Washington’s allies within the Persian Gulf have discovered themselves ready they have got lengthy sought to steer clear of: at the entrance line and bearing the brunt of a widening Heart East war.
Having been dragged right into a warfare of selection by way of the U.S. – one that many world wide are calling a warfare of aggression – all six Gulf Cooperation Council international locations were struck by way of Iranian retaliatory assaults in reaction.
Army amenities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have all been hit. However the missiles and drones from Iran were aimed toward civilian infrastructure, too, together with airport, ports and accommodations within the opening days of U.S. and Israeli operations in opposition to Iran.
In scale and scope, the barrage marks a significant departure from Iran’s earlier reaction to being attacked by way of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. By contrast, right through a 12-day warfare in June 2025, Tehran best attacked one base in Qatar, or even then forewarned government in Doha.
As an alternative, what is going on within the area is a situation that planners in Persian Gulf capitals have lengthy warned about: a planned strive by way of Tehran to widen war and hit international locations it sees as allied to the West.
As a professional on Gulf dynamics, I see the unfurling occasions as undoing years of labor to de-risk the area and hanging in jeopardy the original promoting level and trade fashions that experience underpinned the Gulf states’ international upward thrust.
An intercepted projectile falls into the ocean close to Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah archipelago on March 1, 2026.
Fadel Senna/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
A cornered regime preventing for survival
Ever because the Oct. 7, 2023, assaults by way of Hamas and different Palestinian militants on Israel, policymakers within the Gulf international locations have sought to steer clear of the regionalization of war.
Qatar led the way in which in mediating between Israel and Hamas, whilst Oman has performed the similar with the U.S. and Iran. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has maintained common discussion with Iran to de-escalate regional tensions.
Every of the successive escalations between Israel and Iran – in April and October 2024 after which in June 2025, with the joint U.S.-Israeli moves – introduced the area nearer to, with out tipping over into, all-out warfare.
However Iran’s movements within the opening days following what Washington has named “Operation Epic Fury” have signaled that the comparative restraint it confirmed right through the 12-day warfare is firmly off the desk.
The Islamic Republic is now a cornered regime preventing for its survival. As such, it’s lashing out and looking for to unfold the ache to regional neighbors. The common sense on this means is that Gulf international locations may put power at the U.S., which would possibly concern the cascading prices of a protracted regional war.
Gulf international locations also are evident objectives for Iran. With Iran missing the aptitude to hit the U.S. mainland via standard guns, the American army bases that dot the Gulf area are throughout the succeed in of Tehran’s ballistic arsenal.
Mental affect on Gulf international locations
The dimensions of the Iranian assaults on objectives within the Gulf international locations within the opening two days of the present war underscores the level to which Iran’s reaction now differs from that of June 2025: Within the first two days of the war, Iran had fired no less than 390 ballistic missiles and 830 drones on the Gulf states. Via comparability, the Iranian strike at the Al-Udeid air base in Qatar closing yr concerned 14 ballistic missiles and used to be a one-off assault on a unmarried goal.
Air protection programs in Gulf international locations have neutralized lots of the incoming Iranian missiles, to this point, and precise injury and casualties were restricted to a handful of deaths and accidents within the dozens.
However it’s the intangible and mental affect on Gulf towns underneath assault that threatens to inflict profound injury at the popularity and symbol of towns akin to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. In recent times, Gulf Cooperation Council international locations have offered the Gulf as an oasis of balance and havens to reside and paintings.
That is particularly the case for Dubai, which has advertised itself strongly as a hub for trade and tourism. However additionally it is acceptable to different Gulf international locations as smartly, akin to Qatar, which is predicated closely on a gradual circulate of large-scale conferences and occasions.
Iran’s assaults on civilian infrastructure and comfortable objectives – airports in Bahrain, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, and accommodations in Bahrain and Dubai – serve to puncture this symbol of secure and protected Gulf capitals.
This number of objectives by way of Iran most probably displays a calculation that leaders within the Gulf international locations would in an instant really feel the overall affect of the warfare and push Washington arduous to discover a solution and fast.
The next concentrated on by way of Tehran on oil and gasoline amenities, together with Ras Laffan in Qatar and Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, serves as an extra and extremely consequential step. It has already brought about a forceful reaction from Qatar, which shot down two Iranian jets on March 2.
There may be worry amongst Gulf international locations that your next step within the ladder of escalation may contain concentrated on the desalination crops which are so important to overcoming water shortage within the area.
Prone to escalation
As essential hubs within the international economic system by way of distinctive feature in their reserves of oil and gasoline and centrality to world transport and aviation, the Gulf international locations are uniquely prone to additional escalation by way of Iran.
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha have invested closely in growing airways that serve as as “super-connectors” in a position to linking any two locations international with a forestall within the Gulf. A Feb. 28 drone strike on Dubai World Airport, the sector’s busiest for world shuttle, illustrated the affect that Iran’s uneven responses can have at the international hub style that has come to dominate international air shuttle.
Already, closure of airspaces over Qatar and the UAE, in addition to in Bahrain and Kuwait, has stranded tens of hundreds of passengers and created the most important disruption to international shuttle because the COVID-19 pandemic.
As well as, shipment operations crucial to native provide chains were closely impacted, on the similar time that seaborne business in the course of the Strait of Hormuz has been in a similar fashion interrupted.
While preliminary spikes in oil costs and insurance coverage premiums originally of the 12-day warfare closing yr fell away because it become transparent that power infrastructure used to be no longer considerably centered, the other has came about this time.
Peril and uncertainty
However the non permanent surprise to the worldwide economic system isn’t what is going to be of number one worry to the Gulf Cooperation Council participants. No longer because the Gulf disaster of 1990-91, with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and next Gulf Conflict, has the area confronted such a lot peril and uncertainty.
And that’s what Iran’s leaders are banking on. The assaults around the Gulf by way of Tehran don’t seem to be, in spite of everything, with out technique. The intent is to increase the war, thereby considerably elevating prices to the U.S. and its companions within the Gulf.
Tehran’s hope is that the commercial affect will inspire Gulf leaders to press Trump for an endgame. However in attacking capitals around the area, Iran dangers in all probability doing the other: rupturing any probability of making improvements to ties with opponents within the area and as an alternative pushing them additional again into Washington’s orbit after a length of glide.
