge to scale back the danger. Enedis has a building plan of 96 billion euros for the duration 2022-2040, of which about 25%, or 1.2 to one.3 billion euros in step with 12 months, is devoted to local weather resilience, in line with information from Enedis and the Senate. The lever this is maximum immediately associated with the warmth wave is the underground community: the alternative of impregnated paper cables, which fail when the bottom temperature exceeds 70 to 80°C, represents greater than 5 billion euros by way of 2040. To this are added the consolidation of the overhead community (about 9.4 billion euros) and the strengthening of transformers (greater than 2 billion euros).
The lesson lies in evaluating orders of magnitude. The ordinary annual charge of visual cuts, within the order of 100 million euros, is now not marginal in comparison to the once a year funding in adaptation, which quantities to round 1.2 to one.3 billion euros. If we upload the sunk phase and the oblique prices no longer quantified right here, the funding in resilience ceases to look disproportionate to the hurt it seeks to steer clear of. The vintage trade-off between spending now and struggling later is rebalancing.
Why is that this arbitration tricky? As a result of the ones two ideas would not have the similar visibility. The ensuing prices are diffuse, they’re borne by way of families and the group, most commonly out of account. The regulatory repayment for interruptions confirms this: 2 euros in step with kilovolt-ampere (kVA) in a duration of 5 hours, handiest after 5 consecutive hours, restricted to 400 euros and apart from subject material injury (CRE, assessment 2021-13). It handiest covers a part of the loss. Against this, funding intake is targeted, visual and financed in the course of the tariff for the usage of the community (TURPE), which is charged immediately to the shopper’s accounts as much as a couple of 3rd of the general value of electrical energy. Due to this fact, it’s tricky to speculate in opposition to a price that we can not measure.
Some clues at the back of the numbers
This comparability does no longer declare to supply a cost-benefit ratio, which is not possible in keeping with the to be had information. She explains the instinct: so long as each and every warmth wave is handled as a calamity, making an investment in resilience turns out tricky; but if we learn it as a ordinary and extending annual fee, to which is added a perpetual subtle charge, the similar funding adjustments standing.
Going ahead, it could be helpful to redo the Criterion B calculation and make it publicly to be had, to obviously determine what constitutes excessive local weather hazards (catastrophic affects) and what constitutes a basic alternate in local weather stipulations (power and diffuse affects).
This is able to additionally assist to raised tell native government, house owners of distribution networks, concerning the vulnerability in their property, in addition to paintings with Enedis to prioritize paintings and native adaptation measures, in line with the selection of shoppers and the criticality of continuity of provide.
At the back of those figures are the sector groups of Enedis who’re mobilized in in particular tricky, even unhealthy stipulations, and who’ve to hold out pressing upkeep to be able to repair electrical energy. Along with purely financial problems, there are, each at Enedis and amongst many cut-off shoppers, critical problems with public well being, protection and resilience, which can’t be lowered to a purely financial means.
