The acclamation of Alexander Lukashenko as Belarus president for a 7th immediately time period was once showed on January 26. The electoral government introduced that the person referred to as “Europe’s last dictator” – the one president the rustic has had because it held its first “democratic” election in 1994 – had received 87% of the vote.
Maximum western leaders have brushed aside the end result as a “sham”. Germany’s international minister, Annalena Baerbock, posted on X that “the people of Belarus had no choice”, whilst the Polish international minister, Radosław Sikorski, commented that he was once shocked “only” 87.6% of the citizens had voted for Lukashenko: “Will the rest fit inside the prisons?” he requested.
However the consequence was once by no means actually unsure. Sikorski’s barb about jailing opponent figures is correct at the cash. A lot of Belarus’s primary opposition figures are already in the back of bars and the remaining are in exile. And, simply to verify of items, smartly prior to the marketing campaign began – in January 2024 – Lukashenko modified the regulation in order that handiest the ones individuals who had been had lived completely in Belarus for two decades may stand for the presidency. This intended that probably the most distinguished opposition chief no longer now in jail in Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was once ineligible.
Tsikhanouskaya fled after the election to keep away from the destiny of her husband, Sergei Tsikhanouski, who was once arrested in 2020, two days after mentioning his candidacy for the election. He has since been jailed for 18 years on fees of “preparation of mass disorder” and “incitement to hatred”. Tsikhanouskaya was once herself attempted in absentia and sentenced to fifteen years for top treason, inciting social hatred, makes an attempt to take hold of energy, forming an “extremist” workforce and harming nationwide safety.
So with out a actual opposition allowed to face, Lukashenko’s reelection was once just about a foregone conclusion. A survey carried out by means of the suppose tank Chatham Area on the finish of 2024 discovered that about one-third of Belarusians mentioned they supported Lukashenko – and these kind of folks additionally commented they idea the rustic was once getting in the proper course.
Holding Belarus out of the struggle was once a significant component for those electorate. An extra 41% professed to be impartial. When it got here to electoral integrity, 36% agreed or quite agreed that the end result was once predetermined. Amongst pro-democracy electorate that quantity rose to 77%.
Govt in exile
Tsikhanouskaya leads a central authority in exile from Lithuania, heading what her workforce has referred to as a “united transitional cabinet”, tasked with “ensuring the transition of power from dictatorship to democracy, and promoting fair and free elections”. The cupboard is supported by means of a countrywide coordinating council of 70 contributors which is elected on a two-yearly foundation and who primary serve as is to ascertain the bottom laws for a “ democratic and rule-of-law-based state”.
Tsikhanouskaya’s efforts had been supported by means of a spread of nations, together with america which, in August 2020, advised the Lukashanko regime to “actively engage Belarusian society, including through the newly established National Coordination Council, in a way that reflects what the Belarusian people are demanding, for the sake of Belarus’ future, and for a successful Belarus”.
However being a pacesetter in exile manner it’s tricky to bridge the barrier to Belarusians at house.
Political prisoners
Different opposition figures are principally nonetheless in jail. Sergei Tsikhanouski was once lately was once charged with violating jail laws, which can building up his present 18-year sentence.
His fellow opposition chief, Viktar Babaryka – who was once additionally arrested within the run-up to the 2020 election – was once given 14 years on trumped-up up fees. His assistant Maria Kolesnikova, who took over from him as a protest chief, was once jailed after publicly destroying her passport so she may no longer be forcibly exiled by means of the government.
Trustworthy best friend: Lukashenko with Vladimir Putin at a gathering of the Splendid Eurasian Financial Council in St Petersburg in December 2024.
EPA-EFE/Gavril Grigorov/Spunik/Kremlin pool
Despite the fact that no longer a part of the political opposition any other distinguished determine, Ales Bialiatski, a human rights activist who received the Nobel peace prize in 2022 was once sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2023 for smuggling and allegedly financing the 2020 protests.
Overtures to the west
For the reason that summer time of 2024, 200 political prisoners had been launched, a conceivable signal that Lukashenko desires to reset members of the family with the west. He did one thing equivalent in 2015, the yr after Russia annexed Crimea.
On the time his liberate of six opposition activists was once noticed as a conceivable signal the Belarus chief was once involved his nation might be in peril from Russian aggression and he was once having a look to stay with the EU and america.
Kolesnikova was once lately allowed a jail discuss with from her father for the primary time in just about two years. In the meantime a journalist was once given get admission to to Babaryka in prison and allowed to document a video of the jailed dissident for his daughter.
If the discharge of prisoners and reappearance of the 2 jailed dissidents are certainly an try to reset members of the family with the west, the truth he nonetheless has greater than 1,000 political prisoners in the back of bars will give Lukashenko numerous diplomatic leeway.
However given Lukashenko’s shut alignment with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the truth that he allowed Belarus for use as a release pad for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s not going that many western nations might be received over.
Lukashenko has proven himself to be an irritant again and again over time. In 2021, the yr prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Belarus chief was once roundly criticised for seeking to spark a migrant disaster in neighbouring Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Belarus was once reportedly flying Iraqi and Afghan migrants from the Center East and bussing them to the border the place Belarusian troops had been seeking to push them throughout.
So far as armed resistance to Lukashenko is worried, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a bunch of Belarusian volunteers has been preventing as a part of Ukraine’s military since March 2022. The regiment’s said intention is to lend a hand Ukraine combat off Russia and turn into a part of the EU and Nato and to attempt for Belarus to do the similar.
The following election is because of be held in 2030. Alexander Lukashenko might be 75.
