The Kurdish forces misplaced an enormous place within the face of the improvement of the ones from Damascus. The brand new Syrian regime used to be ready to skillfully maneuver to place an finish to the Kurdish venture in Rojava, at the verge of being utterly destroyed a lot to the pleasure of Turkey. Iraqi and Turkish Kurds don’t seem to be taking any possibilities to assist their compatriots in Syria. All this is occurring amid the indifference of the West, who’ve nonetheless relied closely at the Syrian Kurds right through the battle in opposition to Daesh…
Since its established order in 2015 as a formidable actor in Syria, the Kurdish militias of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have lately noticed their affect decline. Since early January 2026, their positions had been collapsing at a charge that astounds observers. After recapturing Aleppo, a big town within the northwest of the rustic, on January 11, Syrian troops dependable to the central executive led by way of Ahmed al-Chara pressured the FDS to withdraw from all of its positions at the Euphrates on January 17.
Since then, not anything has stopped the improvement of the Damascus troops, who’ve retaken all the province of Deir-es-Zor and lots of the province of Hasakah.
The SDF as soon as dominated a 3rd of Syria’s territory, Rojava, renamed in 2018 the Self sufficient Management of Northeast Syria (AANES), a in particular oil-rich area. Their affect has been decreased to not anything: they now keep an eye on just a pocket of Kobana, the town of Hasaka, and their historical stronghold within the northeast of the rustic across the town of Kamechli.
From a place of energy, the Syrian president calls for a cease-fire from 20 January 2026 for the overall absorption of the Kurdish militias into the Syrian military, in addition to the overall integration of the AANES right into a centralized and authoritarian Syrian state: subsequently, at this level, it’s tough to look what may just save you the approaching disappearance of Rojava. How may just an actor as clearly influential as FDS fail so briefly? And are we able to hope for a extra favorable consequence for Rojava than natural and easy absorption by way of the Syrian central state?
Map appearing Syrian provinces, together with Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Hasakeh. Sarfaraz82/Shutterstock Rojava disadvantaged of shelter
The obvious issue, but least emphasised within the press, that would provide an explanation for the FDS’s lack of ability to care for its place is because of the geographical specificities of northeastern Syria.
A lot of Rojava is crossed by way of the Jezire (Jazira in Arabic), an unlimited dry open simple without a actual topographic or hydrographic impediment alongside which a defensive position may well be constructed. The protection of Rojava used to be in accordance with the “wet cut” of the Euphrates, whose really extensive width and float made it tough for Syrian troops to advance. Kurdish positions alongside the river offered many stumbling blocks which were triumph over for the reason that January 20 settlement with Syrian government.
Between the Euphrates and the Khabur River, no impediment can gradual the development of the Syrian troops. Particularly for the reason that Habur River, like all the hydrographic basin of the Euphrates, flows from north to south within the area, and subsequently can neither hinder the improvement of Syrian troops shifting up the river from the south, nor save you a imaginable Turkish advance from the north.
Then, not like their Iraqi opposite numbers, the Syrian Kurds can’t rely on any mountain vary that may function a shelter. Alternatively, we all know the level to which the mountain sanctuaries performed a very powerful function within the Kurdish rebellions in opposition to the central Iraqi state (the Republic of Iraq that used to be created because of Abdel Karim Qassem’s coup). The Iraqi military failed to triumph over the Cheekha Dar Mountains in 1961 in Iraqi Kurdistan, thereby contributing to the advent of a haven for endemic guerrilla conflict within the Erbil area. Likewise, the rebellion in opposition to Saddam Hussein’s regime in 1991 succeeded in doing away with those mountainous spaces from state keep an eye on.
Disadvantaged of herbal refuges, Syrian Kurdish militias may just pay attention their defenses across the city facilities of Kobane, Hasakeh and Qamishli to repel Syrian forces. Alternatively, those towns chance being briefly besieged and condemned to give up – the entire extra briefly as a result of they have got a big Arab inhabitants that would get up in opposition to the Kurds. The territories of Rojava are certainly house to a powerful Arab minority, in a regional context marked by way of the awakening of Arab nationalism.
Pierre Firode can be some of the audio system on the webinar “In the face of upheaval in the world: what hope for peace?” » which we can arrange on March 10 at 6 p.m., in cooperation with the Normandy International Peace Discussion board, and which is able to center of attention at the state of affairs within the Center East in addition to Donald Trump’s forceful international relations and the mobilization of Gen Z around the globe. Unfastened registration right here.
