Military generals in Guinea-Bissau seized energy on Nov. 26, 2025 – the eve of a scheduled reliable declaration of the winner within the West African country’s presidential election.
Alleging a destabilization plot by means of unnamed politicians and drug lords, the army suspended the electoral procedure and blocked the result of a competition that each the now former president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, and the opposition candidate had claimed victory in.
Common Horta Inta-a, the top of the presidential guard, used to be due to this fact sworn in as “transitional” chief and Ilídio Vieira Té, an in depth Embaló best friend, used to be appointed top minister. The timing of the improvement and Embaló’s connection to the brand new executive figures have led home opposition teams and a few West African political leaders to say the coup used to be staged to facilitate Embaló’s endured rule by means of proxy.
Regardless of the veracity of such claims, the occasions level to each a deepening regional disaster of democracy and the shortcoming of Guinea-Bissau to flee its coup-prone historical past. Certainly, as a student who has compiled and up to date a dataset of coup varieties and documented their historical past in Guinea-Bissau since its independence from Portugal in 1974, I consider the rustic is stuck in a vintage coup lure wherein poverty and coups d’etat are mutually reinforcing.
The Sahel coup belt assists in keeping increasing
The occasions in Guinea-Bissau replicate a so-called polycrisis for nations in and across the Sahel belt, sandwiched between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This area has, since 2020, turn out to be the worldwide epicenter of each terrorism and coups – such a lot in order that it’s infrequently dubbed the Sahel “coup belt”.
The occasions in Guinea-Bissau, which is positioned simply south of the Sahel area, constitute the eleventh a hit coup in Africa since 2020 – and the second one a hit one in 2025 after the army takeover in Madagascar in October following a wave of Gen Z protests.
Certainly, just about three-quarters of all coup makes an attempt on the earth since 2020 have taken position in West Africa or the Sahel. The area accounts for a fair upper percentage of a hit coups since 2020. This remarkable cluster of coups is available in a area that accounts for not up to 10% of each Africa’s inhabitants and the collection of states on the earth.
The Sahel area is answerable for round 75% of new coups
Graph made out of the Colpus Dataset.
John Joseph Chin, CC BY-SA
There were many causes for the quite a lot of coups within the Sahel since 2020. Takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, for instance, had been pushed partially by means of rising terrorist insurgencies, Russian disinformation and emerging anti-French sentiment.
In contrast, information from the battle tracking group Armed Warfare Location and Match Knowledge, or ACLED, presentations little or no battle or protest in Guinea-Bissau main as much as the coup. As an alternative, occasions seem to lie in political opportunism within the wake of an election marred by means of flaws and allegations of illegitimacy.
Guinea-Bissau’s ‘coup trap’
Sooner than the most recent army takeover, Guinea-Bissau used to be already the fourth-most coup-prone state in sub-Saharan Africa, having suffered 5 failed coup makes an attempt and 3 a hit ones since 1974. Coups toppled the single-party regime of the African Birthday party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde in 1980, the authoritarian regime of Kumba Yala in 2003 and overthrew democracy and put in an oblique army regime in 2012. In the meantime, a failed coup strive in 1998 sparked the rustic’s handiest civil conflict.
Since 2020, Guinea-Bissau had suffered one bona fide coup strive, in February 2022, along with a mutiny in overdue 2022 that Embaló condemned as a coup strive. The coup of November 2025 used to be itself foreshadowed by means of an alleged coup plot that used to be printed on the finish of October, when numerous senior officials had been arrested.
All of that implies a function of this sort of instability: Coups beget extra coups. If truth be told, seven of the 9 international locations that experience suffered a hit coups since 2020 had already suffered a a hit coup inside the earlier twenty years.
And while just about 30% of countries with coups since 2005 suffered a coup once more between 2020 and 2025, states that lacked a up to date coup historical past – even deficient nations in Africa – had been a lot much less more likely to undergo a coup after 2020.
Coup as a function, no longer a worm
The Kinds of Democracy venture, which surveys mavens to measure other ranges of democracy, declared in 2022 that Guinea-Bissau had turn out to be an “electoral autocracy” – a time period to indicate governments which might be elected via unfair and fraudulent approach and pass directly to rule in an authoritarian method.
The country has endured to slip into autocracy since then.
Embaló used an alleged coup plot in December 2023 as a pretext to dissolve the opposition-dominated legislature. The rustic has no longer had a sitting legislature since.
Previous in 2025, Embaló went again on his promise to step down on the finish of his first time period and as an alternative introduced he used to be operating for a 2d time period. For the reason that Embaló had barred the primary opposition social gathering from operating, many feared he may attempt to scouse borrow the election, if vital, just like Paul Biya is claimed to have finished in within reach Cameroon in October 2025.
No longer a ‘good coup,‘ but a ‘veto coup’
When requested about fresh coups in Africa, Rwandan President Paul Kagame insisted that some coups – those who oppose corruption and unhealthy governance – are “good coups.” Even though students have debated how widespread so-called excellent coups had been in Africa, there may be no doubt that the hot case higher suits the vintage trend of a so-called “veto coup,” intended to stop the winner of the election from taking workplace.
Certainly, the presence of outstanding Embaló allies for the time being Guinea-Bissau executive lends credence to opposition cries of foul play. The brand new executive’s promise of democratic elections in a yr must likewise be handled with skepticism. The promised electoral timetable has no longer been saved in another fresh coup case within the Sahel, the place juntas stay entrenched.
As such, even supposing Guinea-Bissau used to be turning into an increasing number of autocratic already, the most recent takeover is most likely a remedy worse than the illness. Whether or not the world group that has condemned the coup – from the United Countries to the African Union to the Financial Group of West African Countries – is keen or ready to take credible steps to assist information Guinea-Bissau again to constitutional rule seems unsure, given the hot instance of different coup-hit international locations around the continent.
