A US intervention in Iran gave the impression impending this week. US and UK troops had been pulled out of a number of bases across the Center East, US army property have been moved into place and the USA president, Donald Trump, had reassured protesters at the streets of Iran that “help is on its way”.
However then the USA president informed newshounds at the afternoon of January 14 that he had won knowledge from “very good sources” that “the killing has stopped” and that deliberate executions of protesters would no longer now continue.
So the place does this go away the protest motion in Iran? In two and a part weeks of protests around the nation, greater than 2,500 persons are reported to had been killed and greater than 18,000 folks arrested. The theocratic regime which has dominated the rustic for the reason that 1979 revolution has been shaken to its core, however – like on a number of events up to now 25 years – seems to have survived but any other national wave of protest and dissent from a inhabitants that overwhelmingly rejects its oppressive governance.
We talk to Scott Lucas, a professional in Center East politics at College Faculty Dublin, who addresses a number of key problems.
Do you suppose a US intervention in Iran is now off the playing cards?
I hate to make this a tale about Donald Trump. It will have to focal point at the essential folks – the Iranians who’re risking their lives to pursue rights and reforms – however right here is going.
The logical manner for any US management bearing in mind intervening in a scenario like that is to believe each the location within Iran in addition to the regional dynamics. However the USA president does no longer act logically. He’s a multitude of contradictions, short of to be a bully and a “president of peace” on the similar time.
So he blusters for days that he’s going to unharness the USA army on Iran’s regime. However he’s additionally seduced by means of alerts from Tehran that it’s keen to go into negotiations with him.
On Wednesday, Trump officers let Ecu and Israeli opposite numbers know that US moves are impending. However Iran’s leaders ship any other sign: we’ve stopped killing protesters and we can no longer execute them. So Trump is going again into his “maybe they will speak to me as the president of peace” mode. So the moves had been suspended.
Heading off what can have been a disastrous war of words between the USA and Iran is a reduction for the area – and the broader global. However the Iranians risking their lives at the streets will really feel deserted and discouraged.
There were a number of waves of protest this century. Are issues any other this time?
I recall to mind those national protests, going again greater than 25 years, as waves hitting the Iranian shore. There used to be a primary wave in 1999, which started within the universities, for political and social freedoms. Ten years later, there used to be a a long way better wave – the biggest for the reason that 1979 Islamic Revolution – after the regime manipulated the 2009 presidential election.
In 2019, the protests had been over financial prerequisites, in particular the costs of petrol, meals and crucial items. It used to be most effective 3 years till the following wave, the 2022 marches which lasted for months for “women, life, freedom”.
On each and every instance, in the course of the mixture of fatal pressure, detentions, cut-off communique and decapitation of the opposition’s management, the regime has quelled the general public shows. However each the discontent and the will for freedoms are under the skin, ready to propel any other wave.
That during December 2025 got here the catalyst of the collapsing forex, which fed an inflation threatening each families and distributors. Alternatively, the broader aspirations of many Iranians quickly expanded this right into a renewed problem to the regime’s legitimacy.
Ali Khamenei is already reportedly making plans his retirement. How does the Islamic Republic adapt if it needs to live on?
In my opinion, I don’t suppose the ideal chief will hand over till he’s too unwell to hold on. So whilst much less distinguished each day, he’s nonetheless head of the regime for the foreseeable long term.
The opposite query is even more straightforward to respond to for the reason that regime has given its reaction. It does no longer adapt: it refers back to the similar political playbook which it has used for the reason that first large wave of pupil protests in 1999. Intimidate the opposition and the protesters. Detain them. Abuse them. Drive them to “confess”. Kill them if vital. Limit communications.
Best leaders: along Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the present ideal leafer Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is nearly synonymous with the theory of the Islamic Republic.