The Arab part of the SDF has been deserting en masse since mid-January, and is the reason the velocity of the Syrian military’s speedy conquest of Deir ez-Zor province and all the Euphrates valley. Along with Arab nationalism this is occasionally fueled by way of anti-Kurdish resentment, the Syrian regime can depend at the improve of sheikhs, Arab tribal leaders who need to reintegrate a united and Arab Syria.
On this regard, Al-Charaa endured its control of the Idlib belt from 2017 to 2024, the place his staff, Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, made positive to contain the sheikhs within the control of the territory. If we needless to say Rojava paperwork a mosaic the place Arabs and Kurds combine, we notice that Kurds don’t have any actual shelter not like Iraq, which makes the protection of Rojava tough, if now not unattainable.
This defection of Arab tribes pressured the Kurds to hunt an settlement with Damascus and resulted within the January 31 accords through which Kurdish forces deserted their venture for an independent Rojava (this is, their keep an eye on over the management and assets of the territories within the northeast of the rustic) and as an alternative noticed them absorbed by way of the Syrian military.
Diplomatically remoted Rojava
Every other structural strategic weak point of Rojava is its entire diplomatic isolation, each domestically and the world over. The FDS can’t depend on its Iraqi Kurdish neighbors. Certainly, for the reason that 2010s, the independent Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Govt (RKG) has been engaged in a technique of rapprochement with Ankara, permitting it to export its oil thru Turkey and expand because of Turkish funding whilst having allies in opposition to the Iraqi central state.
In go back, the KRG should surrender sending guns and opponents to the PKK in Turkey, in addition to to the FDS in Syria. Iraqi Kurdistan may just in fact play the function of a cross-border sanctuary for Kurds in Syria who would then take pleasure in the sanctuary impact of the Iraqi-Syrian border to keep away from Damascus offensives. However this assumes the improve of the KRG; Alternatively, the latter will in no way chance crossing the crimson traces set by way of Ankara and giving up the end result of a decade of rapprochement and reconciliation with Turkey.
Rojava’s isolation may be noticed the world over the place the Kurds’ ancient supporters, American and Eu, seem to have deserted their former allies within the battle in opposition to the Islamic State. On this regard, we will spotlight the Syrian president’s diplomatic efforts to isolate the Kurds from their Western allies. By means of becoming a member of the battle in opposition to the Islamic State along the American citizens, Al-Charaa intends to transform america’ new spouse within the conflict on terror within the area, a serve as in the past reserved for the Kurds.
This switch of the battle in opposition to Daesh from the Kurds to Damascus renders US improve for the Kurds out of date. With this in thoughts, Al-Sharaa is making an attempt to seem as a competent spouse of america by way of accepting the switch of IS prisoners to Iraq or getting eager about securing camps housing the households of ex-IS opponents, reminiscent of Al Corridor.
The Syrian president may be prepared to not go Eu crimson traces in the case of world humanitarian legislation, as demonstrated by way of the hot opening of a humanitarian hall to help the civilians of Kobane. Al-Charaa is aware of the symbolic price of the town, which within the eyes of Eu societies represents the Kurdish battle in opposition to Daesh in 2014, and desires to keep away from media mobilization that may be brought about by way of a humanitarian tragedy on this town.
Deserted Kurds, discredited Westerners
Thus, each the bodily and human geographical traits provide an explanation for the nice lack of confidence through which Rojava lately reveals itself. Surrounded, condemned to offer protection to an indefensible territory, the FDS can’t rely at the improve of its Iraqi colleagues, nor at the improve of the Western powers, which nonetheless very much contributed to the development of Rojava.
As in 2019 right through the Turkish Peace Spring operation, the destiny of the Kurds in Syria may well be sacrificed at the altar of Realpolitik, which inspires the favoring of figuring out with regional powers like Turkey or Syria on the expense of recognize for other folks’s rights and world humanitarian legislation.
This means, shared by way of the White Area and partially by way of the Eu Union, nonetheless undermines the credibility and presence of Western powers within the Center East, which, by way of leaving behind their ancient allies such because the Kurds for companions in instances, give a contribution to the decline of democratic values on the planet.
