The demise of a significant cartel boss in Mexico has unleashed a violent backlash through which participants of the felony team have paralyzed some towns via blockades and assaults on belongings and safety forces.
A minimum of 73 other people have died because of the operation to seize Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho.” The top of the Jalisco New Technology Cartel used to be severely wounded right through a firefight with government on Feb. 22, 2026. He later died in custody.
As knowledgeable in felony teams and drug trafficking in Latin The us who has been learning Mexico’s cartels for 20 years, I see the violent aftermath of the operation as a part of a development through which Mexican governments have opted for high-profile hits that frequently lead handiest to extra violence with out addressing the wider safety issues that plague massive swaths of the rustic.
Who used to be ‘El Mencho’?
Like many different figures excited by Mexico’s drug trafficking, Oseguera Cervantes began on the backside and made his manner up the ranks. He spent a while in jail within the U.S., the place he will have cast alliances with felony gangs sooner than being deported again to Mexico in 1997. There, he attached with the Milenio Cartel, a company that first allied, after which fought with, the tough Sinaloa Cartel.
A sought after poster for ‘El Mencho.’
United States Division of State/Wikimedia Commons
Lots of the data to be had issues to the Jalisco New Technology Cartel forming underneath El Mencho round 2010, following the killing of Ignacio “Nacho” Coronel Villarreal, a Sinaloa Cartel chief and primary hyperlink with the Milenio Cartel.
Since 2015, Jalisco New Technology Cartel has been identified for its blatant assaults towards safety forces in Mexico – reminiscent of gunning down a helicopter in that yr. And it has expanded its presence each throughout Mexico and the world over.
In Mexico, it’s mentioned to have a presence in all states. In some, the cartel has an instantaneous presence and really sturdy native networks. In others, it has cultivated alliances with different trafficking organizations.
But even so drug trafficking, the Jalisco New Technology Cartel could also be engaged in oil robbery, other people smuggling and extortion. In consequence, it has change into some of the tough cartels in Mexico.
What affect will his demise have at the cartel?
There are a couple of possible eventualities, and so much is dependent upon what succession plans Jalisco New Technology had within the match of Oseguera Cervantes’ seize or killing.
Usually, a majority of these operations – through which safety forces take out a cartel chief – result in extra violence, for quite a few causes.
Mexicans have already skilled the instant aftermath of Oseguera Cervantes’ demise: retaliation assaults, blockades and legit makes an attempt to forestall civilians from going out. That is very similar to what happened after the seize of drug lord Ovidio Guzmán López in Sinaloa in 2019 and his 2nd seize in 2023.
Violence flares in two tactics following such high-profile captures and killings of cartel leaders.
Within the quick time period, there may be retaliation. In this day and age, participants of the Jalisco New Technology Cartel are in the hunt for revenge towards Mexico’s safety forces and also are looking to assert their regional authority regardless of El Mencho’s demise.
Those retaliatory campaigns have a tendency to be violent and flashy. They come with blockades in addition to assaults towards safety forces and civilians.
Then there may be the longer-term violence related to any succession. This may take the type of those that are beneath Oseguera Cervantes in rank combating for regulate. However it could possibly additionally consequence from rival teams looking to benefit from any management vacuum.
The extent and period of violence rely on a couple of elements, reminiscent of whether or not there used to be a succession plan and what sort of alliances are in position with different cartels. However normally, operations through which a cartel boss is got rid of result in extra violence and fragmentation of felony teams.
In fact, other people like Oseguera Cervantes who’ve violated rules and engaged in violence want to be captured. However ultimately, that doesn’t do anything else to dismantle networks of illegal activity or cut back the scale in their operations.
What’s the present state of safety in Mexico?
The upsurge in violence after Oseguera Cervantes’ killing happens as some signs in Mexico’s safety scenario looked to be bettering.
As an example, murder charges declined in 2025 – which is a very powerful indicator of safety.
However different measures are appalling. Disappearances are nonetheless unsettlingly excessive. The truth that many Mexicans revel in at the flooring is one the place felony organizations stay tough and embedded within the native ecosystems that attach state brokers, politicians and criminals in complicated networks.
Prison organizations are engaged in what we teachers name “criminal governance.” They have interaction in quite a lot of actions and control existence in communities – every so often coercively, however every so often additionally with some extent of legitimacy from the inhabitants.
In some states like Sinaloa, regardless of the operations to take out cartel’s leaders, the illicit economies are nonetheless intensive and winning. However what’s extra essential is that ranges of violence stay excessive and the inhabitants continues to be struggling deeply.
The day by day fact for other people in a few of these areas continues to be one in all concern.
And within the larger scheme of items, felony networks are nonetheless very tough – they’re embedded within the nation’s economic system and politics, and connect with communities in complicated tactics.
How does the El Mencho operation are compatible Mexico’s technique on cartels?
The previous two governments vowed to scale back the militarization of safety forces. However the energy of the army in Mexico has in truth expanded.
The federal government of President Claudia Sheinbaum sought after a large, visual hit at a time when the U.S. is pushing for extra militarized insurance policies to counter Mexico’s trafficking organizations.
However this dynamic isn’t new. Maximum U.S. and Mexican coverage referring to drug trafficking organizations has traditionally emphasised those high-profile captures – even though it’s only for temporary positive aspects.
Violence has flared in Mexico’s Jalisco state for the reason that demise of Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes.
Arturo Montero/AFP by means of Getty Pictures
It’s more straightforward to mention “we captured a drug lord” than deal with broader problems with corruption or impunity. More often than not when those cartel leaders are captured or killed, there may be normally no broader justice. It isn’t accompanied with government investigating disappearances, murders, corruption and even essentially halting the waft of gear.
Captures and killings of cartel leaders serve a strategic function of unveiling that one thing is being achieved, however the effectiveness of such insurance policies ultimately could be very restricted.
In fact, casting off a drug lord isn’t a nasty factor. But when it does no longer include a broader dismantling of felony networks and an accompanying focal point on justice, then the principle crimes that those teams dedicate – homicides, disappearances and extortion – will proceed to impact the day by day lifetime of other people. And the impact on illicit flows is, at easiest, meager.
