After the biggest buildup of U.S. warships and airplane within the Center East in a long time, American and Israeli army forces introduced an enormous attack on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.
President Donald Trump has referred to as the assaults “major combat operations” and has suggested regime trade in Tehran. Iranian media reported Ideally suited Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was once killed within the moves.
To higher perceive what this implies for the U.S. and Iran, Alfonso Serrano, a U.S. politics editor at The Dialog, interviewed Donald Heflin, a veteran diplomat who now teaches at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty.
In style assaults were reported throughout Iran, following weeks of U.S. army buildup within the area. What does the size of the assaults inform you?
I believe that Trump and his management are going for regime trade with those huge moves and with all of the ships and a few troops within the house. I believe there it will likely be a pair extra days’ value of moves. They’ll get started off with the time-honored means of attacking what’s referred to as command and keep an eye on, the nerve facilities for controlling Iran’s army. From media reporting, we already know that the place of abode of Khamenei was once attacked.
What’s the U.S. strategic finish sport right here?
Regime trade goes to be tough. We heard Trump nowadays name for the Iranian other folks to deliver the federal government down. Within the first position, that’s tough. It’s arduous for other folks and not using a palms of their arms to deliver down an overly tightly managed regime that has a large number of palms.
The second one level is that U.S. historical past in that house of the arena isn’t excellent with this. You could recall that all the way through the Gulf Conflict of 1990-1991, the U.S. mainly inspired the Iraqi other folks to stand up, after which made its personal determination to not assault Baghdad, to forestall brief. And that has now not been forgotten in Iraq or surrounding international locations. I might be stunned if we noticed a well-liked rebellion in Iran that actually had a possibility of bringing the regime down.
A bunch of fellows wave Iranian flags as they protest U.S. and Israeli moves in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 28, 2026.
AP Photograph/Vahid Salemi
Do you notice the potential for U.S. troops at the flooring to result in regime trade?
I will be able to stick my neck out right here and say that’s now not going to occur. I imply, there is also some small particular forces despatched in. That’ll be saved quiet for some time. However so far as massive numbers of U.S. troops, no, I don’t suppose it’s going to occur.
Two causes. First off, any president would really feel that was once extraordinarily dangerous. Iran’s a large nation with a large army. The dangers you can be taking are massive quantities of casualties, and also you won’t achieve what you’re looking to do.
However Trump, specifically, in spite of the army strike towards Iran and the only towards Venezuela, isn’t a large fan of huge army interventions and battle. He’s a man who will ship in fighter planes and small particular forces devices, however now not 10,000 or 20,000 troops.
And the cause of this is, all over his profession, he does neatly with slightly little bit of chaos. He doesn’t thoughts developing slightly little bit of chaos and working out a option to make a benefit at the different aspect of that. Conflict is an excessive amount of chaos. It’s actually arduous to are expecting what the end result goes to be, what all of the ramifications are going to be. During his first time period and the primary yr of his 2nd time period, he has proven no inclination to ship flooring troops anyplace.
Talking of President Trump, what are the dangers he faces?
One chance is occurring at this time, which is that the Iranians would possibly get fortunate or good and arrange to assault a actually excellent goal and kill a large number of other folks, like one thing in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv or a U.S. army base.
The second one chance is that the assaults don’t paintings, that the ideal chief and whoever else is regarded as the political management of Iran survives, and the U.S. finishes up with egg on its face.
The 3rd chance is that it really works to a undeniable extent. You’re taking out the highest other folks, however then who steps into their footwear? I imply, return and have a look at Venezuela. Most of the people would have concept that who was once going to finish up successful on the finish of that was once the top of the opposition. However it wound up being the vp of the outdated regime, Delcy Rodríguez.
I will see a equivalent situation in Iran. The regime has sufficient intensity to live to tell the tale the loss of life of a number of of its leaders. The article to observe will likely be who finishes up within the most sensible jobs, hardliners or realists. However the one establishment in Iran robust sufficient to prevail them is the military, the Innovative Guards specifically. Would that be an development for the U.S.? It depends upon what their perspective was once. The similar perspective that the vp of Venezuela has been taking, which is, “Look, this is a fact of life. We better negotiate with the Americans and figure out some way forward we can both live with.”
However those guys are beautiful hardcore revolutionaries. I imply, Iran has been below progressive management for 47 years. A majority of these guys are true believers. I don’t know if we’ll have the ability to paintings with them.
Smoke rises over Tehran on Feb. 28, 2026, after the U.S. and Israel introduced airstrikes on Iran.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu by means of Getty Pictures
Any remaining ideas?
I believe the timing is fascinating. For those who return to remaining yr, Trump, after being in place of work slightly and staring at the location between Israel and Gaza, was once given a gap, when Israeli High Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Qatar.
Numerous conservative Mideast regimes, who didn’t have an enormous downside with Israel, necessarily stated “That’s going too far.” And Trump was once in a position to make use of that as an excuse. He was once in a position to really say, “Okay, you’ve gone too far. You’re really taking risk with world peace. Everybody’s gonna sit at the table.”
I believe the similar factor’s taking place right here. I consider many nations would really like to look regime trade in Iran. However you’ll’t cross into the rustic and say, “We don’t like the political leadership being elected. We’re going to get rid of them for you.” What continuously occurs in that scenario is other folks start to rally across the flag. They start to rally across the executive when the bombs get started falling.
However in the previous few months, we’ve observed an enormous human rights crackdown in Iran. We would possibly by no means know the selection of other folks the Iranian regime killed in the previous few months, however 10,000 to fifteen,000 protesters turns out a minimal.
That’s the excuse Trump can use. You’ll be able to promote it to the Iranian other folks and say, “Look, they’re killing you in the streets. Forget about your problems with Israel and the U.S. and everything. They’re real, but you’re getting killed in the streets, and that’s why we’re intervening.” It’s a little of a fig leaf.
Now, as I stated previous, the issue with that is in case your subsequent line is, “You know, we’re going to really soften this regime up with bombs; now it’s your time to go out in the streets and bring the regime down.” I would possibly consume those phrases, however I don’t suppose that’s going to occur. The regime is simply too robust for it to be introduced down by means of naked arms.
This newsletter was once up to date on Feb 28, 2026, to incorporate affirmation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s loss of life.
