The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, 2026, activate the method of settling on a brand new excellent chief. It is just the second one such transition within the Islamic Republic’s 47-year historical past and the primary for the reason that unwell Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini transferred energy to Khamenei in June 1989.
As stipulated in Article 111 of the Iranian Charter, a three-person Intervening time Management Council used to be created on March 1, 2026. It is composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Leader Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who could also be a candidate for excellent chief.
The council has quickly assumed the tasks of the excellent chief till a brand new one is appointed by way of the Meeting of Professionals – an elected frame of 88 clerics. The meeting is predicted to hastily elect the following excellent chief, particularly with Iran being in a state of battle.
Individuals of Iran’s Meeting of Professionals attend a consultation of the meeting in Tehran on Sept. 4, 2007.
AP Photograph/Vahid Salemi
Assuming it may be performed, a swift succession is supposed to sign to home dissidents and exterior enemies alike that the regime – or ruling machine, nezam – stays in position. Throughout the meeting’s first assembly to make a choice a brand new excellent chief on March 3, Israel bombed its construction within the town of Qom. The construction used to be evacuated ahead of the strike, and no casualties have been reported.
Some media experiences have portrayed Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as a most sensible contender, despite the fact that he lacks the standing of a senior cleric. Even though his is only one of quite a few names that has been talked of as a possible successor.
Israel’s protection minister, Israel Katz, stated that Israel would kill any successor to Khamenei this is decided on. Nonetheless, the Meeting of Professionals seems made up our minds to hold out its constitutional responsibility and appoint a brand new excellent chief.
As a student of Iranian politics, I argue that the succession procedure, regardless of its result, hasn’t ever been loose or clear.
The historical past of succession
The Iranian excellent chief serves for lifestyles and is the best spiritual and political authority within the Islamic Republic.
He’s the commander in leader of the defense force and oversees different key establishments, such because the judicial department and state media.
He additionally supervises the Father or mother Council, which has the facility to vet electoral applicants and veto parliamentary regulation.
On this capability, the excellent chief has the general say on international coverage and other spaces of home coverage.
The primary chief of the Islamic Republic – Khomeini – dominated between 1979 and 1989. Along with being a innovative and charismatic determine, Khomeini used to be a grand ayatollah and a “source of emulation,” or marja’ al-taqlid.
A grand ayatollah and supply of emulation is amongst a make a selection few of the highest-ranking clerics. He is thought of as a “sign of God” in Twelver Shiism, the biggest department of Shiism and the state faith of Iran. A grand ayatollah and supply of emulation has the authority to make felony selections for his lay fans and for lower-ranking clerics in Iran and the broader Shiite international.
There are a number of dozen grand ayatollahs and resources of emulation on the planet. Maximum of them live and run seminaries within the holy towns of Qom in Iran and Najaf in Iraq. Shiites can make a selection which one they wish to observe as a senior determine of the religion, making the establishment decentralized.
The electoral facade
The individuals of the Meeting of Professionals serve eight-year phrases and are approved to elect, supervise and, if important, push aside the excellent chief. Article 111 of the Iranian Charter grants the meeting the authority to take away the excellent chief if he’s deemed incapable or unqualified politically and religiously. On the other hand, it’s not going to take action for the reason that its individuals are first vetted by way of the Father or mother Council ahead of being elected by way of a well-liked vote of Iranian women and men ages 18 and older.
It must be famous that the individuals of the Father or mother Council are appointed by way of the excellent chief and the manager justice, or head of the judiciary, who could also be appointed by way of the excellent chief.
Due to this fact, in the course of the council, the excellent chief approves the applicants. They’re probably elected to a frame that oversees him, making the method a ways from loose and truthful.
Within the remaining election for the Meeting of Professionals in March 2024, which had a traditionally low voter turnout of about 40%, the Father or mother Council disqualified many applicants.
This used to be specifically the case with moderates and reformists, who tended to oppose the excellent chief on more than a few problems. Because of this, the meeting has now not been recognized to significantly supervise or problem the excellent chief, and its court cases have remained strictly confidential or closed to the general public.
The 1989 succession
As Khomeini approached the tip of his lifestyles in 1989, the charter used to be amended in order that a lower-ranking cleric like Khamenei may just suppose the placement.
The chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaks at Friday prayers in Tehran on Oct. 30, 1998. Beside him is an image of his predecessor, Khomeini.
AP Photograph/Mohammad Sayyad
As a seminary pupil of Khomeini who used to be extra fascinated by politics than faith, Khamenei ranked beneath an ayatollah. Inside the Shiite clerical hierarchy, and prefer different Islamic students who studied underneath an ayatollah, he earned the identify Hojjat al-Eslam, or “proof of Islam.” He possessed the foundational wisdom of Islam with out the complex and impartial reasoning – ijtihad – required for an ayatollah.
After being appointed to be successful Khomeini, Khamenei’s rank used to be increased in a single day to a grand ayatollah. The cause of the appointment used to be that Khamenei used to be an established loyalist and regime insider, despite the fact that he lacked the charismatic and spiritual authority of Khomeini.
Till 1989, Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri – a distinguished theologian and innovative chief – used to be anticipated to take over because the excellent chief. That yr, alternatively, he used to be in the end handed over by way of Khomeini and detained by way of the Innovative Guard.
Montazeri succumbed to this destiny as a result of he had puzzled Khamenei’s {qualifications} as excellent chief and condemned the regime for its repression, particularly the execution of 1000’s of political prisoners in 1988 by way of a committee of 4 prosecutors. After proceeding to criticize Khamenei in 1997, Montazeri used to be positioned underneath space arrest underneath the pretext of shielding him from hard-liners. In 2003 he used to be launched by way of the reformist president Mohammad Khatami, who had won power from parliamentarians to take action.
The placement with succession as of late
For years, rumors circulated that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the lately slain excellent chief, may well be named the following one. On the other hand, the sort of situation gave the impression not going all the way through the life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who brazenly antagonistic it.
He did as a way to steer clear of antagonizing portions of the political and spiritual established order that categorically reject hereditary or dynastic succession. In any case, the concept that is thought of as antithetical or anathema to the Iranian Revolution, which deposed the monarchy led by way of the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979.
From a political standpoint, Mojtaba hasn’t ever held public place of job. Against this, his father served as Iran’s 3rd president between 1981 and 1989.
Mojtaba Khamenei, middle, attends the yearly Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, rally in Tehran on Would possibly 31, 2019.
AP Photograph/Vahid Salemi, Report
Religiously talking, Mojtaba – like his father ahead of he become the excellent chief – is just a midranking cleric, although he teaches theology on the famend Qom Seminary. As together with his father, and for political functions, the Meeting of Professionals must lift Mojtaba’s standing to a grand ayatollah, even with out the needful spiritual credentials.
It’s value citing that Mojtaba is being thought to be for excellent chief along some seniors clerics whose credentials come nearer to that of a grand ayatollah. Alireza Arafi, whose identify has additionally arise as a possible successor, attained the rank of an ayatollah, or mujtahid, after publishing over 20 books and articles on Islamic jurisprudence and philosophy.
That stated, in 2022 his spiritual {qualifications} have been referred to as into query. That yr he joined the Meeting of Professionals with out taking the desired written examination administered by way of the Father or mother Council, despite the fact that he have been a member of it since 2019. As a substitute, he used to be appointed to the meeting by way of Khamenei via a felony loophole and with out being elected. This incident indicated that Arafi used to be liked by way of Khamenei and will have a bonus as a candidate for excellent chief.
Some other candidate, Ayatollah Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, is an Islamic thinker and theoretician. On this capability, he serves as the top of the Qom Academy of Islamic Sciences and has been a member of the Meeting of Professionals since 2016.
But some other contender is Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri. He used to be skilled within the Qom Seminary and become the Friday prayer chief of the town. Along Arafi, Bushehri serves as a deputy chairman of the Meeting of Professionals.
As the present war continues, or even with the Intervening time Management Council in position, the Meeting of Professionals is underneath immense power to swiftly rule on succession to maintain the machine.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s election, as I see it, would proceed the fashion of prioritizing political personal tastes over spiritual ideas that began in 1989.
This piece comprises subject matter from an previous one revealed on Would possibly 23, 2024.