EPA/Abedin Taherkenareh
After which name out your supporters to the streets. Use state media and your spokespeople – considered one of them, the principle unofficial English-language speaking head, is a former colleague from the College of Birmingham, Seyed Mohammad Marandi – to insist that authentic Iranians again the regime and that the protesters are puppets of the USA and Israel.
Israel and the Arab states prompt Trump in opposition to a US intervention. Why?
Whilst Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the opposite Gulf States get pleasure from a weakened Iranian regime, they don’t want one that collapses with out an glaring successor.
Satirically, in addition they know that US army intervention may just beef up the Iranian management. Since 1999, the regime has trusted portrayal of its warring parties as American and Israeli brokers. An American assault strengthens that narrative.
However the basic calculation is most likely {that a} US attack will lead to instability all the way through the area. Iran would possibly retaliate in opposition to American positions or the ones of the Gulf States. It might threaten the Strait of Hormuz, by which about 20% of seaborne LNG (liquefied herbal fuel) and 25% of oil passes. Whilst its allies within the Center East had been weakened, from Hezbollah to the Houthis, there nonetheless may well be penalties in Lebanon, Yemen, and different international locations.
May just Reza Pahlavi unify the rustic or supply an meantime answer?
I’m sceptical about parachuting the overdue Shah’s son into Iran as its “leader”, whether or not at the throne or any other seat of energy. He left the rustic at age 18 in 1979. Since then, having declared himself Shah and chief of a government-in-exile, he has cast ties with monarchist teams, however has been rejected by means of others within the opposition.
Unifying determine? Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi.
EPA/Salvatore De Nolfi
Some Iranian diaspora teams and their in another country supporters are fervent proponents of Pahlavi, and a few within Iran for sure would favour him as an possibility. However from speaking to my non-public contacts, and all of the proof you spot reported within the media, and in surveys equivalent to the only printed in The Dialog on January 12, maximum Iranians aren’t in search of a go back to the monarchy.
Other people additionally know from the revel in of neighbouring Iraq in 2003, that enforcing a pacesetter from out of doors would possibly not determine smartly. The USA-supervised management beneath Ahmad Chalabi, who – like Pahlavi – had spent greater than 40 years out of doors the rustic, quickly collapsed. Iraq went thru an insurgency and civil warfare by which masses of 1000’s had been killed.
That raises a much broader, extra essential factor by which Pahlavi will have to be put aside. For all of the scale and attainable of the protests, the opposition does no longer have the organisation for its political, social and financial ambitions. The regime has noticed to that with its decapitation technique, imprisoning distinguished activists from all spheres of Iranian society. How can protesters and the opposition be supported in creating that organisation?
The regime has imprisoned a lot of in style democracy figures – may just any of them be a reputable chief?
I don’t recall to mind this in the case of a “leader” however in the case of the organisation to which I simply referred.
Narges Mohammadi: the jailed ladies’s rights activist gained the Nobel peace prize in 2023.
EPA/Abedin Taherkenareh
Lengthy-time political prisoners come with politicians equivalent to Mostafa Tajzadeh, the previous internal minister who has been in the back of bars for many of the previous 16 years. Then there are human rights activists equivalent to Nobel peace laureate Narges Mohammadi and Majid Tavakoli. There also are legal professionals equivalent to Nasrin Sotoudeh, in addition to unionists, scholars and reporters.
Mir Hossein Mousavi used to be high minister between 1981 and 1989 (when the regime abolished the function) and the person who reportedly led the primary spherical of the 2009 presidential election, sooner than the regime’s intervention. Mousavi has been beneath strict area arrest along with his spouse the artist, instructional and activist Zahra Rahnavard, since February 2011.
Mousavi’s unlock can be essential symbolically. Freedom for others can be a sensible spice up to the opposition: they might give you the makings of an organised motion which might interact the regime for the adjustments wanted for political, financial and social house.
This is the reason, slightly than headlining Donald Trump’s bluster about army motion, I want folks would focal point on freeing those prisoners in addition to opening up communications inside of Iran, and between Iran and the out of doors global.
